MILESEY'S bet of the day on Wednesday wasn't even a sweat – in act no one needed a serviette to wipe their brows as Servette smashed Sion 4-0.
Now he's going for Piast v Korona. I too have been pissed on Corona and may crack open a bottle to celebrate if they lose this one.
Piast Gliwice v Korona (7.45)
Piast Gliwice (3rd) have played 13 Polish Ekstraklasa matches this season at Stadion Piast. On home ground Piast have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 4. Korona (8th) have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 9 in 13 away outings.
Against opponent such as Korona who are placed mid-table Gliwice have managed to collect an average of 2.29 points in seven matches this season.
When looking at matches played away against the top six this season Korona have collected zero points on average in four matches which suggests this will be another defeat.
Recommended Bets
Piast @ 4/5
Piast 2-0 @ 7/1
Milesey (Betfair)
In December 2020 we sadly 
BOCA JUNIORS – NEWELL’S OLD BOYS PREDICTIONS
All Argentine clash in quarter final 3 of this year’s Copa Libertadores. Boca Juniors are struggling at the foot of the table and face up to league leaders Newells.
Boca Juniors are one of the powerhouses of Argentina and indeed South American football. With 30 league titles to their name, as well as 6 Copa Libertadores and 3 Intercontinental titles too. Boca were beaten finalists in last year’s edition, going down in a fierce battle with Corinthians. This season has been a disaster on a league front with Boca currently 18th from 20 teams with 2 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats. They are safe from relegation (for now) under the countries complex three season aggregates ruling. In Copa Libertadores they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats so far. They had a relatively straight forward group but struggled to dominate Nacional, Toluca and Barcelona, scraping though by 1 point. In last 16 knockout they were drawn against last year’s winners Corinthians again and no one outside of Buenos Aires predicted a Boca victory. However La Bombonera was rocking and they prevailed at home 1-0. In Brazil they were then expected to capitulate but with a game plan and a solid performance they matched Corinthians. A goal from returning hero Juan Riquelme from about 40 yards summed up the performance and Boca prevailed. Legendary coach Carlos Bianchi is back for a third spell and the belief in the club and fans is so high they could do it, even without a side anywhere near what they are used to.
Newells Old Boys have experienced success in Argentina but not to the levels of the bigger sides. 5 national titles is all they have to show for it but they hope to change that this year. They are having a spectacular season and could go all the way in the league and here in Copa Libertadores. Playing entertaining, attacking football they sit at the top of Torneo Final after 14 games. With a record of 9 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats the only thing stopping them from succeeding is the difficulty of fighting on two fronts. Newell’s have struggled a little in the league over the last month or so as they try and balance the two competitions. In Ignacio Scocco they have a striker capable of anything and his scoring rate is sensational. They have quality in all areas and the aggressive defender Gabrial Heinz is marshalling the defence, the backline is probably their main weak point as they do tend to concede. So far in Copa Lib this season its been a bit hit and miss for the side from Rosario with 4 wins and 4 defeats so far. They had a similar tie in the last round with another all Argentine affair this time with struggling Velez, it was a close tie but Newells went through on away goals.
BOCA JUNIORS – NEWELL’S OLD BOYS: BETTING TIPS
A huge game for both sides and one that I feel could be a cracking tie. In the league it is Newells who are running away with it and they are currently 16 points ahead of their rivals. In recent ties Boca have won 3 and drawn 1 of the last 4 games without conceding a goal. The sides will lock head at the weekend too in the league so these sides will be pretty sick of each other come the end of the month. In this particular tie though I see Boca Juniors taking the game. At their daunting home cathedral they are capable of undoing any other side on the continent, even if their side is not up to previous elevens. Coach Bianchi will give every man a task and expect them to give every last ounce of effort. The crowd will be monstrous and I do expect Newells to buckle. The odds on Boca (2.60 bet365) are very generous and I think Bookmakers are reading too much into current league from which is a big mistake.
Milesey
ROMA – LAZIO PREDICTIONS
Coppa Italia finals time and it’s a Derby della Capitale at the Stadio Olimpico. The teams were split by a single point in the standings of Italy Serie A so the game could not be more closely matched.
Roma go into the game in good form, with 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 9 games. This sequence is all the more impressive when you see they played Milan, Napoli, Lazio and Inter in that time. The side look far more comfortable under Auerelio Andreazzoli. The Zeman experiment went as expected with the side scoring goals for fun and playing entertaining attacking football whilst also slipping down the table as they capitulated defensively time and time again. Roma finished the Italy Serie A season in 6th with 18 wins, 8 draws and 12 defeats. They go into this game keen to win and gain a silver star for what would be their 10th Coppa Italia success and also to enter Europa League. Roma have injuries to Martin Skelenburg in goal and Daniele De Rossi, but good news in tha Marquinhos is recovered from injury. Talisman Francesco Totti will go into the game fresh as he has missed recent game time with a suspension.
Lazio go into the game in mixed form with 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from the last 9 games. On the last day of the season they ended with a defeat and lost 6th position to Roma. Ending the season in 7th with 18 wins, 4 draws and 13 defeats. Lazio go into the game with injury worries over several key players. Defenders Michael Ciani and Ogenyi Onazi are receiving intensive therapy while key man for Biancocelesti Hernanes is rated doubtful. If he is confirmed missing Lazio lose their attacking impetus.
ROMA – LAZIO: BETTING TIPS
A huge game for both sides and another game that I feel could be a cracking tie. The whole thing adds up to a super occasion for Italian football. Roma v Lazio in a major final, with local bragging rights and a place in European competition up for grabs. With the addition of Psy playing Gangnam Style before the match what more could a football fan want? I really fancy a fresh and inform Roma to take this game. The sheer importance of this game and the derby factor means its not entirely straight forward. I am taking Roma to lift the trophy at 1.75 with bet365.
