Burnley v Brentford
Burnley

Burnley vs Brentford

, KO: 15:00 , Turf Moor
Brentford

Burnley are showing some signs of life in the Premier League relegation scrap and if they can pick up three points at home to Brentford, some fans might start dreaming of a great escape.

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The Clarets looked doomed after losing 2-0 at home to West Ham but they've since banked four points from their last two games with Crystal Palace and Chelsea.

That has left them eight points adrift of safety and staying up still looks like a tall order for Scott Parker's men.

But Burnley have a pretty kind run of fixtures coming up and if they can dump the Bees it could provide a platform for a survival mission.

Many people fancied Brentford to be dragged into the relegation battle before a ball was kicked but they've reacted superbly to losing boss Thomas Frank and key players Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa.

Keith Andrews has them sitting seventh in the table and the Bees boss will be looking to bounce back from last week's disappointing home loss to Brighton.

How the bookies view it: A buzz about the Bees

Despite their recent upturn in league form, Burnley are outsiders for this one at 7/2 with Bet365. Brentford look too short at 4/5 with BetMGM and the draw pays 14/5 with the same firm.

Recent head to head: Is the tide turning?

These sides have faced off nine times since the year 2000 and Burnley have held the upper hand, with six wins and three defeats. But it's Brentford who have been on top of late, with those three victories coming across the last four meetings.

Players to watch: Flemming on a high

Zian Flemming scored Burnley's dramatic late leveller at Stamford Bridge and that took his tally for the season to seven. The Dutchman is 19/10 at BetMGM for a goal or assist.

Kevin Schade started on the bench for Brentford last week but should return for this game after such a poor display from his side against Brighton. The German winger is 6/5 at Bet365 to score or assist.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Probable line-ups

Burnley still have a host of players missing, with Connor Roberts, Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni, Josh Cullen, Mike Tresor, Axel Tuanzebe and Armando Broja in the treatment room.

Brentford have a healthier squad at the moment with only Antoni Milambo, Fabio Carvalho and Josh Dasilva sidelined.

Burnley: Dubravka, Walker, Worrall, Esteve, Ugochukwu, Humphreys, Mejbri, Laurent, Edwards, Anthony, Flemming.

Brentford: Kelleher, Henry, Van den Berg, Ajer, Kayode, Jensen, Henderson, Janelt, Ouattara, Schade, Thiago.

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Brentford win

Brentford to beat Burnley is supported by a clear gap in underlying performance despite Burnley holding home advantage.

Across the last eight matches Brentford average 2.16 xG and 1.69 xGA, returning 13.17 xPTS. Their non pen numbers sit at 2.06 NPxG and 1.40 NPxGA, and they have created 17 big chances while conceding 15. That level of attacking output stands out against a Burnley side struggling in both boxes.

Burnley’s last eight figures show just 0.60 xG and 2.01 xGA with only 4.18 xPTS collected. They have produced one big chance and conceded nine in that run, and their xG ratio over the period is 0.23, the lowest in the league sample.

They also allow 10.5 shots inside the box per game across those eight fixtures. Even factoring in home status, Burnley’s defensive exposure and lack of attacking threat point toward Brentford carrying the stronger profile into this matchup.

Anything else catch the eye?

Burnley look a bit too big for this one with home advantage so it could pay to back them in the double chance at 21/20 with Betfred.

Clarets midfielder Hannibal Mejbri always gets stuck in and the Tunisian has racked up eight yellows for club and country this term. He's 11/5 with Coral to go into the book again and 4/5 with Bet365 for over 1.5 fouls.

We saw 11 corners when Brentford beat Burnley 3-1 at home earlier this season so that's another market worth looking at. Over 10.5 corners pays a decent 5/4 with Unibet.

Burnley vs Brentford Betting Tips & Predictions
Burnley double chance
21/20
Betfred
Hannibal Mejbri to be carded
11/5
Coral
Over 10.5 corners
5/4
UniBet
Further Reading
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