Chelsea face Juventus at Kai Tak Stadium in Hong Kong on Wednesday, kicking off at 7.30pm local time, (12.30pm BST), as part of the Hong Kong Football Festival.
Chelsea head into the new season under Xabi Alonso after a turbulent campaign that ended with a tenth-place Premier League finish and managerial changes following the departures of Enzo Maresca and Liam Rosenior.
Despite the disappointing league position, the underlying numbers suggested a side capable of much more. Chelsea generated 60.3 xG across the campaign, averaging 1.59 per game, the sixth-best attacking return in the division, but an xGA of 56.3, 1.48 per match, ranked only 16th and ultimately undermined their progress.
Their xPTS of 52.37 placed them 11th, reflecting a team with enough quality going forward but too many defensive weaknesses. Summer business has been led by the British record signing of Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa as Xabi Alonso begins the task of reshaping the squad.
Juventus also enter a new era after an inconsistent Serie A campaign. Igor Tudor departed in October with the club sitting sixth, Luciano Spalletti took over and eventually guided Juventus to the same finishing position, missing Champions League qualification by a single point.
Their underlying numbers paint a far stronger picture than the league table. Juventus produced 68.9 xG and conceded just 33.0 xGA across 38 matches, generating an xPTS of 75, second only to Inter Milan and six points higher than their actual total.
They also created 108 big chances, the second-highest total in Serie A, but converted only 61 goals, highlighting a lack of efficiency in front of goal rather than a shortage of opportunities. Summer additions Jeff Ekhator from Genoa and Kerim Alajbegovic from Bayer Leverkusen add further competition to an already talented squad.
Chelsea have experienced mixed results during their tour, opening with a 6-4 victory over Western Sydney Wanderers before suffering a 2-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur despite levelling through Estevao after Sandro Tonali's opener.
Richarlison struck an injury-time winner even after Tottenham had been reduced to 10 men. Alonso insisted the performance mattered more than the result and hinted his strongest side of the tour could feature here. Teddy Sharman-Lowe has started every match while Robert Sanchez has recovered from a minor injury, and new signing Maxence Lacroix has increased competition for places alongside Levi Colwill in central defence.
Juventus have enjoyed a quieter but encouraging preseason. A goalless draw with FC Basel was followed by victories over Standard Liege and Nice, with Douglas Luiz producing impressive displays throughout the tour. Luciano Spalletti praised his side's improved pressing structure after the win over Nice, although Jeff Ekhator remains a doubt after suffering a thigh injury against Basel.
How the bookies view it
At the time of writing there are no odds available for this fixture.
Head to head: Honours even
These clubs have met six times since 2009, all in the Champions League, with the record perfectly balanced at two wins each and two draws.
Player to watch: Jamie Gittens to continue strong pre-season
Jamie Gittens has been one of Chelsea's brightest performers this summer after a frustrating campaign in which he started only 12 matches across all competitions, scoring once and providing four assists.
He created Estevao's goal against Tottenham with an excellent run and delivery from the left, and with Morgan Rogers still unavailable and competition for wide places increasing, another strong display would strengthen his chances of becoming a regular starter under Alonso.
Predicted line ups
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sharman-Lowe; Palestra, Fofana, Colwill, Hato; Essugo, Lavia; Estevao, Palmer, Gittens; Joao Pedro.
Juventus (3-4-2-1): Di Gregorio; Kalulu, Gatti, Kelly; Cambiaso, Locatelli, Douglas Luiz, Licina; Adzic, Boga; Durmisi.
Anything else catch the eye?
Chelsea's preseason has already highlighted the same defensive concerns that affected them throughout last season. They have conceded six goals across two friendlies, and while Alonso is still assessing his best back four, the understanding between his defenders remains a work in progress.
Juventus have the attacking quality to exploit those spaces. Their underlying numbers from last season ranked among the strongest in Serie A, and they continue to create high-quality chances despite missing opportunities more often than expected.
Chelsea, though, have shown enough going forward to suggest they will create chances of their own. Jamie Gittens, Estevao and Joao Pedro have all impressed during the tour, while Cole Palmer's expected return to the starting line-up should add further creativity. Juventus have yet to face an attack with Chelsea's level of pace and movement during preseason.
With one side still searching for defensive stability and the other consistently creating opportunities, this looks well suited to both teams finding the net. My preferred angle, once markets become available, would be both teams to score.
GambleAware