Brighton and Hove Albion vs Manchester CityEnglish Premier League, KO: 15:00 May 12, 2019, Amex Stadium
AFTER one of the most thrilling and enthralling title races in years, it all boils down to one game for Manchester City as they bid to hold on to their crown.
Collect three points at Brighton and the champions will finally dismiss the challenge of Liverpool, no matter how Jurgen Klopp's side fare at home to Wolves.
It all sounds so simple and City are massive favourites to finish the job at the Amex, with Pep Guardiola's side a best 2/11 with Sky Bet for a win and Brighton massive 20/1 outsiders with Betdaq.
Those odds are understandable given City have won their last 13 Premier League games and Brighton are without a win in their last nine matches.
But nerves can do strange things to a team and had it not been for a 30-yarder screamer by skipper Vincent Kompany, City would have surrendered the title initiative to Liverpool by drawing their last game at home to Leicester.
And when City memorably won their first title in 44 years under Roberto Mancini back in 2012 they had to wait until the last second before sealing the crown.
City had an even easier fixture that day, at home to a poor QPR side, but fell behind and needed two injury-time goals to claim a thrilling title triumph.
Guardiola's team are a more slick and composed outfit than the class of 2012 and don't have the additional burden of ending a 44-year wait for title success.
But pressure can get the best of them and there's no such thing as a sure thing in football, as Barcelona and Ajax found out to their cost in the Champions League semi-finals
Brighton's defending also impressed me in their 1-1 draw at Arsenal last weekend. With the pressure off after Cardiff's loss secured safety for the Bluebirds it would have been easy to slack off.
However, Chris Hughton's men roared into tackles and defended for their lives, conceding just once as they claimed a 1-1 draw. I backed the Gunners to win with a clean sheet that day and it would have come up had a stupid challenge from Granit Xhaka not gifted Brighton a penalty.
That it took a spot-kick to get them on the scoresheet speaks volumes about the lack of firepower in Hughton's attack, who have drawn a blank in seven of their last nine games.
Even though they have now scored in their last two matches, I can't see them breaching City's defence. So back Guardiola's side to win with a clean sheet, which is 37/40 with BetVictor.
The goals haven't been flowing for City of late and with the added pressure of sealing the title, I like the look of under 2.5 match goals, which is 43/20 with 888 Sport.
I wouldn't be surprised if City got a breakthrough goal then were made to sweat before finally grabbing a clincher. That lends appeal to a two-goal winning margin for the champions which is 10/3 with Bet 365.
Sergio Aguero knows a thing or two about title-winning goals and the stage is set for the Argentinian to close out another triumph. He's 3/1 with Betfred for first scorer but I'll be backing him to net last at the same odds with the same firm.
Kyle Walker is always a threat for City down the right flank with his surging runs and the full-back looks overpriced at 5/1 for an assist at Ladbrokes.
This English Premier League match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Manchester City will be played on May 12, 2019 and kick off at 15:00