FENERBAHCE take a narrow 1-0 lead to Portugal for their Europa League semi-final second leg and while Benfica have an excellent home record the Turkish side can still progress.
The defeat last week was Benfica's first inside of 90 minutes since their Champions League defeat to Spartak Moscow back in October. They were thoroughly outplayed in Turkey and in truth should be even further behind as Cristian missed a penalty for Fenerbahce and both Moussa Sow and Dirk Kuyt hit the woodwork.
Jorge Jesus' side do have a somewhat formidable record at Estádio da Luz though – 17 wins and two draws from their last 19 matches there – with their sole defeat this season coming against Barcelona. Oscar Cardozo is still their main man but has netted just once in his last half dozen and will have to be at the top of his game to get any joy from the Fener defence.
Fenerbahce have been in superb form in this competition and they've already beaten the likes of Lazio and Marseille en route to the semis. They don't score many goals but don't concede many either and that was key in the first leg as they denied the Portuguese an away goal.
Aykut Kocaman's men have kept four clean sheets in their last five away games in the Europa League, failing to score just once themselves. If they can get an away goal tonight then Benfica are going to need three to make the Final in Amsterdam and I just can't see that happening.
Moussa Sow and Dirk Kuyt have the quality to cause plenty of problems for the Benfica defence they should be favourites to go through. That's why, with Benfica trading as low as 1.89 to qualify I have to make them my lay of the day.
Lay Benfica to qualify v Fenerbahce @ 1.89