Milesey
CRYSTAL PALACE – WATFORD PREDICTIONS
Crystal Palace take on Watford at Wembley in a game dubbed “The richest match in football” A huge game between two sides who played some of the best football in the division over the season. Neither side has graced the top tier since the mid 2000’s so both sides will be desperate for victory.
Crystal Palace go into this game as the underdogs of the playoffs and the underdogs in this match. This is because of their awful form in 2013 were they seemed to fall apart at the seams. Palace have won just twice in the last ten games with five draws and three defeats. Goals have been hard to come back in that time with six goal less games in that period. Crystal Palace finished in 5th with 19 wins, 15 draws and 12 defeats, they ended up with a goal difference of +11. Star striker Glen Murray’s season is over after injuring his cruciate ligament. Aaron Wilbraham or Kevin Phillips will take his place but Palace have Paddy McCarthy (groin) and Jonathan Parr (ankle) still out. Wifried Zaha finally came good with a brace to take the game at Brighton, after a sloppy start to the game in which he never looked anything like a 15 Million pound man. After the half time break he entered the field a different player and was the difference between the two sides.
Watford finished third in England Championship and just missed out on automatic promotion. They were looking done and dusted in the playoff semi final too. Leading 2-1 in the match (2-2 on aggregate) they conceded a 96th minute penalty. If Leicester scored they would be through and Watford would have to wait another year. Anthony Knockaert shot was saved by keeper Almunia as was the follow up and unbeleiveably the ball broke clear and Watford ran the legnth of the field and scored! Troy Deeney who had disgraced himself in the final league match made amends and more. Watford still look a little shakey and will need to compose themselves for the final.
CRYSTAL PALACE – WATFORD:BETTING TIPS
Watford are the rightful favourites here and go into the game with the form and the higher league position but I take Crystal Palace in the To Qualify market at 2.20. Crystal Palace have the all round side to do the job on the day and there is something about Watford which screams individuals to me. A prime example of this is after the mistakes by young 3rd keeper Jack Bonham, not one players tried to console him or gee him up. Watford are a team of loanee’s from Udinese and Granada and Prem sides. I think Palace have the upper hand here and take them to get the win. I take the insurance of To Qualify such is the importance of the match.
Bet365 are the bookmaker to visit to back Crystal Palace To Qualify
Milesey
Watford v Crystal Palace
Monday, 15:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Favourites Watford could be upset in the Championship playoff final against a resilient Crystal Palace side who have returned to form at the perfect time of the season.
Two wins in three after a spell of nine games without victory take Ian Holloway’s Palace into the showpiece final at Wembley brimming with confidence. Star man Wilfried Zaha struck a decisive double blow against bitter rivals Brighton at the Amex in the semi-final second-leg to secure the Eagles a shot at the Premier League, which at odds of 3.10 they are good value to take.
Despite just two goals in 25 appearances before scoring twice against the Seagulls, Manchester United-bound Zaha showed his taste for the big occasion on the south coast, and he could replicate that performance and take Palace into the top-flight with a similar showing in his last game for the club before switching to Old Trafford.
Good record
Monday’s clash represents the fifth time Palace will contest a Championship playoff final, and the South London club have a good record winning in 1989, 1997 and 2004 with just one defeat in 1996. You can add to that Ian Holloway’s playoff success with Blackpool in 2010, although he did lose last year’s final against West Ham. But his and the club’s experience at this crucial juncture of the season could be vital, with Palace having also played in more Championship playoff finals than any other side in the country.
Watford will head to north-west London for their third playoff final in the second division, having experienced an 100% win record after promotions in 1999 and 2006. Coincidentally, that triumph was seven years apart and the Hornets have the chance to repeat history another seven years on in 2013. Adding to their cause is the fact that five of the last seven Championship playoff finals have been won by the side that finished the regular league season in third, which Watford did, in doing so producing a campaign two places and five points better off than Palace.
Gianfranco Zola’s side enjoyed a thunderous moment of retribution against Leicester in the semi-final second-leg – when Watford recovered from a final-day full of mishaps and back luck to concede a penalty minutes from time only to see goalkeeper Manuel Almunia save and instigate an attack which was finished off at the other end by returning striker Troy Deeney just 20 seconds later.
Deeney is a worthy option to score at Wembley too, having struck form with six goals in his last nine games for the club. The former Aston Villa forward – who was in prison at the beginning of the season – will end it with at least 20 goals for the campaign. His strike partner Matej Vydra notched two more with a haul of 22, and his double during the 3-1 win over the Foxes to take them through to the final was impressive.
Destiny
Although, like Brentford in the League One playoff final, destiny does not always follow the suggested script on the day, with the Bees suffering Wembley heartache after a turbulent few weeks not dissimilar to that of Watford. At a price of just 2.2, the Hornets don’t offer tempting odds despite their perceived advantages over their opponents.
One thing that can be expected however is goals, considering the last 10 competitive meetings between Palace and Watford have produced 38, and average of 3.8 per match. Both encounters between these two sides this season offered four strikes or more, with the Selhurst Park clash ending 3-2 to away team Watford and the corresponding fixture at Vicarage Road a 2-2 draw with a second half rally from the visitors.
A huge blow to Holloway’s team selection is the knee injury of Championship top scorer Glenn Murray (30), but in Zaha the playoff specialists will arguably possess the best player on the pitch at Wembley. Watford’s tendency to suffer red-cards – they have been given a league-high six red cards in the division this season – is a cause for concern to Hornets fans, while Palace have been awarded more penalties in the league (15) than any other team.
Including playoff matches, Watford have averaged 1.83 goals per game this season; and sit atop of the league table for goals scored. But the Eagles aren’t far behind with the third highest average, registering 1.56 times a match. Those looking for a solid if unspectacular bet should consider Both Teams To Score at a healthy 1.80, but given Palace’s playoff pedigree and influential figures Holloway on the sidelines and Zaha up-front, they could shock the odds and triumph in 90 minutes.
