IF games were won on stats they'd hand Gus Poyet the Capital One Cup before Sunday's Wembley showpiece.
Sunderland have lost just one in five meetings with Man City – edging three of them 1-0 – according to the oddschecker app.
But as we know there are damned lies and statistics … and on this occasion I'm ignoring what's gone before.
I'm confident about City for three reasons – Sergio Aguero's likely return, a desperation to wipe out the memory of last season's FA Cup Final loss to Wigan and simply because they are the better side.
Sunderland of course beat City 1-0 in the Premier League at the Stadium of Light and battled past Man Utd on penalties to reach the Final so like Wigan they can't be dismissed lightly.
City haven't been firing on all cylinders but that's been down to Aguero's absence. As boss Manuel Pellegrini says he's one of the best players in the world and any team would miss the Argentine goal-getter.
Alvaro Negredo and Edin Dzeko have been carrying knocks so if Aguero is close to 100 per cent fitness he'll start – and if he does I'll be on him to score first at 3-1 with Betfred and bet365.
A player to consider to score is Yaya Toure, a big-game veteran who hit last week's winner against Stoke. He is 7-4 at Betred to net at anytime. If Aguero doesn't start take Toure at 6-1 with bet365 to break the deadlock.
City are of course short at 3-10 (general) to win in 90 minutes and 1-6 (Skybet) to lift the Cup.
Sunderland are 9-1 (general) to win the match and 9-2 at bet365 and Ladbrokes to get their hands on the trophy – but they'd swap it for staying up and don't want to suffer the fate of Wigan or even Alex McLeish's Birmingham a couple of years ago.
Sunderland were badly beaten up 4-1 by Arsenal in the capital last weekend and although history suggests they'll make it tough City I'm backing the Blues.
Pellegrini's side wouldn't be here if they weren't interested in landing the domestic treble and if Aguero starts they could cover the -1 handicap. That pays 4-5 at Stan James.
A 1-0 or 2-0 City win seem the most likely scorelines so consider under 2.5 goals at 6-4 with William Hill.
Another bet I like the look of is City to win to nil at 11-8 with Betfred and BetVictor.
So it's a blue do for me – but if Aguero isn't playing I'll more cautious.
Recommended Bets
Aguero to score first
(3-1, Betfred, bet365)
Man City to win to nil
(11-8, BetVictor, Betfred)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
hello. Hi Mr F. Thank you for you know what. Got to say if Sergio is back I can see him grabbing a couple of goals. But this is a cup final and anything can happen.
Do you think the 3/10 price is fair. I’m not so sure.
To be honest I can’t see much value on many Man City based bets here.
As I said earlier in the week, I still think given Man City 0-1 Wigan and Sunderland’s 4 1-0 wins in a row vs Man City at home, it’d be madness not to have a very small stake on 1-0 to Sunderland – can still get 30/1.
adam johnson wins this, against his old club :)
maybe…………………
Carling Cup final anytime scorer’s, I’m taking one from each side and if they play I will be on:
*NASRI 3/1 Tote & Betfred (Lost two cup finals and will be desperate to win this, and with doubts over Negredo & Dzeko and Aguero odds a bit short coming back from a injury, Nasri is who I want to be with)
*JOHNSON 6/1 Ladbrokes & Coral (Facing his former club and could be up against Demichelis, who is likely to play instead of Lescott on the left side of defence, Johnson finding his form and is making a late run to get into the world cup squad with 6 goals this year)
*Check team news
Good luck if your having a bet
I think sunderland are good for a goal here as they have scored in there last 5 away games
Sunderland to lift cup 4/1
Sunderland s on pens 22/1
1-0 SUNDERLAND ADAM JOHNSON TO SCORE 200/1
Am on that !
Yesterday I was was looking for big odds and got no where near. Today I’m simply going for city -1 and -2
But nap bet would be more goals in 2nd half. At evens that is normally how finals go. Tight 1st half. And this season city bang them in 2nd half
Morning-Anyone on my 6 team over accy @ 14/1, hinging on a Stevie Getin last minute pen. for Liverpool….Cheers.
Think city win 3 or 4-1
Any 1 doing correct score or fgs paddy power shop giving cash back on any bet on man city game if negredo scores first can’t argue with that dzeko and kompany for me
I can’t believe how anyone wouldn’t want to put a couple of quid on 1-0 Sunderland at 30/1.
^^ fully stand by that. 30/1 was a ridiculous price. Should’ve been 16/1.
How so? It’s happened 4 times in a row at home for them. It’s an obvious bet in my book.
It was never gonna be 1-0 Sunderland Neil
I put £100 on Man city just after the 2nd half kicked off, got 2/1. Done the same when they went 2-0 down to Watford.
Happy Days!!