For the third consecutive week, we’ll get to enjoy the highest level of Spanish football with the final clash of the season between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona. After each team secured an H2H win in recent weeks, the stakes are now higher than ever, and Los Colchoneros hold a two-goal advantage.
Although they were underdogs once again, Atletico Madrid won the first leg last week. The fact is, however, that the victory came largely thanks to Cubarsi’s red card in the 44th minute and, additionally, the visitors’ rather uninviting defensive football.
A win is a win, and what matters is only who will play in the semifinals, but even with the red card, Barcelona were the more active team and had eight shots in the second half. Atletico, on the other hand, had only one, but it was enough for them to score a second goal.
History is not on Hansi Flick’s side, given that Barcelona have not advanced after any of their last six ties in which they trailed after the first leg.
How the bookies view it: Always the same favourites
Bookmakers don’t believe for a second that Atletico will be able to turn things around in the second leg, and this time they consider them even bigger underdogs, despite last week’s victory.
Currently, you can back Atletico Madrid at 29/10, while Barcelona are available at 4/5. Meanwhile, the draw is priced at 3/1, but it’s highly unlikely to happen, given that there has been only one such result in the last 10 head-to-head matches.
Recent head-to-head: A win each at the Metropolitano in 2026
This will be the sixth match between Atletico and Barcelona this season, and none of the encounters so far have failed to deliver surprises and exciting moments.
Barcelona won three of the five so far, but Los Colchoneros have reason to be confident after beating Barca 4-0 at home just two months ago. But we also mustn’t forget that Atletico had suffered five consecutive home losses to Barcelona before that victory.
Players to watch: Blaugrana need more Lewandowski magic
Once again, we plan to put our faith in Robert Lewandowski, despite his lackluster performance in the first match. But he was also substituted in the 46th minute solely because of the red card and the change in formation.
Lewandowski didn’t play a single minute against Espanyol on Saturday, which means Hansi Flick plans to use him on Tuesday. Just two weeks ago, he scored the winning goal at this stadium, so we’ll take a chance and put our faith in him again, given the obvious absences in Barcelona’s attack.
Probable line-ups
Atletico Madrid: Musso, Ruggeri, Le Normand, Lenglet, Molina, Simeone, Lookman, Koke, Llorente, Griezmann, Alvarez
Barcelona: J. Garcia, Cancelo, E. Garcia, Araujo, Kounde, De Jong, Pedri, Yamal, Rashford, Lopez, Lewandowski
Anything else catch the eye?
This time, we’ll refrain from betting on a winner, simply because Atletico Madrid are extremely difficult to beat at the Metropolitano. Besides, Diego Simeone is a master of defensive football, and we don’t dare take the risk.
But this year’s Atletico Madrid have shown that they can explode offensively at any moment, so we certainly expect them to score again. The combination of Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 looks great given the lower odds on the individual markets.
We’re definitely going to see a lot of cards, too. If the first match was a bit subdued, the tension in this one will be at its peak. You can go with a standard card line or a 2+ cards bet for both teams, like the one offered by Betano. Over 4.5 cards is currently available at around 3/5, while Over 5.5 is priced at 21/20, which feels like a steal.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
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