Chelsea v Leeds
Chelsea

Chelsea vs Leeds United

, KO: 15:00 , Wembley Stadium
Leeds United

Manager-less Chelsea take on Leeds United at Wembley on Sunday afternoon in the second of the FA Cup semi-final ties.

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Liam Rosenior was finally relieved of his duties just four months after taking charge of the Blues following a thumping 3-0 defeat away at Brighton & Hove Albion – on an evening my Bet of the Day landed.

That result means Chelsea have now lost each of their previous five Premier League fixtures, all without scoring, meaning they’ve slipped down to eighth position, with their hopes of Champions League qualification virtually over.

Chelsea only win in their previous eight matches did come in this competition, as they thrashed League One basement dwellers Port Vale 7-0 at the Bridge.

After knocking out Championship opposition in their opening three ties, Leeds edged past fellow Premier League side West Ham United in the quarter-finals on penalties after blowing a two-goal lead inside 90 minutes.

Daniel Farke’s men also managed to stretch their unbeaten streak in the Premier League to five games in midweek, as they twice came from behind to draw 2-2 away at Bournemouth.

Survival looks almost guaranteed for the Whites now, as that point at the Vitality moved them nine points clear of the relegation zone.

How the bookies view it: Blues unconvincing favourites

Despite losing seven of their previous eight matches in all competitions, Chelsea have been installed as favourites to reach the final, with bet365 pricing them at just 4/7 To Qualify, with the win inside 90 minutes 11/10.

Leeds are 5/4 to reach their first FA Cup final since 1973, with the win in regulation time 12/5.

Head to head: Leeds with the advantage this season

Leeds are unbeaten in both of their Premier League meetings with Chelsea this season, winning 3-1 at Elland Road at the beginning of January, before coming from two goals down to draw 2-2 at Stamford Bridge two months later. 

These two clubs famously met in the 1970 FA Cup final, with Chelsea winning 2-1 in a replay at Old Trafford after a 2-2 draw at Wembley 18 days before.

Players to watch: Look no further than Noah

Noah Okafor has been in terrific form for Leeds over the past couple of months, scoring four times and providing three assists across his previous eight appearances for the Whites.

One of those goals included the equaliser at Stamford Bridge when the two sides last faced off, and the Swiss international appears good value at 21/10 at bet365 to Score or Assist.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Predicted line-ups:

Chelsea are still without the injured Filip Jorgensen, Levi Colwill, Reece James, Estevao and Jamie Gittens, whilst Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro are doubts.

Leeds will be missing the injured Ilia Gruev, whilst Jayden Bogle, Sebastiaan Bornauw and Anton Stach are all doubts.

Chelsea: Sanchez, Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella, Santos, Caicedo, Neto, Garnacho, Fernandez, Pedro

Leeds United: Perri, Rodon, Bijol, Struijk, Justin, Ampadu, Tanaka, Gudmundsson, Aaronson, Okafor, Calvert-Lewin

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Chelsea reaction with both teams to score

Both teams to score stands out as the most likely outcome based on the numbers.

Chelsea’s home profile shows balance rather than control. They average 1.69 xG and 1.50 xGA, with both teams to score landing in 53% of home matches. They produce 4.18 shots on target but still allow 3.76, showing regular chances at both ends.

Leeds mirror that structure. They average 1.49 xG and 1.41 xGA, with both teams to score also landing in 53% of games. Away from home they concede 4.82 shots on target, one of the higher figures, but still create 3.41 themselves.

Clean sheet data supports it further. Leeds keep a clean sheet in just 12% of away matches, while Chelsea fail to score in only 24% at home, meaning both sides usually contribute.

Over 2.5 goals sits at 65% for Chelsea and 56% for Leeds, reinforcing open game states.

Both teams to score is the most consistent angle.

Anything else catch the eye?

Chelsea decided to bin Rosenior in midweek following a dismal four months in charge of the club, and you would think they would get some sort of boost.

However, unlike their opponents, Leeds arrive in this clash in good form and full of confidence, and the 11/8 on offer for them just to qualify appeals to me.

As alluded to, Farke’s men are also unbeaten in both Premier League meetings with the Blues this season, and have an ideal opportunity to reach a first FA Cup final in 53 years.

Chelsea vs Leeds United Betting Tips & Predictions
Leeds United To Qualify
11/8
PaddyPower
Noah Okafor to Score or Assist
21/10
Bet365
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All betting odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

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