Blackburn Rovers face Nottingham Forest at the Estadio de Nora in Albufeira on Wednesday with kick-off at 11am, as both clubs continue their preseason preparations under new managers.
The fixture forms part of Blackburn's Algarve training camp, which also includes a behind-closed-doors meeting with Strasbourg later in the week, while Forest are beginning a new era under Oliver Glasner following another summer of significant change at the City Ground.
Neither side enjoyed a straightforward league campaign last season. Blackburn survived in the Championship by finishing 20th on 52 points, although their underlying numbers suggested they deserved more than the table reflected. Rovers averaged 1.12 xG and 1.10 xGA, effectively breaking even from a process perspective but repeatedly failing to turn competitive performances into results.
Forest finished 16th in the Premier League on 44 points after spending much of the season looking over their shoulder, despite somehow combining that with a run to the Europa League semi-finals. Their underlying numbers were less encouraging, averaging 1.25 xG and 1.48 xGA, highlighting a side that regularly conceded better chances than they created.
Tony Mowbray begins his second spell in charge of Blackburn after returning to the club this summer. The 62-year-old remains one of the most respected managers in the Championship, having guided Rovers back from League One during his first spell before establishing them as a competitive second-tier side. His return also marks an impressive personal comeback following his bowel cancer diagnosis and subsequent return to management with West Brom.
Preseason has started positively. Blackburn opened with a goalless draw at Accrington Stanley before producing an impressive 3-0 victory over Barnsley behind closed doors at Brockhall. Mowbray praised his side's aggressive pressing and front-foot approach afterwards, admitting they could easily have scored more.
Illness meant several senior players were unavailable, allowing Adam Forshaw, Harry Pickering, Tom Atcheson, Ryan Alebiosu, Matty Litherland and Axel Henriksson valuable minutes. A 30-man squad has travelled to Portugal, including academy full-back Lucas Houghton, while Lewis Miller also makes the trip despite continuing his recovery from a long-term Achilles injury.
Recruitment has been relatively quiet so far. Teenage Arsenal forward Osman Kamara has joined the Under-21 squad, while Blackburn continue to be linked with Nantes forward Yassine Benhattab as Mowbray looks to strengthen his attacking options before the Championship season begins.
Forest also arrive with a new manager after appointing Oliver Glasner, their fifth permanent boss in just 12 months. It has been another remarkable period of upheaval following spells under Nuno Espirito Santo, Ange Postecoglou, Sean Dyche and Vitor Pereira. Glasner arrives with an outstanding recent record after delivering the FA Cup, Community Shield and Europa Conference League during his time at Crystal Palace.
The squad has also undergone significant change. Elliot Anderson has completed a British-record £135 million move to Manchester City, while David Carmo, Jota Silva, Willy Boly, Angus Gunn, Stefan Ortega and Lorenzo Lucca have all departed. Inevitably, this preseason is as much about rebuilding as preparing for the new campaign.
Forest's opening friendly produced a comfortable 2-0 victory over Notts County, with Igor Jesus and Arnaud Kalimuendo scoring in a performance that offered early encouragement. Glasner rotated two completely different XIs across the match and was pleased with the chances created, although he admitted implementing his tactical ideas will take considerably longer than a few days on the training ground.
He has also confirmed discussions with his World Cup players about shortening their summer breaks slightly to accelerate their integration into the squad ahead of the Premier League season.
How the bookies view it
At the time of writing there are no odds available for this fixture.
Head to head: Closely contested
Recent meetings have been closely contested. Across the last 14 matches between 2015 and 2022, Forest have won five, Blackburn four and five have finished level.
Forest's 4-1 Carabao Cup victory in 2022 is the most recent meeting, although previous results carry little significance given the managerial and squad changes both clubs have undergone.
Player to watch: Gibbs White main threat for Tricky Trees
Morgan Gibbs-White remains Forest's standout attacking player. He finished last season with 15 goals and four assists from 37 appearances, while producing 83 shots and 32 efforts on target.
He also played a key role in the opening goal against Notts County, with Glasner highlighting his assist for Igor Jesus as exactly the type of attacking detail he wants his side to produce. As Forest begin adapting to another new system, Gibbs-White looks set to remain their primary creative outlet.
Predicted line-ups
Blackburn Rovers (4-4-2): Toth; Litherland, Carter, Pratt, Ribeiro; Forshaw, Henriksson, Baradji, De Neve; Kargbo, Gudjohnsen.
Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1): Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Morato, Williams; Cunha, Yates; Hutchinson, McAtee, Gibbs-White; Jesus.
Anything else catch the eye?
My bet is under 2.5 goals, with the price to be confirmed once the market is available.
This feels like a typical early preseason fixture where structure and fitness will take priority over entertainment. Both managers are still learning about their squads, both clubs have experienced significant turnover during the summer and wholesale changes throughout the match are inevitable.
The underlying numbers from last season do little to suggest an open contest. Blackburn were effectively break-even on expected goals despite their struggles, while Forest consistently allowed better chances than they created. Add in two coaches still implementing new tactical ideas and players still building fitness after the summer break, and this has all the ingredients of a controlled rather than expansive game.
The result itself should not be overanalysed, but the tactical shape, pressing structure and early partnerships will offer far more insight than the final score. Until both managers have had more time on the training ground, under 2.5 goals looks the strongest angle.
GambleAware