HIBS are favourites to win the Premiership play-off final with Hamilton simply because they are the higher-ranked team – but they haven't been performing like one.
Much has been written on this site about Hibs' plight this season and plenty of us have made money from their losses.
Terry Butcher's men won just one in 19 games to slump into second bottom in the table and would have been below city rivals Hearts but for their 15-point deduction.
They have provided no goal threat, lacked confidence and conceded soft goals and that all adds up to relegation so to KO Accies they’ll have to buck the trend.
Picking a winner isn’t as easy as the bookies think. Hibs are4-7favourites with William Hill to stay up with Accies 5-4 but it could go to the wire.
I can't take Hibs at that price but the big question is: How do Hamilton stack up to sides such as Ross County, Partick Thistle and Kilmarnock? I don't think the Championship runners-up are as good and that will give the Easter Road men a glimmer of hope.
I’d be on Hamilton tonight if it weren’t for the fact they’ve just fought out two tough ties with Falkirk. The play-offs are weighed in favour of the top-flight team and Hibs should be fresher – but will they be better?
First legs are usually cagey and I can see this ending all square … and I won’t rule out a 0-0. No scorer pays 8-1 at Coral.
If it’s as tight and tense as expected backing under 2.5 goals at 13-20 with Ladbrokes is on while under 1.5 goals is 2-1 at William Hill and McBookie. And yes an early goal could make me look silly.
Hamilton are 8-5 at bet365 and Paddy Power to win tonight with Hibs 19-10 at McBookie and William Hill while the draw returns 23-10 at McBookie.
It could be a game for Jason Scotland’s experience and the Accies ace is 13-5 (bet365) to net. If Hibs are going to score it's likely to come from comeback striker Paul Heffernan who has been missed. He is 12-5 at bet365 to hit the target.
William Hill offer 15-4 for a red card in the match and that must have a chance. It could be fiery with Terry Butcher saying he's put Accies boasts on the dressing-room wall and there are players on both sides who waon't hold back.
Recommended Bets
Under 1.5 goals
(2-1, McBookie, William Hill)
Hibs draw no bet
(11-10, McBookie, BetVictor)
Red card in match
(15-4, William Hill)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
glad you mentioned jason scotland , mr f, as he has a score to settle with hibs , it was the majority of the panel that had hibs connections that refused him a work permit saying he wasnt good enough !!!
he,ll be trying his damndest to score
I don’t buy into this Hibs will be fresher.Games like this cant come quick enough and one thing Hamilton will be match fit.There record of 12 out 18 home wins is reasonable no more.Can see this being a tight affair btts [no] for me.
Hamilton to win 8/5 Paddy Power. Worth remembering Partick came out of the Championship last season and held their own in the Premiership. I know enough about Hibs and how their supporters feel, they are dire and are there for the taking.
Any value about today??Need to claw a few £££ back from yesterday lol
Will be on those Mr F, it will be tough through their and a tight game but with a few players back it could well go in hibs favour. Also for some interst ex hibee Antonine Curier will be up,front for Hamilton and ex players have a nack of scoring against hibs.
I like ur under 1.5 Mr F but think il go a bit safer under 2 goal line is 2.10
Good write up Mr F but I think Hibs are so poor an odds of 8/5 are to big for a Hamilton team that were just a bit nervy playing Falkirk as they would have been devastated not to get the chance to play Hibs,as they think they fully deserve it after just missing out on automatic premotion. So says the lad I know and who scored in the first leg against Falkirk Daz MacKinnon. He’s said “Now we all just cant wait to get stuck into Hibs and prove were worthy of taking there place from them in the premier league as were more than good enough” Of course he would tell me that but the lads confident enough and talking to him now he reckons the players they have now are the best he’s ever played with by far and says “there going to make sure all this season’s hard work hasnt been for f@#k all and after watching Hibs many times it be a disaster not to take advantage of this opportunity and give them it stinkin” he’s a good player with some engine and as I say is usually confident but always honest and I really hope he’s right! I look at the players in both lineups and Hamilton have a great mixture of players wether it be for a bit of magic or to play a good passing game…Hibs install no confidence in me at all. Cmon the Accies!
Twice?? :P
I think hibs will win it. I also think it will come down to experienced chairmen and their financial capabilitys. Hamilton are i believe to be on a very sound financial footing. To go up and stay up in the spl they would have to invest in new players and could they survive in the spl i would doubt it.
They then have full house games against hearts and rangers whilst continuing on the same budget as before which would give them better reward than a season trying to stay in the spl.
Hibs on the other hand cant afford to go down simply because they wouldnt get out at the first time of asking.
I of course maybe miles off the mark but hibs to me is the safer bet.
Good luck to both teams though should be a good game.
Think I’ll be having 0-0 at 8’s . Will have to go to the bookies to put it on which i don’t mind as it means calling at the pub tonight and hopefully tomorrow to collect. :-)
Jimmybeee, a lot of what you say is spot on especially Hibs can’t afford to go down, however, they decided when sitting mid table to sack Pat Fenlon and bring in Butcher and Malpas. That decision has been catastrophic for them and the result is that Butcher cannot produce a winning team and has little to no respect from his squad. I see no reason why a season in the Premiership wouldn’t prove profitable for Hamilton mate.
