Gooooood afternoon all, we are back for Week 3 of the NFL season after hitting 3 of 4 of my selections last week, an injury early on for Brandon Aiyuk let down the TD scorer bet early on, but the spread, total and player prop all landed.
This won't be as in-depth as I usually go as I'm on holiday at the moment, but I wanted to get something out for the evening and allow the usual guys to get their bets in the comments as well, so without any further ado we'll get into the nitty-gritty.
Best Spread
We're only early in the season but there's already quite a few games with spreads over a touchdown with the Chiefs (v Bears) and Cowboys (v Cardinals) both 12 points and higher, and frankly the favourites should both cover the spreads against very poor looking opponents, but I very rarely take double-digit favourites in the NFL, so I'll be giving them a miss tonight. I do like the Dolphins to cover again, giving 6.5 points to the Broncos who I think could be very bad again, but my official pick for the night will be the Buffalo Bills -5.5 at the Washington Commanders. The Commies have won both of their games so far, but against two of the (probably) bottom 5 teams in the league and they allowed quite a few points in both of their games. They're facing a Bills team who are looking to push on after a dominant win over the Raiders last week and Josh Allen's men should be able to out-score them in this one.
Best Total
There's already a huge total on the board as the Chargers travel to Minnesota with a 54.5 total, and it wouldn't be too shocking to see that game fly over the total, but it is a very high one which I'll be ignoring, conversely the lowest total of the week is 35.5 in the Jets v Patriots game where they obviously think Zach Wilson will struggle. I like The Lions and Falcons to put up a lot of points tonight though so I'll go for the OVER 46.5 in Detroit as my selection for this week. The Lions always seem to be involved in high-scoring games and the Falcons look like they'll be racking up points in most of their matches this season as well as Bijan Robinson settles into the league.
Best TD scorer
There are already a handful of big injuries affecting teams across the league and leading to other players getting their chances of big games, but annoyingly a lot of the prices are shorter than I'd have hoped. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt coming in for the Browns after Nick Chubbs horrendous injury last week were on my list, but both under 3/1 as best prices. Durham Smythe was a name I was looking at for the Dolphins with Jaylen Waddle likely to miss, but again, 27/10 best price isn't in my wheel house. Bijan Robinson is available above evens again and I think I'll keep taking that price on until it's no longer available, admittedly he didn't find the endzone last week but finished with 19 carries for 124 yards and his workload will likely keep growing, in a game which I think should be a high-scorer I'll take him at 21/20 at Bet365 and other places.
I'll give player props a miss today as I'm looking out over the Baltic sea in Croatia with a beer in hand, which isn't the best time to be digging through the multitude of options available but I'll be back next weekend with a more comprehensive look around the league and my usual 4 bets.
Good luck with your bets tonight, should be some cracking games. Adam @TouchdownTips
In December 2020 we sadly 
Enjoy your hols Adam
Vikings have no run game so cousins forced to throw it out high total but expect him to go over the 293.5 sky 5/6
Also c j stroud Texans o 235.5 passing has played well against the ravens and the colts probably be forced to air it out again 5/6 again Skybet
☘️☘️ all
My Plays for the 6pm games:
Bijan Robinson Over 66.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.83 Paddy Power
Tua Tagovailoa Over 260.5 Passing Yards @ 1.88 Unibet
Jordan Addison Over 49.5 @ 1.88 Unibet
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers Over 53.5 @ 1.90 Unibet
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers Each team Over 23.5 Points @ 2.30 Bet365
Kirk Cousins Over 288.5 Passing Yards @ 1.88 Unibet
Kirk Cousins Over 37.5 Pass Attempts @ 1.80 Boylesports
Jaguars -3 and Ravens -3 @ 1.97 Unibet
Afternoon gents
Acca for me
Patriots -2.5
Denver +6
Atlanta +3
Carolina +8.5
Acca pays 9/1
As a vikes fan I can see lot of points going up tonight the enhanced 7/2 on both qb 300 yards looks good nina potential shoot out.
Going for TJ Hockenson at big price 12/1 for first td he is the go to man in red zone for vikes
Good luck
Both prop bets up ☘️
Well done mate. Had the same play with Cousins. Pity the over points total was just short at 52. Should have landed at the end.
Easiest spread win ever, but not great elsewhere for me. The Dolphins could be legit this year.
The Browns defense looks outstanding too, if they had a half decent QB they’d be a big threat
Dolphins look awesome so far. Them against the Bills next week should be good!
If Chubb was healthy the Browns may have been a threat this year with that defense.
Ye the fins do look good
And Garrett for the browns is a sack machine
5/8 from the early games today along with both winning selections from Thursday night means it’s been a better week so far this season.
A few plays from the late game for me.
Jaylen Warren Over 2.5 Receptions @ 2.0 Skybet
Jaylen Warren Over 16.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
Warren so far is being used a lot more in the passing game and has 9 catches from 12 targets in the opening 2 games. All reports are saying he is expected to get more time today so like him to have a big game tonight especially as the Raiders have not played well against running backs so far this season allowing the forth most receptions.
Also expect a big reaction tonight from Josh Jacobs after his shocking performance last week. Back at home where he has 17 or more rush attempts in his last 10 against a Steelers team who have been awful against the run so far this season. Also like Pickens to be the main target again tonight for Pickett.
George Pickens Over 51.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
Josh Jacobs Over 17.5 Rush Attempts
Josh Jacobs Over 71.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
Bucs vs Eagles.
We have been poor against tight ends in the opening 2 weeks and I expect that to continue again tonight with Cade Otton. Swift was amazing last week and although we love to share the load I find it hard to imagine he will go from 28 carries and 175 yards to nothing. So I expect him to be the lead back tonight whilst splitting carries with the returning Gainwell. AJ Brown is due a big game and after the cameras last week caught a frustrated discussion with Hurts I think he will be targeted even more tonight.
Cade Otton Over 26.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions @ 2.10 Skybet
D’Andre Swift Over 9.5 Rush Attempts @ 1.87 Boylesports
AJ Brown Over 70.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
For Rams vs Bengals game:
Nacua Over 6.5 Receptions @ 2.20 Skybet
Nacua Over 70.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.90 Bet365
4/6 winners last night ended the best week of the season for me so far winning 14/21.
Well done all winners and looking forward to week 4 in particular the Bills vs Dolphins match up which should be a great watch.