This weekend’s National League action presents plenty of betting opportunities, with key fixtures involving teams battling for promotion, playoff spots, and survival.
Aldershot take on AFC Fylde in a crucial relegation scrap, where both sides desperately need points to stay above the drop zone. Rochdale host bottom-placed Ebbsfleet, looking to strengthen their position in the playoff race against a side that has struggled all season.
Meanwhile, York City welcome Woking, with York aiming to close the gap on the league leaders while Woking continue their fight to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle.
With home dominance, defensive vulnerabilities, and goal trends playing a key role in these matchups, we break down the best betting angles, statistical insights, and value picks to maximize your chances of success this weekend. Let’s dive in!
Aldershot vs AFC Fylde
Aldershot welcome AFC Fylde this weekend in a vital clash between two struggling sides desperate to avoid being dragged into the relegation zone. The hosts have been inconsistent all season, with a W6-D12-L10 record, averaging 3.21 goals per game. They currently sit 19th, just four points above the relegation zone and only two points ahead of their visitors.
At home, Aldershot have a W4-D6-L4 record, ranking 19th in home points this season. They have managed just two clean sheets at home, failing to score in five of their 14 home matches. However, their record against teams ranked eigth or lower is impressive for a side battling relegation, standing at W3-D4-L1.
Their three home defeats have all come against top-seven sides, and they have already taken points from Forest Green (2nd) and York City (third), while also beating Oldham (fourth) at home.
Recent home fixtures have been filled with goals, with 22 scored in their last five home matches, an average of 4.4 per game. Aldershot have found the net twice or more in each of their last five home games, highlighting their attacking improvement.
AFC Fylde enter this fixture in deep trouble, sitting in the relegation zone with a W8-D4-L17 record. They have conceded an average of 2.03 goals per game this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home. Their attacking struggles are also evident, failing to score in 60% of their away matches, while conceding 2.33 goals per game on the road. They have shipped two or more goals in 10 of their 15 away games.
Interestingly, Fylde’s away performances have been slightly better against top-half teams than bottom-half sides, with four of their seven away points coming against teams ranked sixth and fourth.
One trend to watch is second-half goals. Aldershot have scored 15 second-half goals in 14 home matches, while AFC Fylde have conceded at least one second-half goal in 12 of their 15 away matches, allowing a total of 24 goals in the second half—an average of 1.6 per game.
This is a must-win game for both sides, with defeat potentially pulling the loser deeper into relegation trouble. However, a victory would provide crucial breathing room as both teams fight to secure safety.
- Best Bet: Aldershot to win or draw (double chance), Aldershot over 1 goal & over 0 2nd half goals for Aldershot at 1.80 with Bet365
Rochdale vs Ebbsfleet
Rochdale welcome bottom-placed Ebbsfleet in a match that pits seventh against 24th in the league standings. Rochdale are currently inside the playoff spots, sitting on 42 points from 25 matches with a W13-D3-L9 record. Their home form has been solid, ranking seventh in the league, with a W7-D2-L3 record at home. Defensively, they have been strong, conceding just eight goals in 12 home matches, keeping five clean sheets, and failing to score in only three games.
Against bottom-half teams at home, Rochdale have been dominant, with a W5-D1-L0 record. Their matches tend to start slow, with only 10 first-half goals in their 12 home games combined. Notably, four of those matches have been 0-0 at halftime, while 10 of 12 home games have seen one or fewer first-half goals. The highest number of first-half goals recorded at Woking this season is two, which has only happened twice.
Ebbsfleet, meanwhile, have been dreadful away from home, sitting at the bottom of the table with a W1-D9-L12 record, scoring only 21 goals while conceding an average of 2.23 goals per game. Their away form is even worse, as they are yet to register a victory on the road, losing 11 of their 15 away games.
They have managed just 12 goals away from home, conceding at a rate of 2.67 per game. In the opening 45 minutes of away games, they have scored just twice all season. Both these goals have come against sides in the bottom 10.
Against teams sitting 14th or higher, Ebbsfleet’s away record reads W0-D0-L9, conceding at least two goals in all nine of those games. In fact, they have conceded two or more goals in 12 of their 15 away matches this season.
Given Woking’s strong home performances and Ebbsfleet’s defensive struggles, a home win looks highly likely. Additionally, with both sides starting games slowly, it is unlikely we will see three or more first-half goals, but Woking should find the net at least twice as they look to consolidate their playoff position.
- Best Bet: Rochdale win, Rochdale over 1 goal and under 3 1st half goals at 1.72 with Bet365
York City vs Woking
York City sit third in the table, just six points behind leaders Barnet with two games in hand, making this a must-win fixture in their bid for automatic promotion. They boast the second-best home record in the league, with an impressive W12-D1-L2 record, conceding just 12 goals at home. Defensively, they have been excellent at the LNER Community Stadium, keeping eight clean sheets in 15 home matches and failing to score on only two occasions.
They face a Woking side struggling on the road, with a W1-D6-L7 away record. Their only away victory came against bottom-placed Ebbsfleet, highlighting their struggles away from home. Woking currently sit 17th in the league, just five points above the relegation zone, having picked up only nine points on the road all season—with only two sides winning fewer.
Woking have failed to score in six of their 14 away matches and have managed just two clean sheets, both coming against teams in the bottom seven. Their attacking struggles on the road are evident, as they have scored just four away goals, with those coming against teams sitting 24th, 19th, 13th, and ninth on the table.
York have been particularly strong in the first half, conceding just five first-half goals all season, with two of those coming in their defeat to Sutton. Meanwhile, Woking have been slow starters, and their away form suggests they will struggle to find the net early on.
Given York’s dominance at home and Woking’s struggles on the road, a York win looks a strong bet. However, considering York’s defensive solidity and Woking’s attacking woes in the first half, adding Woking under one first-half goals strengthens the value of the bet.
- Best Bet: York win and Woking under 1 1st half goal at 1.90 with Bet365
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