Norway Tippeligaen, 5pm, Thursday
MOLDE once again mixed up their starting line-up in pursuit of a return to form against Start.
Orjan Nyland replaced Ole Soderberg in goal for his first Tippeligaen start, Magne Simonsen came into midfield with Martin Linnes dropping to right-back, while Etzaz Hussain and Magne Hoseth came into midfield for Emmanuel Ekpo and Joshua Gatt.
Striker Daniel Chima Chukwu was also dropped, meaning Jo Inge Berget started up front alone. It’s fair to say that this experiment didn’t work; Chukwu was brought on just after half-time.
Aalesund have a number of selection issues. Striker Leke James returned to the side in place of Tremaine Stewart for the home against Rosenborg on the weekend, scoring one of his team’s two goals. Since the absence of the Demar Phillips, Aalesund’s form has dropped and they will be desperate to get him back pronto.
Molde team news
Suspended: None. Doubtful: Joona Toivio (back), Borre Stenslid (knee), Kristoffer Vatshaug (hamstring). Injured/unavailable: Victor Johansen (ankle), Espen Bugge Pettersen (hamstring).
Aalesund team news
Suspended: None. Doubtful: Tor Hogne Aaroy (calf), Nymo Matland, Tremaine Stewart (ankle). Injured/unavailable: Daniel Arnefjord (knee), Peter Orry Larsen (ankle), Demar Phillips (personal reasons).
Match preview
Molde needed a goalkeeping error to hand them the equaliser and a draw against Start on Molde. They have now recorded the worst start by a reigning champion in Norwegian history, with just two points from seven.
They go into their local derby with Aalesund bottom of the table. Aalesund will be eager to make things worse for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side so the pressure is really on and they are yet to manage a single point at home this season.
Aalesund were left wondering what happened after giving away a 2-0 lead against Rosenborg on Saturday. It’s now been three games since the club’s last victory and they are perhaps lucky to remain so high up the table after their fantastic start to the season. They will see Molde, who are so low on confidence, as a possible place to get back on winning track.
Recommended Bet
Aalesund FK WIN @ 3/1 BET365
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
7:30 K/O
In Romania this season ten of Pandurii Targu-Jiu’s 14 Liga home games have produced Over 2.5 Goals and so have 9/13 Viitorul Constanta away matches, including six of the last seven.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.93 in Pandurii v Viitorul Constanta
Milesey
LAY OF THE DAY
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It’s the final of the Dutch Cup this evening and I think we should be in for plenty of goals between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven.
AZ have had a really poor league campaign and with just one game to go, they look set to miss out on the Europa League play-off places. They had a miserable middle-part of the season but they have at least come good towards the end and have won four of their last six in the Eredivisie.
Gertjan Verbeek’s side have done well in the Dutch Cup though and after being aided by some kind draws in the earlier rounds, they showed their quality by thrashing newly crowned league champions Ajax by three goals to nil in the semis.
It’s all about goals, goals, goals with AZ and all five of their cup matches have gone over 2.5, with four going over 3.5. It’s a similar story in the league as their last four results have been 6-0, 1-3, 4-0 and 4-0.
PSV will have been disappointed to lose out to Ajax in the Eredivisie but they can at least gain some consolation by winning their 10th KNVB Cup. Dick Advocaat’s men warmed up for the final by winning their last three, and like their opponents, they are also all about goals.
The Peasants have scored an incredible 102 league goals this season and with 40 conceded, their fixtures have averaged a huge 4.3 goals each time. They also seem to produce the goods against AZ as the last six meetings between the pair have all gone over 3.5 goals, with two going over 4.5 and their match in September going over 5.5.
Dutch football is usually good for high scoring affairs and tonight should be no different. That’s why, with under 3.5 goals trading at around the 1.81 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar v PSV @ 1.81
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Milesey
( betfair )
Milesey, aargh!
Milesey, aargh!
hahaha,
I’m with you now ;)
I’ve had bad luck today so far, teams that should have pumped the other have won by 1-0 scorelines, hope this trend is going to change.
Milesey
AZ 2 nil up, only 15 minutes gone ;) ;)
Milesey
Easiest game ever to predict btts and over 2.5, 3.5! lol. AZ were amazing against heerenveen when I watched them. Don’t surpise me the scoreline!
Molde game aaaargggh!
Anyways did btts in lillestrom and Molde game to cover, waiting for next goals in both games. Hope i havnt jinxd it tho
MOLDE 4 – 1 AALESUND
STILL 20 MINUTES TO GO !
