Napoli v Inter, Sunday, 7.45pm
ON the face of it this looks like a real glamour fixture but regular viewers of Serie A will know all too well just how much Inter's star has fallen.
When Andrea Stramaccioni's team beat Napoli back in December they went second in the table but a dire end to the season has seen them fall away and they'll need to finish well to even make the top eight.
Unfortunately for us the rest of the world has caught up with just how bad Inter have become and so Napoli are trading at 1.46 (40-85) for the win they're likely to get.
Javier Zanetti became the most recent and the most heartbreaking addition to Inter's injury list last week and so their squad is down to worse than the bare bones.
I can't see any way Inter will escape from San Paolo with anything other than a heavy defeat and with Edinson Cavani back in the side they could dish out a real beating.
Napoli showed last week against Pescara they have learned how to win games without Cavani and have goalscoring options elsewhere (notably Blerim Dzemaili).
So it's a question now of how we support Napoli in this one. I'm keen to have a small bet on “any unquoted” in the correct score market. If you can get matched at around the 5.8 (5-1) mark that should give you a run for your money and have a look as well at supporting Napoli in the Inter +1 and Inter + 2 markets.
The evening may end up laced with regret – for Inter that the season should finish so poorly and for Napoli that their mid-season loss of form cost them a real chance of the Scudetto.
With Cavani almost certainly gone in the summer they may never have a better opportunity.
Back “Any Unquoted” in the Correct Score market in Napoli v Inter
Lazio v Bologna, Sunday, 2pm
THIS is the time of the season when you have to start being careful in Serie A. Bologna are 6.2 (5-1) to win at Lazio this weekend and normally that would look like sensational value.
But there's been a sense with them of playing from memory in recent weeks and that's probably what has pushed their price to where it is. Lazio haven't won since the end of March and their slide down the table has mirrored that of Inter.
They've looked uninspired in front of goal despite the return of Miroslav Klose and there's certainly nothing here that will trouble Bologna.
Stefano Pioli has proved himself an excellent coach this season and is now being rightly linked with a series of top jobs.
I think he'll be keen for his team to end the season on a high and finish in the top 10 while if we're worried about Bologna's motivation we should maybe remember Lazio's European chances could now rest on the Rome derby cup final – and their players might be forgiven for casting a distant eye to that fixture.
Either way Bologna have just about a fully-fit squad for this and have already shown they can pick up big away wins at Roma, Napoli and Inter.
They have drawn their last five games and with Lazio trading at 1.65 (4-6) laying them is an option. But I'm sticking with my initial feeling I can't let Bologna go unbacked at bigger than 5-1 and so they're my selection.
Bologna to beat Lazio @ 6.25-1