Recommended Bets
Back Crystal Palace at 3.10
Back Both Teams to Score at 1.80
Milesey
BUMPER – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PREVIEW
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TEAM IN FOCUS – BAYERN MUNICH
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Goalkeeper | Manuel Neuer
After some games, Manuel Neuer claims, he doesn’t even have to take a shower, so good is Bayern’s defence that there’s no need to get dirty making saves. When called upon, though, he is one of the best goalkeepers in the world. Also it bears remembering that he stepped up and scored a penalty in the last Champions League final, which Bayern lost and heartbreakingly so at home to Chelsea.
Back Manuel Neuer to keep a clean sheet at 2.86
Left-back | David Alaba
Scorer of the fifth fastest goal in Champions League history when his shot took an indecipherable deflection leaving Gianluigi Buffon no chance after just 26 seconds of Bayern’s quarter-final first leg against Juventus, David Alaba, ‘the young grasshopper’, has been taken under the wing of Frank Ribéry with whom he has developed a good understanding on the left flank. A full-back of great promise.
To Score 6.4
Centre-back | Dante
Described as a Schnäppen-Verteidiger or bargain defender when Bayern triggered the €4.7m release clause in his contract with Borussia Mönchegladbach last summer, Dante didn’t get the same billing as fellow summer signings Javi Martinez and Mario Mandzukic. Together with them, this elegant and assured Brazil international, admittedly a later developer at 29, has added a layer of quality which Bayern lacked last year.
To Score 13.5
Centre-back | Jérôme Boateng
Formerly of Manchester City just like his back-up Daniel van Buyten, the 24-year-old Germany international is now in his second Champions League final after leaving the Etihad where a knee injury wrecked his chances. Not that there’s any regrets. Highly regarded for his versatility Boateng, brother of AC Milan’s Kevin-Prince, can play across the back four and even in defensive midfield.
To Score 18
Right-back | Philipp Lahm
Back in 2009, Philipp Lahm gave a scathing interview to Süddeutsche Zeitung attacking the club’s culture of short-termism, its transfer policy and lack of a playing philosophy. Bayern, one assumes, took note of their captain’s words. They’ve now reached their third Champions League final in the four years since then and are held up as a model club. In addition to being the best right-back in the world, Lahm is consummate leader and winner.
To Score 18
Central Midfield | Javi Martinez
A midfield colossus with imperious poise, Javi Martinez is one of those players who takes one stride for every two taken by his opponent. Ubiquitous in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie against Arsenal, the decision made to pay Athletic Bilbao an eyebrow-raising €40m for him last summer was worthwhile not because he’s worth exactly that – Uli Hoeness admitted he isn’t – but because he’s a missing piece of a puzzle for which paying a premium in order to complete it was totally justifiable.
To Score 11
Central Midfield | Bastian Schweinsteiger
Prior to Bayern’s semi-final against Barcelona, coach Jupp Heynckes paid Schweinsteiger the following compliment: “He is the heart of the team, a midfielder with outstanding tactical ability. He always makes the right decisions. He is on a par with Iniesta and Xavi.” That’s all you need to know really except that what Schweinsteiger may lack in comparison with them, he certainly makes up for in physical stature.
To Score 6.4
Attacking Midfield Left | Arjen Robben
Were it not for Toni Kroos’ injury against Juventus in the quarter-finals, it’s unlikely Arjen Robben would be starting. He has, it must be said, been exceptional since he came on for him that night, scoring in both legs of the semi with Barcelona. The signing of Götze and return of Kroos may spell the end for him at the Allianz Arena. This could be his last hurrah in a Bayern shirt and redemption for his penalty miss in extra-time of last year’s final.
To Score 3.65
Attacking Midfield Centre | Thomas Müller
A socks-around-the-ankles footballer, Thomas Müller has been described as a Raumdeuter, the German for Space Investigator. He drifts, he lurks and eventually finds an opening. This is his talent. Being in the right place at the right time. There’s no stat for that. You’ve either got it or you haven’t. And Müller most definitely has it.
To Score 3.05
Attacking Midfield Right | Frank Ribéry
On the losing side in World Cup and Champions League finals, Franck Ribéry has been there or thereabouts in the last seven years. That’s also true of him as a player. Ribéry has straddled the line between very good and great throughout his career, threatening to break into the latter category for Bayern but not for France.
To Score 4.6
Striker | Mario Mandzukic
A real surprise. Signed from Wolfsburg for €14m as cover for Mario Gomez who suffered an ankle injury at the beginning of August, he has made the position his own on account of his goalscoring ability, sure, but above all his willingness to sacrifice himself and act as a first defender often pressing opponents and retreating back into midfield to help his teammates win the ball back.
To Score 2.6
Coach | Jupp Heynckes
Like in 1998 when he won the Champions League with Real Madrid only to lose his job, Jupp Heynckes will be pensioned off regardless of whether Bayern lift the trophy on Saturday night to make way for Pep Guardiola. It feels harsh considering this promises to be the club’s most successful ever season. The one consolation is that if Bayern do complete the treble a place in posterity awaits Heynckes and he can retire in the knowledge that he has made it difficult if not impossible for Pep to eclipse his achievements.
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TEAM IN FOCUS – BORUSSIA DORTMUND
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Goalkeeper | Roman Weidenfeller
Seven years ago, captain Roman Weidenfeller, midfielder Sebastian Kehl and director of sport Michael Zorc were members of the Dortmund team that risked relegation from the Bundesliga. They all hugged on reaching the Champions League Final, something his girlfriend predicted when the season started. “At the time I just laughed, but now I must say she was absolutely right.”
Back Roman Weidenfeller to keep a clean sheet at 6.2
Left-back | Marcel Schmelzer
When Zorc brought Marcel Schmelzer to Jürgen Klopp’s attention, the Dortmund coach looked at the academy graduate and said: “Come on, he’s just a kid.” Zorc replied: “He can always play.” That he can. Only Weidenfeller and Robert Lewandowski have made more appearances than Schmelzer this season. The buzzing left-back scored the winner at home against Real Madrid in the group stages too.
