It has been a crazy start to the NFL season, and congratulations to you if you've managed to survive the first three weeks in your survivor contests.
They have been decimated by some big shocks from underdogs this year! So far this season, Underdogs of five points or more have covered the spread in 14 of 16 games, with 10 of those winning outright!
Scoring is down in general around the league, with Unders finishing 9-6 last weekend, after high-scoring games on Monday night football; that tends to correct itself a few weeks into the season when the offences have figured themselves out a little, but whether that happens this year remains to be seen.
Best spread – Cleveland Browns -2
I was choosing between this game and the Rams on the road in Chicago as I don't rate Caleb Williams at all. However, they pulled out a huge performance to win the division last weekend, and I'm not sure they'll be able to replicate that effort in a game against this Bears team.
So I'm plumping for the Cleveland Browns to take care of business against a Raiders side who have lost to the Panthers and Chargers this season and will be without Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby, their star players on either side of the ball.
I think the truth is that they’re closer to last weekend's terrible performance against the Panthers than they are to the comeback winners against Lamar Jackson. There’s already talk of a quarterback change, which has been denied at the moment, so Gardner Minshew will continue with Aiden O’Connell backing him up, at least for the start of this game.
Without Davante Adams, they'll be relying on rookie Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, with their run game struggling to get going this year.
While the Cleveland Browns are by no means a good team and injuries have hampered them so far this year, they did seem to click at points last week, with Watson realising that Amari Cooper is quite good and should get the ball more. Their defense is still very good and despite nursing foot/feet injuries, Myles Garrett should be able to cause some chaos.
It probably won’t be an entertaining game for the neutral but I like the Browns to win outright in the death star keeping them in the chase in the AFC North at this early point of the season.
Best Total – Bengals vs Panthers o47
With scoring down across the league in general it’s becoming a tough time to take the overs (see Saints v Eagles last weekend) so I’m stuck between an over and an under this week. The Steelers and Colts game has gone up a point since opening, I guess on the thought of defensive scores as the offenses on both sides are fairly poor, yet the Steelers D is elite and with Anthony Richardson giving out picks like candy at Halloween I wouldn’t be shocked to see one go the other way in this one which puts me off my original lean of under on the 40.5.
I am however going to give points one more chance and take the over in Carolina in the Red Rifle revenge game as the Bengals take on the Panthers. Both teams hit 30 points last week, enough for the Panthers to beat the Raiders but not enough for the Bengals who lost on Monday night to the Commanders.
It left the Bengals at 0-3 and in desperate need of a win here, something that as a fan I am not confident at all in the chances of happening. The offense was great on Monday night with Burrow and Chase putting up points through the night, the defense however was abysmal, and I think a revived Panthers side with an actual professional NFL quarterback at the helm will be able to do what they want against them even with Adam Thielen now on IR after a lovely touchdown catch last weekend.
I’m expecting points from both teams in this one so I’ll go for the overs.
Best TD Scorer betting tips
Chuba Hubbard – 6/5 (888Sport)
There are quite a few players I like, but who are odds-on coming into week 4 – Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, Jordan Mason and Derrick Henry are all odds-on wherever you’re betting this weekend, so I'll give them a miss for this section.
So I’ll be staying in Carolina in a game I expect to be very high-scoring and going for a resurgent Panthers offense under Andy Dalton. Chuba Hubbard scored for the first time last weekend with a receiving touchdown, and he commanded all the work on the ground until they were comfortable, finishing with 114 yards from 21 carries.
I think he’ll go in on the ground this weekend as they will be able to move the ball at will against a Bengals defense coming off a short week without anyone able to stop the run.
Best Player Prop
Rachaad White o3.5 – 27/20 (WilliamHill)
I am very tempted to go again on Justice Hill's receiving yards, as they have only raised his line by a yard or two. I expect them to be involved in a back-and-forth game against the Bills on Sunday night football. I will be backing it again, but I won’t put it up here for the second week in a row.
With all the injuries in the pass-catching ranks for the Eagles there will be an opportunity for Saquon Barkley to have more receptions but unfortunately, until there's definite news on AJ Brown it looks like there won't be any line for his receptions. Which is a shame as I love him to go o3.5 which is his usual line, so I'm having to look to the other side of the ball and their running back Rachaad White.
He's had six, one and five receptions in their three games so far, with the one explained by an injury during the game, which led to the Buccs lessening his workload against the Lions.
Add to that the fact that rookie Bucky Irving, who had come in and was doing well recently, is on the injury report as I write this, and I think that White will be involved heavily in the game plan. If the Eagles can keep the ball safe and put up points then we should be quids in this weekend.
Bengals game going way over the total
Chuba Hubbard has found the endzone 😎