HIBS are favourites to win the Premiership play-off final with Hamilton simply because they are the higher-ranked team – but they haven't been performing like one.
Much has been written on this site about Hibs' plight this season and plenty of us have made money from their losses.
Terry Butcher's men won just one in 19 games to slump into second bottom in the table and would have been below city rivals Hearts but for their 15-point deduction.
They have provided no goal threat, lacked confidence and conceded soft goals and that all adds up to relegation so to KO Accies they’ll have to buck the trend.
Picking a winner isn’t as easy as the bookies think. Hibs are4-7favourites with William Hill to stay up with Accies 5-4 but it could go to the wire.
I can't take Hibs at that price but the big question is: How do Hamilton stack up to sides such as Ross County, Partick Thistle and Kilmarnock? I don't think the Championship runners-up are as good and that will give the Easter Road men a glimmer of hope.
I’d be on Hamilton tonight if it weren’t for the fact they’ve just fought out two tough ties with Falkirk. The play-offs are weighed in favour of the top-flight team and Hibs should be fresher – but will they be better?
First legs are usually cagey and I can see this ending all square … and I won’t rule out a 0-0. No scorer pays 8-1 at Coral.
It could be a game for Jason Scotland’s experience and the Accies ace is 13-5 (bet365) to net. If Hibs are going to score it's likely to come from comeback striker Paul Heffernan who has been missed. He is 12-5 at bet365 to hit the target.
William Hill offer 15-4 for a red card in the match and that must have a chance. It could be fiery with Terry Butcher saying he's put Accies boasts on the dressing-room wall and there are players on both sides who waon't hold back.
Under 1.5 goals
(2-1, McBookie, William Hill)
Hibs draw no bet
(11-10, McBookie, BetVictor)
Red card in match
(15-4, William Hill)