To Score 19.5
Centre-back | Mats Hummels
Formerly of Bayern Munich’s academy, Mats Hummels has become one of the most sought-after and handsome centre-backs in Europe. Excellent at playing accurate long diagonals or bringing the ball out and making raids into midfield, he gives Dortmund’s build-up play an unpredictable element. Hummels does have an error in him, though, and is a slight injury doubt for the final with a sprained ankle.
To Score 9.8
Centre-back | Neven Subotic
When Dortmund won the first of their back-to-back Bundesliga titles in 2011, Subotic went on a road trip around Europe with a couple of mates in a VW camper van. A former US youth international who then committed to Serbia, after the quarter-finals he said: “Our story this season has been like a Hollywood movie, I hope it has a Hollywood ending.”
To Score 16.5
Right-back | Łukasz Piszczek
The least heralded of Dortmund’s Polish contingent, Lukasz Piszczek has emerged as one of the Bundesliga’s best right-backs since coach Jürgen Klopp picked him up from relegated Hertha in 2010. Great at surging forward and whipping in crosses from his flank, he has been linked with Arsenal as an upgrade on the declining Bacary Sagna.
To Score 16.5
Central midfield | Ilkay Gündoğan
Signed as the replacement for Nuri Sahin after he left for Real Madrid, Gündoğan struggled at first but by the time his predecessor returned in the spring this year, he’d made the position his own. Hailed as “Dortmund’s Xavi” by Kicker, Gündoğan is the tempo-setting metronome in the middle of the park.
To Score 7.8
Central midfielder | Sven Bender
The Dortmund half of the Bender twins – brother Lars plays for Bayer Leverkusen – if this were a team of cyclists rather than footballers, Sven would be the domestique, the gregario, the water carrier who does a lot of the heavy going, the hard-running. Often clocking more than 12km a game, few cover more ground than him.
To Score 17.5
Attacking Midfielder Left | Kevin Großkreutz
Unlike Mario Götze, the ‘traitor’ of the piece for whom he is expected to stand-in after injury ruled him out of the final against future club Bayern Munich, there’s no doubting where Kevin Großkreutz’s loyalties lie. A ‘Dortmund lad’, he’d always travel and support the club, standing in the Yellow Wall even when playing for Rott Weiss Ahlen.
To Score 8.4
Attacking Midfield Centre | Marco Reus
As a nickname ‘Rolls Reus’ is a great riff on Marco’s surname, but as a description of his playing style it couldn’t be further from the truth. Rolls Royces are big and take a while to get going. Reus, on the other hand, is slight, lightning quick and nimble too. His backheel assist for Robert Lewandowski against Malaga was something else.
To Score 3.95
Attacking Midfielder Right | Jakub Błaszczykowski
Captain of Poland, Kuba looks older than his 27 years which is perhaps understandable considering what he went through as a kid. Tenacious, he brings the heat, the grit and determination to a baby-faced front four. A modern winger, he’ll get past you but you also won’t be able get past him. He isn’t one for shirking his defensive responsibilities and is arguably as good a right-back as Piszczek.
To Score 5.0
Striker | Robert Lewandowski
The first player to score four in a semi-final or later since Ferenc Puskas in the 1960 final between Real Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt, newspapers were full of stories the day after of how everyone from Tottenham and Blackburn to Genoa had almost signed Robert Lewandowski before he went to Dortmund in 2010. Expected to follow Götze to Bayern this summer, he’s established himself as one of the best centre-forwards in Europe.
To Score 2.78
Coach | Jürgen Klopp
Who wouldn’t want to play for Jürgen Klopp? True, it’s understandable that Götze and Lewandowski find Bayern and the chance to work under Pep Guardiola appealing. “I can’t make myself 15cm shorter or start speaking Spanish,” Klopp says. What he can do though is make you a great footballer, play exciting stuff and have a lot of fun while you’re doing it. The guy’s a hero.
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STATS FOR THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL
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One of the notable features of the Champions League final is that it tends to be more exciting than other major finals and, with Saturday’s match involving two of the top four teams on goal average per game in this season’s competition, the goals markets are a good place to look for value.
Over/under 2.5 goals is the obvious starting point. There has been an even split of overs/unders in the 20 years of Champions League finals, although Italian teams have been a drag on the figures and it is worth noting that over 2.5 goals rises to 60 per cent when finals involving Italian sides are excluded.
It is also notable that the average goals per final is 2.55 since Europe’s premier club competition was rebranded as the Champions League. As a comparison, in the same period FA Cup finals have averaged 1.9 and World Cup finals a mere 1.4.
That points towards over 2.5 goals at 1.8, although there are complicating figures. Three of the four meetings between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund this season have had under 2.5 goals, while two of the three previous finals involving clubs from the same country have had unders.
An alternative to over 2.5 goals – at similar odds – is both teams to score at 1.72. Both teams have got on the scoresheet in seven of the 10 finals not involving an Italian side and in three of the four Bayern-Dortmund matches this season, although in only one of the three finals involving clubs from the same country.
At shorter odds, the stats point to the scoring being opened in the first half. Sixteen of the 20 finals in the Champions League era have had at least one first-half goal (three of the four exceptions involved an Italian side), as have three of the four Bayern-Dortmund matches this season. Over 0.5 first-half goals is 1.34.
Trying to pinpoint the exact timeframe is difficult, of course, but the best value according to the stats is the first goal to be scored in the opening 10 minutes at 4.4 or between 31 and 40 minutes at 7.4.
Punters looking for bigger odds might consider over 1.5 first-half goals at 2.46, although it is a risk because it is less well supported by the stats.
Another short-priced option is a goal to be scored in both halves at 1.53. That has occurred in 10 of the past 14 finals, although in only one of the four Bayern-Dortmund matches this season.
A better option on a similar theme might be a tie in the half with most goals market at 3.3. The odds are surprisingly big given that six of the past 12 finals have been a tie, with four of the other six having most goals in the second half, which is favourite on Saturday at 1.82.
