Premier League: Player fouls tips & predictions

The Premier League fouls betting markets allow punters to wager on the total number of transgressions in a match, specific player fouls, players to be fouled, or which team will commit the most fouls.

You can bet on over/under fouls, team fouls, or individual players.

Below you can find our Premier League fouls tips and betting predictions ahead of this weekend's action.

Chelsea vs Arsenal

In the upcoming match between Chelsea and Arsenal, Moises Caicedo is expected to play a pivotal role in the Blues midfield, particularly in disrupting Arsenal's playmakers.

Caicedo has committed 20 fouls across 10 games this season, averaging two fouls per match. Notably, he has made at least one foul in nine of these games and two or more fouls in seven, indicating a 70% likelihood of committing multiple fouls per game. In his last five matches, Caicedo has accumulated 14 fouls, consistently making two or more in each.

Arsenal's captain, Martin Odegaard, is anticipated to feature prominently after a recent return from injury. In his previous encounter against Chelsea, Odegaard drew three fouls, underscoring his ability to attract challenges from opponents.

Given Caicedo's defensive responsibilities and Odegaard's playmaking role, it's plausible that Caicedo will commit at least two fouls during the match. SkyBet offers odds reflecting a 58% probability of this outcome, aligning with Caicedo's recent disciplinary trends.

Considering the competitive nature of Chelsea vs Arsenal fixtures and the midfield dynamics, betting on Caicedo to commit two or more fouls appears to be a well-supported proposition.

• Best Bet: Moises Caicedo to commit 2 + fouls at 1.73 with Skybet

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle

Nottingham Forest's Alex Moreno looks set to commit at least two fouls against Newcastle, as he faces a tough match-up on Sunday. Newcastle have been in a challenging spell with just one win in their last six games, yet they’re still ranked ninth in xPTS.

Forest, closely ranked at tenth in xPTS, are likely to push Newcastle in a highly competitive game. With Harvey Barnes potentially returning to the lineup and Anthony Gordon expected to start on the right wing, Moreno will have a busy afternoon marking either winger.

Moreno has shown his defensive intensity this season, committing 10 fouls across seven appearances, recording at least one foul in six games and two or more in four of the last five matches. Gordon has drawn 25 fouls in nine games, with opponents committing two or more fouls on him in seven of those games. E

ven if Barnes plays on Moreno’s side, his starts show he’s regularly fouled once every 58 minutes, suggesting Moreno will be tested throughout the game.

• Best Bet: Alex Moreno to make 2+ fouls at 2.63 with Skybet

Brentford vs Bournemouth

Antoine Semenyo has been a notable presence in Bournemouth's lineup, not only for his offensive contributions but also for his physical style of play. In the current Premier League season, he has committed 16 fouls over 10 matches, averaging 1.6 fouls per game. This aggressive approach has resulted in four yellow cards thus far. Notably, Bournemouth leads the league in total fouls committed this season.

Analysing Semenyo's recent performances, he recorded 2, 2, 0, 4, 1, 3, 3, and 0 fouls in his last eight games. The matches where he did not commit any fouls were against Manchester City and Liverpool, teams known for their dominant possession, which often limits opponents' defensive actions.

Looking ahead, Bournemouth face Brentford, a team with a strong home record, boasting four wins out of five games and an average of three goals per match. Given Brentford's offensive prowess and Bournemouth's defensive challenges, Semenyo is likely to be heavily involved defensively, increasing the probability of him committing at least two fouls in the upcoming match.

• Best Bet: Antoine Semenyo to commit 2+ fouls at 2.0 with Skybet

Who has committed the most fouls and who has suffered the most fouls?

Which match will have the highest booking points total?

Booking points in betting refer to a system where points are assigned based on yellow and red cards shown to players during a match.

Generally, a yellow card is worth 10 points, while a red card is valued at 25 points. In some cases, two yellow cards resulting in a red are counted as 35 points.

Brighton vs Man City

Analysing the upcoming Premier League match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester City, referee Sam Barrott's officiating style suggests a high likelihood of multiple bookings for both teams. Barrott has faced criticism this season, averaging 58.33 booking points per game and issuing at least two cards to each side in five of his six Premier League matches.

Brighton have demonstrated a propensity for accumulating cards, averaging 2.4 per home game and receiving two or more in four out of five home fixtures. Notably, their opponents have also been booked at least twice in all five of Brighton's home games, with 17 out of the last 20 visiting teams receiving two or more cards.

Manchester City have been disciplined in all ten Premier League games this season, averaging two cards per match and receiving two or more in six of those games. Their opponents have collected two or more cards in seven matches, including four out of five away games. City's away fixtures have averaged 4.4 cards, indicating a trend toward higher card counts.

Given these patterns and Barrott's officiating history, it's reasonable to anticipate that both Brighton and Manchester City will receive multiple bookings in their upcoming encounter.

Best Bet: Both teams over 1.5 cards each at 1.83 with Bet365

Player to be carded acca – our picks

Flynn Downes to be carded. It’s a massive game between Wolves and Southampton. Wolves games have seen plenty of goals and their attack minded players have seen them score 14 goals so far. Downes will be tasked with protecting the Southampton back four. Pablo Sarabia and Matheus Cunha will drop deep and Downes will have his hands full with this pace, strength and movement.

He has committed 18 fouls in his 10 games this season, committing two or more in four of the last five games. Cunha has been fouled 19 times in his nine starts and these two players should see plenty of each other

• Best Price at 2.55 with Unibet

Ben Johnson is a strong candidate for a booking against Spurs. Johnson will play right back for Ipswich on Sunday and will have to keep Son Heung-min quiet throughout the game. Johnson has started three Premier League games with Ipswich this season and in two of these he committed two fouls. Son have been fouled seven times in his seven starts, but this will be a very dominate game for Spurs with Ipswich looking to sit deep and contain Spurs. I can’t see a way on which Johnson isn’t forced into making fouls to stop Son, which should lead to a card.

• Best Price at 4.5 with Skybet

Morgan Gibbs White to be carded. Gibbs White has made 14 fouls in his seven games this season, making at least two in four of the seven games, collecting three yellow cards, which included two in the same game. He is likely to occupy the same space on the pitch as Bruno Guimares, who is the most fouled player in the Premier League. He has now been fouled 41 times this season, being fouled at least two in every game. There is a very good chance that Gibbs White gets booked for multiple fouls on Bruno.

• Best Price at 3.4 with Betfair

Combining our three-player selections into a three-fold comes in at 34.5 with Unibet.

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