Czechia host England at the Fortuna Arena on Tuesday with kick-off scheduled for 19:45. Both teams are looking for their first points in Nations League Group A3 after losing their opening fixtures. England were beaten 3-2 by world champions Spain at Wembley despite leading at half-time. Marc Guehi's error allowed Lamine Yamal to score inside two minutes before Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane turned the game around.
Kane then missed a penalty early in the second half. Nico O'Reilly lost possession before Alex Baena equalised, while Mikel Oyarzabal completed the comeback after 74 minutes.
Spain deserved their victory after generating 3.12 xG from 15 shots and creating six big chances. England produced 1.74 xG from 13 attempts, although 0.79 of their total came from the penalty.
Thomas Tuchel's side showed more attacking intent after a difficult opening period. England recorded 36 touches inside the Spain penalty area and recovered possession regularly in advanced positions, but individual mistakes left their defence exposed.
Czechia also started the competition with a defeat as Croatia left Prague with a 2-1 victory. Luka Modric opened the scoring shortly after half-time before Adam Karabec equalised. Marco Pasalic headed the winner after 77 minutes.
Croatia controlled most of the game, registering 16 shots, 12 efforts inside the box and 27 opposition-box touches. Czechia managed five attempts and eight touches inside the Croatia area while losing the xG battle 1.84 to 0.92.
England should dominate possession and create chances, but their defensive record leaves room for Czechia to contribute. Tuchel's team have conceded 13 goals across their last six matches, with both teams scoring in every game.
How the bookies view it
Czechia are 17/2, carrying an implied probability of 10.5%. The draw is 17/4, representing 19%, while England are 7/17, giving them a 70.8% chance.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/11, implying 57.9%. Both teams to score is available at 11/10, representing 47.6%.
Head to head: Three Lions hold the advantage
England have won two of the last three meetings between the countries.
Raheem Sterling scored the only goal when England beat Czechia 1-0 during the group stage of Euro 2020. Czechia recorded a 2-1 qualifying victory in Prague in October 2019 after Zdenek Ondrasek scored the winner five minutes from time.
England won the reverse fixture 5-0 at Wembley. Sterling scored three times, with Kane converting a penalty before Tomas Kalas put through his own net.
The previous two meetings in Prague both produced goals for Czechia. England have recorded one clean sheet across those three recent encounters.
Player to watch: Anthony Gordon to continue his form
Anthony Gordon was England's main attacking threat against Spain, scoring after 36 minutes with a composed finish following an exchange of passes with Jude Bellingham.
His club performances also support his selection. Gordon has registered four assists in 397 league minutes for Barcelona this season, despite starting the campaign without a goal. He has created seven chances, including three big chances, from 0.94 xA.
The winger has taken 12 shots, registered 2.12 xG and hit the target four times. His lack of a league goal represents a substantial gap between his output and the quality of the opportunities he has received.
Gordon has also completed 12 dribbles at a 60% success rate and recorded 34 touches inside the opposition penalty area. His speed and direct running offer England a clear route into the space behind Czechia's defence.
Including his goal against Spain, Gordon has produced one goal and four assists since the World Cup.
Predicted lineups
Czechia (4-2-3-1): Hornicek, Coufal, Hranac, Chaloupek, Slama, Sadilek, Cerv, Ambros, Sulc, Radosta, Hlozek.
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford, Alexander-Arnold, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, Lewis-Skelly, Anderson, Saka, Bellingham, Gordon, Kane.
Anything else catch the eye
England's defensive decline is difficult to ignore. Tuchel's side have conceded 13 times in their last six matches after allowing only seven goals across his first 17 games in charge.
They have scored at least twice in each of those six fixtures, including matches against France, Argentina and Spain. Their attacking quality remains clear, but the balance between defence and attack has changed.
Czechia have scored in three of their four matches since the start of the World Cup. They found the net against South Korea, South Africa and Croatia, with Mexico the only team to keep them out.
Their performance against Croatia showed the likely pattern for this fixture. Czechia spent long periods defending and made 42 clearances, but Karabec's equaliser proved they still carry a threat when opportunities arrive.
England should create enough chances to win. Czechia's defence allowed Croatia 16 shots and three big chances, while Gordon, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham and Kane give the visitors several attacking routes.
The concern surrounds England at the other end. Spain created six big chances despite recording only 15 touches inside the penalty area. Czechia need fewer opportunities than Spain, but England's run of six matches without a clean sheet gives the hosts a route to goal.
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