With the Bayern-Dortmund head-to-heads pointing to a close match, Dortmund appeal off +1 on the Asian handicap at 1.7 – a bet that would have won twice and been money-back twice in this season’s four meetings.
Bookings markets will be influenced by the recent bad-tempered match between the two sides, which produced seven yellow cards and one red, but that might not be the best guide. There were a total of eight yellow cards in the other three meetings between the sides this season, while there have been only two recent card-heavy Champions League finals.
Under 4.5 cards and 25-45 total bookings points are decent options on the stats, while six to eight bookings points at 3.05 is a reasonable bet, having occurred in six of the past 10 finals.
Recommended Bets
Both teams to score at 1.72
Tie in half with most goals at 3.3
Six to eight bookings points at 3.05
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Only Stefan Kießling (12) scored the first goal of a game more often than Dortmund’s Marco Reus (8) in the Bundesliga this season
In light of confirmation that Mario Gotze will definitely miss the Wembley showdown after failing to shake off his hamstring injury, it will be down to Dortmund’s other attacking stars to shine. One man Jurgen Klopp can certainly rely upon on the big stage to notch the goals, other than Robert Lewandowski, is Reus. Behind his ultra-prolific teammate Lewandowski, the fleet-footed wide man represents BvB’s second top scorer in this year’s Champions League with four goals. In addition to his handy knack of opening the scoring in the Bundesliga, Reus has also drawn first blood three times in this competition.
Recommended Bet: Back Marco Reus to score first @ 13.0
Dortmund striker Robert Lewandowski has scored 22 goals in his last 24 competitive appearances for the club; only Cristiano Ronaldo (12) has scored more Champions League goals than the Polish striker (10) this season
It’s no shock to find Bayern priming the piggy bank for a damn good shaking in order to bring Dortmund’s prize Pole to the Allianz Arena next season. Lewandowski’s virtuoso four-goal demolition of Real Madrid in the semi-final first leg on its own was enough to add another £10 million to an already sizeable price tag. This guy has hit dizzying heights in front of goal this season and it’s no secret that this will almost certainly be his last game in the famous black and yellow, so what better way to mark it than a goal. Bayern know only too well what a threat he is after his five goals against them since the start of last season.
Best Bet: Back Robert Lewandowski to score @ 3.0
Bayern striker Thomas Muller has scored seven goals in his last eight Champions League matches, this despite only attempting 13 shots on target in these games overall
Muller has been the epitome of German efficiency for FC Hollywood this season. The joint-third top scorer in this year’s Champions League has been busy bagging goals with consummate ease for Heynckes’ European juggernauts as the rounds have swung past. Of course, Muller was the man for the biggest stage when he looked to have set Bayern on course for glory with a trademark header at the back post in last year’s final against Chelsea. Bayern are a monster side in stature which accounts for the fact they have scored more headed goals than any other side in the competition with five and it’s that man Muller who has nodded in the last two.
Recommended Bet: Back Thomas Muller to score @ 3.4
Milesey ( Betfair )
FRENCH OPEN 2013
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They have won nine French Open titles between them and the market likes their chances of doing it again in 2013…
Rafael Nadal is odds-on to win this year’s French Open, which starts on Sunday in Paris.
With world no.1 Novak Djokovic a short price at 3.45 it seems that Betfair customers can’t see beyond the two market leaders in the Roland Garros betting.
Their nearest rival is 2009 champion Roger Federer at 20.0 and just three other men trade below 100.0 – David Ferrer (36.0), Tomas Berdych (75.0) and Jo Wilfried Tsonga (95.0).
The women’s tournament also boasts a hot favourite but the competition goes beyond one player. Two-time champion Serena Williams is the jolly at 2.24 but Maria Sharapova (5.7), 2013 Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka (8.6) and Li Na (15.0) all have a fighting chance according to the odds while you wouldn’t discount Sara Errani (22.0) or Sam Stosur (29.0).
It’s little surprise to see Nadal trading so short in the betting. Seven times a Roland Garros champion since first taking the French Open title in 2005, Nadal has been in imperious form after returning from injury to Tour action in February winning 36 of 38 matches. Notably perhaps, though, one of those defeats was at the hands of Djokovic in Monte Carlo.
However, the Serbian has only once made the final at Roland Garros, losing in four sets to Nadal in 2012, and the Spaniard has won 19 of the 34 games played between the two.
While he looks like the original ‘sure thing’ there is a risk to backing Nadal at odds-on of course. The 26-year-old has suffered with a persistent knee injury in recent years and must beat seven players to win the second grand slam of the year. Yes, he will destroy most of those but it’s a gruelling task for any athlete.
If you are convinced by the favourites a Nadal/Williams winning double can be backed at 3.85 while Djokovic/Williams is a 7.4 shot
Milesey
MILESEY’S BEST BETS FOR THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL
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CORRECT SCORE 90 MINS 1-1 @ 8.8 BETFAIR
DRAW 90 MINS @ 4.1 BETFAIR
MARCO REUS FIRST GOALSCORER @ 14.0 BETFAIR
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.76 BETFAIR
BORUSSIA DORTMUND IN EXTRA TIME @ 18/1 BET365
BORUSSIA DORTMUND TO LIFT THE TROPHY @ 3.35 BETFAIR
Milesey
Hmm I see where your coming from with Koronas away form.. But they beat Piast 4-0 in the reverse fixture..
CLUB TIJUANA Vs ATLETICO MINEIRO
One of the most fascinating ties of the quarter finals is Club Tijuana against Atletico Mineiro. Xolos were only formed in 2007 but have already earned their place amongst the best in Mexico. Atletico are one of the best sides in Brazil at the moment and are the tournament favourites.
