Atalanta have a mountain to climb if they are to continue forward, facing a team they have never beaten before. But Borussia Dortmund’s recent struggles in Italy leave the back door open, as La Dea rediscovered their momentum with a win over Napoli at the weekend.
Atalanta bounced back from the defeat midweek in style, defeating the defending champions with a second-half comeback.
Their home form suggests that overcoming a 2-0 deficit is absolutely possible, given that La Dea won eight of their last 10 home matches. And in that period, they defeated Juventus, Roma, Napoli, and Chelsea.
Borussia Dortmund had to travel to Leipzig at the weekend, and barely won a point through an equaliser in added time. Their domestic form is unmatched, but BVB lost their two previous UCL matches before last week’s first leg.
Moreover, they have to face Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga this week too, and the outcome of this clash could decide the title race. Niko Kovac and his squad will have a lot on their mind on Wednesday, not to mention the team’s struggles away in Italy in recent years.
How the bookies view it: Atalanta to bounce back
Bookmakers expect a tight rematch, but believe Atalanta are a considerable favourite to win. The odds are close to last week’s, but in reverse.
You can currently back Atalanta at 11/10, while Borussia Dortmund are available at 9/4. Alternatively, you can opt for the draw at 11/4.
Recent head-to-head: The Prussians are undefeated in competitive H2Hs
This is the second time these teams have met at this stage of a UEFA competition, the previous case being in the Europa League in 2018. Back then, BVB also won at home, before a draw in the rematch.
Overall, Atalanta are winless in three competitive clashes, but beat Dortmund once in a club friendly in 2017 (1-0).
Additionally, we have to note that the Prussians have won only one of their last eight visits to Italian teams, losing five times.
Players to watch: Guirassy has more goal involvements than appearances
Finding a suitable pick from Atalanta’s squad is difficult because they don’t have a world-class goalscorer like Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy, for example. A lot of players get involved in the scoring process, and Raffaele Palladino makes plenty of rotations.
You can always back the 29-year-old striker to make an impact, as he now has 24 UCL goal contributions in 23 appearances for Dortmund.
We also anticipate a lot of cards in this rematch, and BVB’s wing-backs will have their hands full, so Julian Ryerson and Daniel Svensson could be good picks for bookings.
Probable line-ups
Atalanta: Carnesecchi, Scalvini, Hien, Kolasinac, Zappacosta, Roon, Pasalic, Bellanova, Zalewski, Sulemana, Krstovic
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Bensebaini, Reggiani, Anton, Svensson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Ryerson, Beier, Sabitzer, Guirassy
Anything else catch the eye?
Atalanta are a different animal at home, and Borussia Dortmund’s away performances lately have not been that convincing. While they rarely lost, they won only four of their last 10 away games in all competitions.
Moreover, the Prussians are not a team that’s going to protect a 2-0 lead. They will push forward again, so this should be a fairly open match. We see this going Atalanta’s way, but Dortmund will qualify forward.
Other than goals, we expect a fair number of bookings. The first match saw five yellow cards, and we expect at least that many in the rematch, and possibly more.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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