I’m off to scream outside for 20 minutes, now i know why they were 3/1, thought it was good value……….. guess today was the day MOLDE found their form again.
Milesey
Milesey, looks like you’ll be right with AZ v PSV though. I covered my losses with no more goals but disappointing anyway.
i’m not right hahahaha
I LAYED UNDER 3.5 GOALS.
Milesey
but then i traded out when the 3rd goal went in for some profit for i put it back on a horse.
Milesey
………… and the horse fell on it’s arse so i lost anyway ha ha ha ha
Milesey
Milesey, sorry so you did. I feel better now.
never had a huge single on them just fancied them for the pure fact they are the champions going on the 3rd year in a row for other punters that don’t now Molde are notorious for starting ….shite…. I mean this with all goodness off my intermediate knowledge of the summer leagues an other example Tromso are an effing nightmare to beat whilst at home
7:15 WINCANTON
TESHALI @ 3.0 betfair
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7:30 K/O
In Romania this season ten of Pandurii Targu-Jiu’s 14 Liga home games have produced Over 2.5 Goals and so have 9/13 Viitorul Constanta away matches, including six of the last seven.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.93 in Pandurii v Viitorul Constanta
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LEICESTER to beat Watford
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Darts bets on, and going to watch the golf and chill !
Milesey
HORSE RACING TIPS
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FRIDAY 10TH MAY 2013
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2:15 CHESTER
CONTRIBUTER 7/4 bet365
Successful at 1m 1f and 1m 2f on good to soft ground and on the all-weather. A winner at 7-4 at Newbury over 1m 2f (good to soft) on his latest outing last month, beating Cruck Realta by 1 1/4l.
2:45 CHESTER
MOUNT APHOS 6/5 stanjames
Winner of seven races from 1m 2f to 1m 6f on good to firm and good ground and on the all-weather. Beaten 10l behind Gentildonna when 12th of 17 on his latest outing in the Group 1 Japan Cup at Tokyo over 1m 4f (firm) in November last year.
2:55 MARKET RASEN
BADGERS RETREAT 2/1 betvictor
A winner at 14-1 in a chase at Sedgefield over 2m 6f (good) on his latest outing last month, beating Hawaii Klass by 1/2l.
3:30 MARKET RASEN
BOCCIANI 12/1 bet365
Winner of three hurdle races and four chases from 2m to 2m 4f on ground varying from good to firm to heavy. A winner at 6-1 in a chase at Ayr over 2m 4f (good to soft) on his latest outing last month, beating Mr Moonshine by 5l.
2:05 LINGFIELD
BEAT OF THE DRUM 7/4 totesport
Won on her latest outing when 2-1fav at Kempton over 1m last month, beating Sinaadi by a head
2:35 LINGFIELD
CARAMACK 2/1 paddypower
Placed in four of five starts. Third of 12 behind Ogbourne Downs beaten 1 1/2l at 7-4fav on his latest outing at Windsor over 1m (good) last month.
8:15 ASCOT
INTRIGO 3/1 paddypower
He has won three times at 7f on good to firm and soft ground and on the all-weather. Won on his latest outing when 9-4fav at Leicester over 7f (good to firm) last month, beating Gravitational by 2l. Has also won at Lingfield this season.
Milesey
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Brighton v Crystal Palace
Friday, 19:45, Live on Sky Sports One
Despite being some 40 miles apart up the A23 these two sides are bitter rivals and there will be an electric Friday night atmosphere at Selhurst Park for this first leg.
Brighton
Having gone nine games unbeaten to end the season, Gus Poyet’s side are in the best form of the four teams in the Championship playoffs. They finished the season with the league’s best defensive record, conceding just 43 goals and will be confident of progressing over the two legs having comfortably beaten their rivals 3-0 at home last month.
Kazenga Lua Lua has scored three times in the last three for the Seagulls. You’d expect Poyet to set his stall out to keep things tight in the first leg and be confident of coming out on top after the second leg on Monday evening.
Crystal Palace
In contrast Palace had gone nine games without a win and seen their outside hopes of an automatic promotion spot evaporate until their 3-2 win over Peterborough on the final day of the season. Former Albion striker Glenn Murray’s penalty in that victory was his first for nine matches and took his tally for the season to 30, of which 12 have come from the spot.