Jimmybee that’s not quite the situation at Hamilton,they have good youth set up and all the facilities in place too. Players like Antoine Courier and Scotland are on decent amounts but nothing I dont think they can’t handle if going up. I agree with Raalj as to the SPL being fine without Hibs. I maybe a touch biased but I’m really trying to think with my head only here and its saying Cmon the Accies!
Ps it would definitely kill Hibs financialy and I agree they wouldn’t get back up at the first attempt Jimmybee.
Looking at the stats for Hibs is not inspiring!
Still, stats are useful because it points you to a team mentality. I dont mind a gamble on this.
It is far harder for a team that are losing to start winning than it is for a team winning to start losing. Must win games are tough if you are struggling to win, and winning games builds confidence. Without confidence every game becomes a massive struggle. if you are used to winning, then you are already thinking about the win(auto-suggestion in motion)
Hibs cannot score;
-Hibs have not won away since december,
-not scored away since mid march
-and all season they have scored a massive 11 goals away from home.
-Since the start of the year they have scored 4 goals away from home, 2 of which are against the worst defences in the league.
Hamilton are on the other side.
Failed only twice to score at home this season
averaging over 2 goals a game at home(if we take 8 away from that morton game)
only six clean sheets though. (only one clean sheet this year at home)
Only lost once this year at home.
most inform team at home over the last 6 games.
Accept the difference between leagues considering the quality each team plays against, but I quite fancy a home win for Hamilton. Alloa(the worst at scoring in Div1) scored against Hamilton at home so I see no reason why Hibs cant score, but perhaps that winning mindset is enough for Hamilton to pip it at home.
Home win for me, but I actually think both will score(crazy fool)
Accepting my degree of ignorance for both teams to be measured with my comments
Mr F, maybe looking at the stats wrong but you have said “surprisingly Hibs have kept clean sheets in their last three away games”
They have lost their last three away games?
Got Hamilton to qualify @ 9/4 on Monday with Marathonbet. Price dropped to 27/20 as of now, so that was massive value, let’s just hope they deliver :)
Is the game on the telly?
jimmybee, it’s on Sky or BT – can’t remember which. One leg on each channel I think.
Backed under 1.5 .cnt bear to watch
Sky sports 1 Jimmybeee live an in HD ;) al need to venture out for it. Few juices and a packet o crisps it will be. Took MacKinnon 3-1 @135/1 :P 50p n couple of other cheeky ones. Dont need much more intrest as really looking forward to it now. Am off….Cmon Hamilton Recoba needs a new pair of everything ;)
butcher trying to say accies are favs , hes feeling pressure , can only lead to nerves, mistakes and
accies win
Rowen that looks a great price as Hibs are possibly worse at Easter Road. Am really hanging myself out for a roasting with these posts. lol :)
yes mr f butchers leg on sky sports 1 his other on sky sports 2 ,,:)
hes crapping himself
looks very ashen and worried getting interviewed
I was starting a process of angling to come up for the second leg, but Mrs UHT put her foot down. She said since Hibs were going to lose, it would be a waste of money, and I’d only be more miserable if i was there in person. (The only thing she knows about football is Hibs are s***e.) I mean, in the cold light of day, she’s right. It’s one of the reasons i never bet on Hibs – them not exactly being great, and only really being capable of making me feel various shades of miserable. However… I like the fact that everybody’s discussing the play-off games as if they’ve already been played and Hibs are already down. True, if there’s one team you can rely on when everybody says they’ll get beat to actually go out there and take a tonking, it’s the cabbage. But… i think they weren’t so far off against Killie – they were by no means great, but they were up for it – and had no cutting edge, but were still unlucky. Meanwhile, football’s unfair. Hamilton have had to play a two leg qualifier having finished second in the league, and now, only three days later, have to play another two leg tie to get what most of us would think was justifiably theirs already. I see a lot of pressure on the Accies to get over the line. Whereas the Hibees know everybody thinks they’re already down – and maybe – MAYBE – they’ll suddenly remember that actually, they’re not quite as bad as they’ve allowed themselves to become, and the players have a chance to show they possess pride, commitment and ability (to other clubs who might come in for them). Wishful thinking, perhaps, but hey… I never bet on correct scores and i never bet on Hibs. But tonight, Matthew, I’m on the away 2-0.
Clean sheet plz hibs
Easy win for me had hibs to win to nil reckon it will be closer in home tie going big on hibs both to score in return leg hibs will stay in top flight and finish top 4 next season
Cracking tip on Hibs draw no bet Mr F…no great lover of Hibs but could not believe the price considering they had rested for 10 days and Hamilton had played 2 intense games against Falkirk in 5 days!
Good call The UHT…feel sorry for my mate but don’t think they be blaming fatigue for the result.