Club Tijuana are a very young club in Mexico but have all the right infrastructure to go far. They have a single league Mexico Apertura victory from 2012 to their name. Tijuana have not had a good Clausera, indeed they finished 10th of 18 teams with 6 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats. Struggling away from home for the majority of the closing season.Tijuana have been a revelation in this year’s Copa Libertadores however. With a record of 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, they remain undefeated at home so far and indeed have yet to concede a goal despite facing up to the likes of Corinthians, Palmeiras and Millionares. Key men of Xolos are attacking midfielder Fernando Arce, winger Fidel Martinez and defensive mainstay Javier Gandolfini. Missing this game with a suspension is Pablo Aguilar.
Atletico Mineiro have experienced great success in the local state Minas Gerais championship (winning 42 titles) but have only managed the 1 win in Brazil Serie A. Mineiro have not had the best of years until recently. Finishing 2nd in 1999 was their only decent finish until last year. In 2012 with a fine squad assembled they challenged for the title for most of the long season. Fluminense prevailed in the end but Mineiro more than matched them. Mineiro in this seasons Minas Gerais state championsip have had a good warm up. In a weak regional section were only eternal rivals Cruzeiro challenges them they finished at champions again with an overall record of 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats. Including in this run was a sequence of 8 consecutive home wins. In Copa Libertadores this season Atletico Mineiro without a doubt have been the most impressive side so far. With 7 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat they have breezed through the tournament scoring 22 and conceding 11. They have a very dangerous squad with Ronaldinho turning back the clock and totally dominating games. Accompanied by tournament top scorer Jo and assisted by crack striker Diego Tardelli and backed up with the exciting midfielder Bernard. Mineiro will be missing full back Richarlyson is missing but back up defender Julio Cesar is for me the better player.
CLUB TIJUANA – ATLETICO MINEIRO: BETTING TIPS
A huge game for both sides and another game that I feel could be a cracking tie. I cannot look past Atletico Mineiro though. You have to respect Xolos home form though and they have yet to concede in this years tournament but they are facing the entertainers in Mineiro. Two inform sides go head to head, I am taking Atletico Mineiro (2.00 bet365) on the Draw No Bet market as insurance. Its a very difficult game to call but I think facing up to the Brazilian side will be too much for Club Tijuana who have faced tough games this season to Corinthians particularly but that side does not have the same attacking menace as Mineiro. Ronaldinho is almost at his irresistible best and is totally dominating games at the moment.
Milesey
Just seen this Milesey, my research told me draw no bet too ;))
I knew The Piast game looked dodgy glad I stayed away! ;)
MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY – SATURDAY 25TH MAY 2013
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Lechia Gdansk vs GKS Belchatow
Saturday 12:30
With three fixtures remaining, all eyes are on the top and the bottom of the Ekstraklasa standings. With the visitors travelling to Gdansk on the brink of relegation, coach Kamil Kieres knows it’s now or never if his Belchatow boys are going to be playing top flight football in Poland next year.
This year’s Polish Ekstraklasa has been dominated by off-the-field drama more than the football itself. With the Polish FA deeming certain sides ineligible for European places next season due to financial reasons, the hosts Lechia Gdansk currently find themselves in a Europa League spot sitting in eighth place.
With pressure coming from the challenge of Korona Kielce and Zaglebie Lubin just a point behind, a win on Saturday could prove invaluable in this race between the three for that all important European spot.
Managing one win in nine outings, the white and green hosts have had a torrid time in recent weeks. Scoring goals hasn’t been the problem; however conceding freely at the wrong end has seen them concede 40 goals throughout the campaign, the fourth highest in the entire league.
Belchatow are in trouble at the foot of the table. Sitting in the second relegation spot on 26 points, a loss this weekend could see their fate sealed and relegation assured – however once again the Polish FA could come to the rescue.
With the announcement being made that Polonia Warsaw won’t be receiving an Ekstralasa licence next season, one of the dreaded relegation spots will be made up by them if their appeal isn’t accepted come May 28th… giving the side finishing in 15th spot that all important ‘get out of jail’ card at no cost.
With the decision coming next week, the visitors won’t want to rely on this outcome going in their favour, so expect a determined side to fly out of the blocks heavily reliant on goals coming from midfield with a lacklustre strike force lacking goal-power.
Unbelievably with four wins on the spin, the 15th placed stragglers are the leagues form team, and will be looking to claim the scalp of Lechia at the intimidating PGE Arena Gdansk.
Recommended Bet:
Back the draw @ 3.3
Back 2-2 @ 15.5
Milesey
BUMPER – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PREVIEW
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TEAM IN FOCUS – BAYERN MUNICH
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Goalkeeper | Manuel Neuer
After some games, Manuel Neuer claims, he doesn’t even have to take a shower, so good is Bayern’s defence that there’s no need to get dirty making saves. When called upon, though, he is one of the best goalkeepers in the world. Also it bears remembering that he stepped up and scored a penalty in the last Champions League final, which Bayern lost and heartbreakingly so at home to Chelsea.
Back Manuel Neuer to keep a clean sheet at 2.86
Left-back | David Alaba
Scorer of the fifth fastest goal in Champions League history when his shot took an indecipherable deflection leaving Gianluigi Buffon no chance after just 26 seconds of Bayern’s quarter-final first leg against Juventus, David Alaba, ‘the young grasshopper’, has been taken under the wing of Frank Ribéry with whom he has developed a good understanding on the left flank. A full-back of great promise.
To Score 6.4
Centre-back | Dante
Described as a Schnäppen-Verteidiger or bargain defender when Bayern triggered the €4.7m release clause in his contract with Borussia Mönchegladbach last summer, Dante didn’t get the same billing as fellow summer signings Javi Martinez and Mario Mandzukic. Together with them, this elegant and assured Brazil international, admittedly a later developer at 29, has added a layer of quality which Bayern lacked last year.
To Score 13.5
Centre-back | Jérôme Boateng
Formerly of Manchester City just like his back-up Daniel van Buyten, the 24-year-old Germany international is now in his second Champions League final after leaving the Etihad where a knee injury wrecked his chances. Not that there’s any regrets. Highly regarded for his versatility Boateng, brother of AC Milan’s Kevin-Prince, can play across the back four and even in defensive midfield.