Ian Holloway is renowned for his motivational abilities and they’ll be needed to the full. Palace were the highest goalscorers at home (52) and picked up more points than everyone else bar champions Cardiff but that win over Posh was the first in five at Selhurst Park.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
We can expect tight and tense to be the operative words in SE25 both on the pitch and off it. Under 2.5 Goals can be backed at 1.8 and I’m happy to take that given Albion’s impressive defensive record and Holloway’s acceptance that his side need to stop their opponents playing before they can think too much about going on the offensive.
Correct Score
The visitors have been involved in six goalless draws this season – more than any other side in the division and would be more than happy with a seventh here so backing the 0-0 scoreline is worth a small play at 10.5
Best Bet
Back under 2.5 Goals @ 1.8
Other Bet
Back 0-0 @ 10.5
Milesey
HORSE RACING TIPS
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FRIDAY 10TH MAY 2013
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2:15 CHESTER
CONTRIBUTER 7/4 bet365
Successful at 1m 1f and 1m 2f on good to soft ground and on the all-weather. A winner at 7-4 at Newbury over 1m 2f (good to soft) on his latest outing last month, beating Cruck Realta by 1 1/4l.
2:45 CHESTER
MOUNT APHOS 6/5 stanjames
Winner of seven races from 1m 2f to 1m 6f on good to firm and good ground and on the all-weather. Beaten 10l behind Gentildonna when 12th of 17 on his latest outing in the Group 1 Japan Cup at Tokyo over 1m 4f (firm) in November last year.
2:55 MARKET RASEN
BADGERS RETREAT 2/1 betvictor
A winner at 14-1 in a chase at Sedgefield over 2m 6f (good) on his latest outing last month, beating Hawaii Klass by 1/2l.
3:30 MARKET RASEN
BOCCIANI 12/1 bet365
Winner of three hurdle races and four chases from 2m to 2m 4f on ground varying from good to firm to heavy. A winner at 6-1 in a chase at Ayr over 2m 4f (good to soft) on his latest outing last month, beating Mr Moonshine by 5l.
2:05 LINGFIELD
BEAT OF THE DRUM 7/4 totesport
Won on her latest outing when 2-1fav at Kempton over 1m last month, beating Sinaadi by a head
2:35 LINGFIELD
CARAMACK 2/1 paddypower
Placed in four of five starts. Third of 12 behind Ogbourne Downs beaten 1 1/2l at 7-4fav on his latest outing at Windsor over 1m (good) last month.
8:15 ASCOT
INTRIGO 3/1 paddypower
He has won three times at 7f on good to firm and soft ground and on the all-weather. Won on his latest outing when 9-4fav at Leicester over 7f (good to firm) last month, beating Gravitational by 2l. Has also won at Lingfield this season.
Milesey
Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs
Everton 1.53 v West Ham 7.6; The Draw 4.4
With both sides having very little to play for we can ignore that four players have been sent off in the last six Premier League meetings and expect an uncommonly tepid affair.
The Toffees are unbeaten in four games against West Ham, although three of those ended as a draw, while David Moyes’ men have also been involved in more draws this season (15) than any other Premier League side.
Throw into the equation that West Ham have drawn four of their last six and all indicators point to this one ending level. Back the draw at healthy odds of 4.4.
Best Bet: Back the Draw @ 4.4
Fulham 4.1 v Liverpool 2.04; The Draw 3.65
Martin Jol was one of many breathing a sigh of relief at the sight of Wigan failing to pick up any points against Swansea in midweek. With their superior goal difference the Cottagers now look pretty much safe, despite picking up just one point from a possible 18.
Liverpool have won three of their last five Barclays Premier League meetings with Fulham; including a 4-0 win earlier in the season, while Fulham have won none of the eight Premier League games they have played this season without Steve Sidwell in the side. Sidwell serves the third match of a four-game suspension this weekend.
Best Bet: Back Liverpool to win @ 2.04
Norwich 2.22 v West Brom 3.75; The Draw 3.5
Chris Hughton would also have slept better on Tuesday evening following Wigan’s loss, but it would be folly of he and his Norwich players to believe that they are safe yet.
The Canaries have collected just 13 Premier League points this calendar year, and nobody has won fewer than the measly two games that they have mustered in 2013.
West Brom were unable to pick up anything against Wigan at the weekend, but Norwich are a different proposition entirely and are there to be taken advantage of. The Baggies have already secured successive top-flight top half finishes for the first time since 1980 and 1981, and can celebrate with three points here.
Best Bet: Back West Brom to win @ 3.75
QPR 3.4 v Newcastle 2.34; The Draw 3.45
Alan Pardew would also be foolish to assume that his team are safe from the drop following Wigan’s defeat as they sit just three points above the drop zone with two games to play.
