Premier League action takes place on Saturday as Brentford welcome West Ham to the Gtech Community Stadium. The hosts are in the mix for a European spot whilst the Hammers are fighting relegation.
Brentford arrive with underlying numbers that suggest they are performing better than recent results imply. Across the last eight matches they rank second for xPTS with 14.69, while over the last four home games that rises to 9.38.
Their home process has been especially strong, posting 2.04 non-penalty xG and only 0.89 xGA across that recent four-game sample. They have also created 9.3 shots inside the box per match in those contests, while allowing only 7.0.
The Bees have been effective over a longer home sample too. They average 1.72 xG and 1.33 xGA at the Gtech Community Stadium, while winning the xG battle in 12 of 17 home matches. Their set-piece threat remains a major weapon, ranking first across the last eight games for set-piece xG ratio.
West Ham come into this game with mixed recent form. Across the last four matches they have taken seven actual points from an xPTS return of 6.10, showing they have remained competitive. Over the last eight matches they have collected 12 points, with 11 big chances created and eight conceded.
Away from home, West Ham average 1.20 xG and 1.56 xGA, while allowing 14.71 shots per match and 5.41 shots on target against. They have also conceded 6.7 corners per away game, which points to sustained pressure from opponents.
With Brentford strong at home and West Ham capable of contributing in attack, this looks set to be an open and competitive contest in west London on Saturday afternoon.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Brentford are priced at 1/1 in the match winner market, which equates to a 50.00% implied probability of a home victory. West Ham are available at 14/5, representing a 26.32% implied probability of an away win. The draw is priced at 59/20, which implies a 25.32% probability.
The goals market suggests a stronger chance of a higher-scoring contest. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/6, which converts to a 60.00% implied probability of at least three goals. Both teams to score is priced at 3/5, representing a 62.50% implied probability of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Bees hold the edge
Across the last 13 meetings, Brentford hold the stronger record with seven wins, two draws and four defeats. They have scored 20 goals and conceded 14, averaging 1.54 goals per game while West Ham average 1.08. Total goals across those matches sit at 2.62 per game, which points toward open contests.
Recent meetings strongly favour Brentford. They are unbeaten in the last four competitive clashes, winning three and drawing one. Those results were 2-2, 2-0, 1-0 and 1-1. They have also won five of the last seven competitive meetings.
Both teams to score has landed in five of the last 13 meetings, 38.5%, while over 2.5 goals has landed in six, 46.2%. The recent trend is mixed, with the last four producing two overs and two unders.
Players to watch: Set piece troubles for the Hammers
Nathan Collins is a strong player prop angle for Brentford because his attacking threat at set pieces is consistent and repeatable.
He has recorded 31 shots this season, which is a high total for a central defender. More importantly, 17 of those efforts have come with his head. That means 54.8% of his shots are aerial attempts, showing Brentford target him regularly from corners and wide free kicks.
That profile matters more in this fixture because West Ham have the weakest set piece defensive record in the league. They have conceded 17 goals from dead ball situations and allowed 165 set piece shots across 34 matches.
Brentford already rely heavily on set plays for chance creation, posting 148 set piece shots and 16.54 xG this season. Collins is one of the main beneficiaries of that supply.
Given Brentford's strength from dead balls and West Ham's weakness defending them, Collins looks one of the most likely defenders on the slate to threaten from a corner.
Predicted line-ups
Brentford 4-2-3-1: Kelleher, Kayode, van den Berg, Collins, Lewis Potter, Yarmoliuk, Jensen, Ouattara, Damsgaard, Schade, Thiago.
West Ham 4-2-3-1: Hermansen, Walker Peters, Mavropanos, Disasi, Diouf, Soucek, Fernandes, Bowen, Pablo, Summerville, Castellanos.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals stands out as the best angle when Brentford host West Ham in the Premier League on Saturday.
Brentford home matches have seen both teams score in 59% of games, while 53% have gone over 2.5 goals. West Ham away fixtures are similar, with both teams to score landing in 50% and over 2.5 goals in 56%. Those baseline numbers already point towards chances at both ends.
Brentford remain an aggressive attacking side at the Gtech Community Stadium. They average 1.72 xG at home, alongside 11.0 total shots and 4.06 shots on target per game. Across their last four home matches those numbers improve sharply to 2.04 non-penalty xG, 9.3 shots inside the box and seven big chances created, while conceding none in that category. That suggests they are creating enough to score at least once, and likely more.
West Ham have enough attacking output to play their part. Across the last eight matches they average 1.57 xG, while over the last four they have created 1.41 xG per game and produced four big chances. Even away from home they still score 1.06 goals per match and generate 9.35 shots.
Defensively, both sides allow openings. Brentford concede 1.33 xGA at home and West Ham concede 1.56 xGA away. The Hammers also allow 14.71 shots and 5.41 shots on target on their travels, while Brentford home matches average 2.76 total goals.
With Brentford carrying strong attacking momentum and West Ham open enough both in and out of possession, the conditions are in place for goals at both ends and at least three overall.
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