IF games were won on stats they'd hand Gus Poyet the Capital One Cup before Sunday's Wembley showpiece.
Sunderland have lost just one in five meetings with Man City – edging three of them 1-0 – according to the oddschecker app.
But as we know there are damned lies and statistics … and on this occasion I'm ignoring what's gone before.
I'm confident about City for three reasons – Sergio Aguero's likely return, a desperation to wipe out the memory of last season's FA Cup Final loss to Wigan and simply because they are the better side.
Sunderland of course beat City 1-0 in the Premier League at the Stadium of Light and battled past Man Utd on penalties to reach the Final so like Wigan they can't be dismissed lightly.
City haven't been firing on all cylinders but that's been down to Aguero's absence. As boss Manuel Pellegrini says he's one of the best players in the world and any team would miss the Argentine goal-getter.
A player to consider to score is Yaya Toure, a big-game veteran who hit last week's winner against Stoke. He is 7-4 at Betred to net at anytime. If Aguero doesn't start take Toure at 6-1 with bet365 to break the deadlock.
City are of course short at 3-10 (general) to win in 90 minutes and 1-6 (Skybet) to lift the Cup.
Sunderland are 9-1 (general) to win the match and 9-2 at bet365 and Ladbrokes to get their hands on the trophy – but they'd swap it for staying up and don't want to suffer the fate of Wigan or even Alex McLeish's Birmingham a couple of years ago.
Sunderland were badly beaten up 4-1 by Arsenal in the capital last weekend and although history suggests they'll make it tough City I'm backing the Blues.
Pellegrini's side wouldn't be here if they weren't interested in landing the domestic treble and if Aguero starts they could cover the -1 handicap. That pays 4-5 at Stan James.
A 1-0 or 2-0 City win seem the most likely scorelines so consider under 2.5 goals at 6-4 with William Hill.
So it's a blue do for me – but if Aguero isn't playing I'll more cautious.