However, they are afforded the luxury of taking on a QPR side that have won only two home league games all season, have gone 365 minutes without scoring a goal and have failed to find the back of the net in seven of their last nine games at Loftus Road.
Newcastle haven’t won any of their penultimate Premier League games since 2003, and arrive in the capital with goal-scoring problems of their own having gone 262 minutes without a goal.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.0
Sunderland 2.78 v Southampton 2.92; The Draw 3.25
With the club’s three top scorers unavailable – Steven Fletcher (injured), Stephane Sessegnon (suspended) and Craig Gardner (suspended) – Sunderland will be relying on keeping things tight at the back in order to pick up the win that would all but guarantee their safety.
Danny Graham has now gone 944 minutes in all competitions without finding the back of the net, while Sunderland’s last two goals have come from defenders.
Southampton are also struggling going forwards having now gone 301 minutes without a Premier League goal, while four of Southampton’s last five games have gone under 2.5 goals.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.82
Milesey
( betfair )
2 – 1
half – time
JOB DONE !
7:30 K/O
In Romania this season ten of Pandurii Targu-Jiu’s 14 Liga home games have produced Over 2.5 Goals and so have 9/13 Viitorul Constanta away matches, including six of the last seven.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.93 in Pandurii v Viitorul Constanta
Milesey
Cheers or the Romanian game Milesey :)
Over 1.5 first half goals 13/8 Winner
Over 2.5 goals 4/5 winner
Over 2.5 Pandurii goals ( 2 so far)
At least a game has gone right today, the others i expected goals in both ended 1-0, and then my bet of the day got smashed 4-1, guess it’s comeback for my 6-0 win yesterday.
Milesey
WEEKEND LAYING ;) ;)
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Lay Bordeaux to beat Nancy @ 2.4
After showing significant promise early in their Ligue 1 campaign, Bordeaux are now shackled in mid-table due in no small part to their propensity for a draw. France’s ninth-placed side have drawn an incredible 16 times in 35 league games this season, twice more than any other team and eight times more than Paris St-Germain at the summit. Here they face a Nancy side fighting for their top-flight status. However, the visitors have displayed brilliant character to pull away from the bottom of the division after spending the majority of their campaign propping up the rest. A run of six games unbeaten which included four wins may have been ended by third-placed Lyon at the weekend but, given that this game comes three days before Bordeaux’s French Cup semi-final, the hosts will surely rest players and could lose focus.
Lay Osasuna to beat Getafe @ 1.95
A cursory glance at the form book is enough to alert the potential layer to this shades of odds-on price for struggling Osasuna. Hovering precariously just a point above the danger zone, the hosts’ 4-0 drilling away to Valencia last Saturday represented their sixth loss in nine La Liga games, a dire run which has witnessed a solitary win six games ago. Eighth-placed Getafe make the trip still harbouring faint dreams of a Europa League spot after pulling off one of the results of the weekend by ending Real Sociedad’s 15-game La Liga unbeaten run with a 2-1 victory on Monday. This should give the visitors every confidence that they can improve on the 1-1 draw with Osasuna earlier in the season.
Lay Werder Bremen to beat Eintracht Frankfurt @ 2.24
Since clinching a third-place finish back in 2009/10, Werder have really struggled to make an impression in the higher reaches of the Bundesliga. Now they find themselves embroiled in a relegation battle after a truly dismal second half of their campaign which has witnessed only two wins that both arrived way back at the beginning of February. Their next 11 games have seen their fans endure six losses and five draws leaving them teetering just three points above safety heading into this game against Frankfurt. Meanwhile, newly promoted Frankfurt – who’ve picked up seven points from their last nine available – are hot on the heels of Schalke in fifth as they chase Champions League football for the first time.
Milesey
full house Greg ;) ;)
Nice one
Milesey
FORMULA ONE
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We all know the drivers are the stars of the Formula One show, but the Spanish Grand Prix is where the mechanics take over.
The three week break from Bahrain to Barcelona gives the garages the time to take stock of the opening results of the season and work out what to do next. They pore over the data – telemetry to give it its proper name – and bring out all the upgrades. By the time the F1 circus sets up camp again the form from the first four races becomes only a vague guideline.
Certainly all the teams are talking up their technical work this week. McLaren say they will give Jenson Button a “significant” number of updates to the troubled MP4-28 car (and they need to after not finishing higher than fifth so far). Ferrari have revealed they are making changes to the bodywork, floor and wings. Lotus, the surprise package of the early races, are just as bullish about the “continuing development programme for the E21″. And Ross Brawn reckons long hours in the Mercedes factory has helped solve the lack of race pace compared to qualifying times so far.