To Score 18
Right-back | Philipp Lahm
Back in 2009, Philipp Lahm gave a scathing interview to Süddeutsche Zeitung attacking the club’s culture of short-termism, its transfer policy and lack of a playing philosophy. Bayern, one assumes, took note of their captain’s words. They’ve now reached their third Champions League final in the four years since then and are held up as a model club. In addition to being the best right-back in the world, Lahm is consummate leader and winner.
To Score 18
Central Midfield | Javi Martinez
A midfield colossus with imperious poise, Javi Martinez is one of those players who takes one stride for every two taken by his opponent. Ubiquitous in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie against Arsenal, the decision made to pay Athletic Bilbao an eyebrow-raising €40m for him last summer was worthwhile not because he’s worth exactly that – Uli Hoeness admitted he isn’t – but because he’s a missing piece of a puzzle for which paying a premium in order to complete it was totally justifiable.
To Score 11
Central Midfield | Bastian Schweinsteiger
Prior to Bayern’s semi-final against Barcelona, coach Jupp Heynckes paid Schweinsteiger the following compliment: “He is the heart of the team, a midfielder with outstanding tactical ability. He always makes the right decisions. He is on a par with Iniesta and Xavi.” That’s all you need to know really except that what Schweinsteiger may lack in comparison with them, he certainly makes up for in physical stature.
To Score 6.4
Attacking Midfield Left | Arjen Robben
Were it not for Toni Kroos’ injury against Juventus in the quarter-finals, it’s unlikely Arjen Robben would be starting. He has, it must be said, been exceptional since he came on for him that night, scoring in both legs of the semi with Barcelona. The signing of Götze and return of Kroos may spell the end for him at the Allianz Arena. This could be his last hurrah in a Bayern shirt and redemption for his penalty miss in extra-time of last year’s final.
To Score 3.65
Attacking Midfield Centre | Thomas Müller
A socks-around-the-ankles footballer, Thomas Müller has been described as a Raumdeuter, the German for Space Investigator. He drifts, he lurks and eventually finds an opening. This is his talent. Being in the right place at the right time. There’s no stat for that. You’ve either got it or you haven’t. And Müller most definitely has it.
To Score 3.05
Attacking Midfield Right | Frank Ribéry
On the losing side in World Cup and Champions League finals, Franck Ribéry has been there or thereabouts in the last seven years. That’s also true of him as a player. Ribéry has straddled the line between very good and great throughout his career, threatening to break into the latter category for Bayern but not for France.
To Score 4.6
Striker | Mario Mandzukic
A real surprise. Signed from Wolfsburg for €14m as cover for Mario Gomez who suffered an ankle injury at the beginning of August, he has made the position his own on account of his goalscoring ability, sure, but above all his willingness to sacrifice himself and act as a first defender often pressing opponents and retreating back into midfield to help his teammates win the ball back.
To Score 2.6
Coach | Jupp Heynckes
Like in 1998 when he won the Champions League with Real Madrid only to lose his job, Jupp Heynckes will be pensioned off regardless of whether Bayern lift the trophy on Saturday night to make way for Pep Guardiola. It feels harsh considering this promises to be the club’s most successful ever season. The one consolation is that if Bayern do complete the treble a place in posterity awaits Heynckes and he can retire in the knowledge that he has made it difficult if not impossible for Pep to eclipse his achievements.
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TEAM IN FOCUS – BORUSSIA DORTMUND
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Goalkeeper | Roman Weidenfeller
Seven years ago, captain Roman Weidenfeller, midfielder Sebastian Kehl and director of sport Michael Zorc were members of the Dortmund team that risked relegation from the Bundesliga. They all hugged on reaching the Champions League Final, something his girlfriend predicted when the season started. “At the time I just laughed, but now I must say she was absolutely right.”
Back Roman Weidenfeller to keep a clean sheet at 6.2
Left-back | Marcel Schmelzer
When Zorc brought Marcel Schmelzer to Jürgen Klopp’s attention, the Dortmund coach looked at the academy graduate and said: “Come on, he’s just a kid.” Zorc replied: “He can always play.” That he can. Only Weidenfeller and Robert Lewandowski have made more appearances than Schmelzer this season. The buzzing left-back scored the winner at home against Real Madrid in the group stages too.
To Score 19.5
Centre-back | Mats Hummels
Formerly of Bayern Munich’s academy, Mats Hummels has become one of the most sought-after and handsome centre-backs in Europe. Excellent at playing accurate long diagonals or bringing the ball out and making raids into midfield, he gives Dortmund’s build-up play an unpredictable element. Hummels does have an error in him, though, and is a slight injury doubt for the final with a sprained ankle.
To Score 9.8
Centre-back | Neven Subotic
When Dortmund won the first of their back-to-back Bundesliga titles in 2011, Subotic went on a road trip around Europe with a couple of mates in a VW camper van. A former US youth international who then committed to Serbia, after the quarter-finals he said: “Our story this season has been like a Hollywood movie, I hope it has a Hollywood ending.”
To Score 16.5
Right-back | Łukasz Piszczek
The least heralded of Dortmund’s Polish contingent, Lukasz Piszczek has emerged as one of the Bundesliga’s best right-backs since coach Jürgen Klopp picked him up from relegated Hertha in 2010. Great at surging forward and whipping in crosses from his flank, he has been linked with Arsenal as an upgrade on the declining Bacary Sagna.
To Score 16.5
Central midfield | Ilkay Gündoğan
Signed as the replacement for Nuri Sahin after he left for Real Madrid, Gündoğan struggled at first but by the time his predecessor returned in the spring this year, he’d made the position his own. Hailed as “Dortmund’s Xavi” by Kicker, Gündoğan is the tempo-setting metronome in the middle of the park.
To Score 7.8
Central midfielder | Sven Bender
The Dortmund half of the Bender twins – brother Lars plays for Bayer Leverkusen – if this were a team of cyclists rather than footballers, Sven would be the domestique, the gregario, the water carrier who does a lot of the heavy going, the hard-running. Often clocking more than 12km a game, few cover more ground than him.
