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Fulham's away profile makes Wolves the value side on Sunday. Fulham have failed to score in 44% of away matches across the season and those numbers have weakened even further recently.
They have now failed to score in each of their last four away fixtures and their away shots on target total of just nine across that run is the lowest of any side in this weekend's data.
Their away xG battle won rate of 38.9% also highlights a side struggling to control matches away from home. Wolves meanwhile have collected seven points from their last four home games despite weaker underlying numbers, showing an ability to grind out results when needed.
Everton's home profile makes them one of the strongest selections on Sunday's card.
Their home shots on target total of 41 across the last eight matches is the highest of any home side playing in the afternoon fixtures, highlighting sustained attacking pressure. Everton also hold a clear edge in the xG battle numbers, winning 44.4% of home contests compared to Sunderland's away figure of just 22.2%, one of the lowest rates in the division.
Sunderland have failed to score in 44% of away games this season while their away non penalty xG of 0.97 is among the weakest figures on Sunday's schedule. Everton's home xPTS total of 6.54 across the last four games comfortably exceeds Sunderland's 2.89 away return.
Brighton's away numbers continue to stand out strongly heading into Elland Road. Their away xPTS total of 15.00 across the last eight matches is the second highest in the league while their away shots on target total of 41 across the same period is the strongest of any away side on Sunday's card.
Brighton are averaging 5.125 shots on target per match during that run, comfortably above Leeds' home shots on target conceded figure. Their away non penalty xG of 1.30 remains among the strongest in the division and they have failed to score in only 22% of away fixtures.
Leeds' defensive process at home remains strong but Brighton's superior attacking profile across every meaningful metric gives them the edge.
Bet: Wolves, Everton and Brighton all to win at 14/1 with BetVictor
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals combined stands out strongly at Old Trafford on Sunday. Manchester United are averaging 1.93 non penalty xG at home across their last four games while conceding 1.20 non penalty xGA over the same period.
Forest continue to carry threat away from home, producing 1.21 xG while conceding 1.40 xGA on the road. United have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals land in each of their last four home fixtures while Forest have produced a 100% away both teams to score rate over the same period. Everything points towards another open match.
Bet: Wolves, Everton and Brighton all to win, Man Utd vs Forest over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 28/1 with Coral
West Ham's situation changes the profile of this game entirely. They arrive at St James' Park knowing defeat could effectively end their survival hopes and desperation often creates a different type of performance to what season long away numbers suggest.
Newcastle's recent home process has weakened considerably with a home xPTS total of only 4.23 across their last four matches.
Their home non penalty xGA of 2.45 during that run is the weakest defensive home figure on the weekend card. West Ham's away xG of 1.36 against those numbers creates a strong case for the visitors contributing and potentially taking advantage of Newcastle's recent defensive issues.
Bet: Wolves, Everton, Brighton and West Ham all to win, Man Utd vs Forest over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 85/1 with Coral
Over 2.5 goals stands out as the strongest angle from Brentford against Crystal Palace. Palace have produced a 100% away both teams to score rate across their last four away matches and continue to contribute goals wherever they travel.
Their away xGA of 1.14 also reflects a side allowing opportunities regularly. Brentford meanwhile have generated 1.69 non penalty xG across their last four home matches and their home both teams to score rate of 75% highlights how often goals arrive at the Gtech. The combined over 2.5 goals rate from recent home and away data sits at 75%, comfortably above the market expectation.
Bet: Wolves, Everton, Brighton and West Ham all to win, Man Utd vs Forest over 2.5 goals and BTTS, Brentford vs Palace over 2.5 goals at 143/1 with Coral
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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