In fact the only people who aren’t talking about their upgrades are Red Bull. The official quotes released by the team on behalf of Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber are more of a travel guide than a race preview, talking about the weather, the hotels, the relaxed atmosphere of the Circuit de Catalunya, in fact about pretty much everything except what work has been done to improve their cars.
Now that can mean one of two things. It could mean they’ve given themselves a three-week holiday to pat themselves on the back for the way Vettel shot away from Nico Rosberg at the start in Bahrain and cruised to his second victory of the season. Or far more likely it means they think actions will speak louder than words when they put the cars on the track in Barcelona.
The early market for the Spanish Grand Prix race winner, however, seems more entranced by the technical talk. Vettel, despite winning two of four races, is a generous 3.35 for victory. I know that second favourite Fernando Alonso (4.0) has a superb record in his home event – he may have won only once in Barcelona be he has been on the podium in seven of the 11 times he’s raced there. But I’m intrigued by the secrecy around Red Bull’s development work and that makes me suspect it’s at least equal to, or probably better, than anybody else.
The other stats worth knowing for Barcelona are that it is a tough track to overtake on. Last year there were less than 30 overtakes in the race, less than one every two laps. And on 17 occasions the driver who started on pole has still been in the lead when the chequered flag was waved. That seems to suggest a flutter on Vettel/Vettel at 4.5 in the Qualifying/Winner Double market.
Milesey
( Betfair )
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Delhi Daredevils vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Start time: 15.30
TV: live on ITV4
Delhi Daredevils
There are some things in life which do not make sense. Delhi Dardevils’ atrocious IPL form is one of them. With the calibre of players like Mahela Jayawardene, Viru Sehwag and David Warner they should be a shoo-in for the top four. But they have already been effectively knocked out and cannot qualify for the next stage. That is a disgrace and there need to be serious questions asked as to how a collection of talent has lost nine from 12. After being bowled out for 80 against Hyderabad, Delhi were then thumped by nine wickets by Rajasthan. A shambles.
Royal Challengers Bangalore
To be frank, Bangalore aren’t much better. Sure, Chris Gayle has whacked the fatest-ever century and they currently sit fourth. But they are specialists at throwing away games they have won. Remember when they somehow contrived to tie from an almost impregnable position against (you guessed it), Delhi? They out did that versus King’s XI Punjab. Having set them 191 to win it was job done. And the points were definitely in the bag when King’s were reduced to 64 for three. But atrocious bowling from Gayle, Vinay Kumar and RP Singh gifted victory. And Virat Kohli dropped a sitter, too.
First-innings runs
Here are the last seven first-innings scores at the Feroz Shah Kotla this season and last: 120-161-169-114-165-215-136. That is an average of 154, although it should be noted that the fly in the ointment – the massive 215 – was by Bangalore hands in 2012. Chris Gayle scored 128 from 65 balls in that match. Delhi are not a side to be expecting big runs from. They have scored more than 155 only three times so far. Therefore it would be smart to get against them for more than 160 if they bat first. By contrast, Bangalore have totalled more than 170 on the last four occasions they have batted first and more than 160 in the last five.
Match odds
For our money, Bangalore are as untrustworthy as Delhi so we would rather suck out our brains with a vacuum cleaner than bet them at a laughable 1.60. This contest is a no brainer, really. Back Delhi at 2.50 as we are confident that Bangalore’s bunch who have the attention span of about, ooh, 20 minutes, will ensure the hosts get a sniff. And one shouldn’t panic if Bangalore appear to be cruising. In the previous meeting, Bangalore statistically had a 100 per cent chance of winning the match when AB De Villiers and Virat Kohli were cruising in a chase. But Delhi still traded as low as 1.32. Okay, they didn’t win (match odds bets are void in the event of a tie) but you get the picture.
Top Delhi runscorer
In that previous meeting, Kedhar Jadav top scored with 29 from 16 balls. Jayawardene was one run behind but his strike rate, painstaking at this level, was only just above 90. The most reliable Delhi willowman is Warner, who can at least hold his head high with 360 runs at a strike rate of 131.
Top Bangalore batsman
Gayle has top scored six times in 12 matches so the 2.50 available about him making it seven in 13 can be considered value.
Recommended bet
Back-to-lay Delhi at 2.56
Milesey