To Score 17.5
Attacking Midfielder Left | Kevin Großkreutz
Unlike Mario Götze, the ‘traitor’ of the piece for whom he is expected to stand-in after injury ruled him out of the final against future club Bayern Munich, there’s no doubting where Kevin Großkreutz’s loyalties lie. A ‘Dortmund lad’, he’d always travel and support the club, standing in the Yellow Wall even when playing for Rott Weiss Ahlen.
To Score 8.4
Attacking Midfield Centre | Marco Reus
As a nickname ‘Rolls Reus’ is a great riff on Marco’s surname, but as a description of his playing style it couldn’t be further from the truth. Rolls Royces are big and take a while to get going. Reus, on the other hand, is slight, lightning quick and nimble too. His backheel assist for Robert Lewandowski against Malaga was something else.
To Score 3.95
Attacking Midfielder Right | Jakub Błaszczykowski
Captain of Poland, Kuba looks older than his 27 years which is perhaps understandable considering what he went through as a kid. Tenacious, he brings the heat, the grit and determination to a baby-faced front four. A modern winger, he’ll get past you but you also won’t be able get past him. He isn’t one for shirking his defensive responsibilities and is arguably as good a right-back as Piszczek.
To Score 5.0
Striker | Robert Lewandowski
The first player to score four in a semi-final or later since Ferenc Puskas in the 1960 final between Real Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt, newspapers were full of stories the day after of how everyone from Tottenham and Blackburn to Genoa had almost signed Robert Lewandowski before he went to Dortmund in 2010. Expected to follow Götze to Bayern this summer, he’s established himself as one of the best centre-forwards in Europe.
To Score 2.78
Coach | Jürgen Klopp
Who wouldn’t want to play for Jürgen Klopp? True, it’s understandable that Götze and Lewandowski find Bayern and the chance to work under Pep Guardiola appealing. “I can’t make myself 15cm shorter or start speaking Spanish,” Klopp says. What he can do though is make you a great footballer, play exciting stuff and have a lot of fun while you’re doing it. The guy’s a hero.
FRENCH OPEN 2013 – TENNIS
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The French Open 2013 begins in Paris on Sunday, the best alternatives to the market leaders………………
The culmination of the clay swing, the 2013 French Open at Roland Garros begins this weekend and only one of Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal will be in the men’s final this year.
Pretty much the only question at Friday’s draw ceremony was whether the two favourites would be drawn in the same half and indeed they were, which has seen Djokovic ease slightly to around 3.8 in the outright market, while a kinder draw for Roger Federer has seen the Swiss come in from 20.0 to 16.0.
Dissecting the draw then, starting at the top and Djokovic has a first round draw that will almost certainly have deeper consequences for his opponent, as David Goffin won’t be defending his round four from last year and after a poor 12 months his ranking will slip.
The match that most neutrals will be looking for to happen in that section is in round three where Djokovic may face Grigor Dimitrov again in what could be a classic and pretty much rules out any slim hopes that Dimitrov had this fortnight. Even if he wins it, which is unlikely, he’ll be spent for the rest of the tournament.
Looking beyond that the erratic duo Alex Dolgopolov and Philipp Kohlschreiber are potential last 16 opponents and the adjacent section looks wide open, with Tommy Haas looking to have a fine chance of a quarter final spot and a decent back-to-lay choice at 600.0.
Haas is in a section with the hopelessly out of form Janko Tipsarevic and the likes of John Isner, Mikhail Youzhny and Fernando Verdasco, which are certainly winnable matches for the veteran German.
The next section is Rafa’s and he opens against hit and miss German Daniel Brands and nothing much of any real likelihood of testing Nadal, such as the likes of Fabio Fognini, Kei Nishikori and Benoit Paire waiting down the line.
Rafa’s quarter final opponent looks likely to be one of Stan Wawrinka or Richard Gasquet, with other possibles including Jerzy Janowicz, Florian Mayer, Nikolay Davydenko or Albert Ramos.
Wawrinka could have been a dark horse this fortnight, but he’s been injured and drawing Nadal pretty much counts him out, as it does for Gasquet. I can’t see either stopping Rafa unless injury strikes the Spaniard and a Nadal/Djokovic semi final looks likely.
But the bottom half of the draw looks open and although Tomas Berdych has a tough opening two rounds against the back-to-form Gael Monfils and the dangerous Ernests Gulbis he has a shot at 70.0. The Berdman would then have to get past probably Tommy Robredo and Nico Almagro before a potential quarter final with David Ferrer, who will be pleased with his draw.
Ferrer has Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson, Albert Montanes, Marcel Granollers and Feli Lopez in his section and he couldn’t have wished for better. The value there might be to side with Anderson at a big price to win the section, as the big South African has been light years better this season on the dirt and he’d be a good price as an alternative to Ferrer, who has one semi final and two last eight finishes in 10 years of coming to Roland Garros.
Finally, Federer’s section in which he starts with a couple of qualifiers and then perhaps the out of touch Julien Benneteau followed by Gilles Simon, who Federer took apart in Rome and a quarter final with maybe Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or possibly one of Marin Cilic, Juan Monaco, Radek Stepanek and Jeremy Chardy.
In short it’s a good section for the Swiss and a good one for value hunters, as Federer hasn’t been in good form of late and if you’re after a big priced runner then Berdych at around 70.0, Monfils at 500.0, Gulbis at 130.0 or Anderson at 1000.0 could fit the bill. Or if you’re a Federer fan he has a more than decent shot of another final at 16.0.
If you believe Djokovic to be vulnerable at the moment then Haas to win that section looks a solid choice or a back-to-lay at around 600.0.
With the top two in the betting drawn to face each other in the last four there are possibilities elsewhere at some fancy prices.
Recommended Bets (all back-to-lay)
Back Haas at 600.0
Back Anderson at 1000.0
Back Berdych at 70.0 or Gulbis at 130.0
Milesey