Troyes v Bordeaux, 8pm
THE stats and form figures point towards a high-scoring encounter at Stade de l’Aube on Saturday night.
Troyes’ matches have been among the highest-scoring in the division – 18 out of 36 have featured over 2.5 goals, with the average goals per game count 2.78.
And they have to play to win because they’re three points from safety with two games to go so need all the points to stand a chance of keeping alive their hopes of staying in the division.
Bordeaux are tucked away with nothing to play for in mid-table but individually players are competing for a place in the French Cup Final against Evian at Stade de France on May 31.
Dour and defensive for much of the season, Bordeaux have thrown off the shackles and shown they can play decent attacking football in recent weeks – five of their last seven games in all competitions have featured over 2.5 goals, with the average goals-per-game count in those matches 3.29.
With Troyes compelled to attack and Bordeaux defensively more vulnerable but keener to get into the final third at the moment than they have been for much of the season, goals is the smart way to play.
Recommended Bets
Both teams to score @ 4/5
Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (safe)
Over 3.5 Goals @ 12/5 (risky)
Over 4.5 Goals @ 6/1 (high risk)
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Milesey is a genius.x
TOP TREBLE
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Sampdoria V Juventus
JUVENTUS WIN @ 2.00
Getafe CF V Valencia
VALENCIA WIN @ 1.85
Montpellier V Lille
LILLE WIN @ 2.10
Milesey
RESULT
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SPAIN: Primera Division
Getafe 0-1 Valencia
Milesey
Not when i follow his tips lol
Milesey has predicted my over 1.5 ht goal came in on North Star reserves vs Logan lighting reserves at ht 1-1 looking for for over 3.5 now
In case any is trying the accumulator games again today here are couple of games from me obscure as usual
Fc Dnepr Mogilev Belarus
Kooteepee Finland
Belouizdad Algeria
Cheers
Milesey’s GOLF BLOG
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After two days in Bulgaria, the convoluted and irritating group stage of the Volvo World Match Play Championship has finally finished and somewhat unsatisfactorily as far as I’m concerned. I woke up this morning to find in-running pick, Jamie Donaldson, three down after five holes to Brett Rumford and he ended-up losing 5 & 3. And my two pre-event picks, Ian Poulter and Bo Van Pelt were soon behind in their afternoon matches too.
Courtesy of two drawn matches and with much thanks to an awful finish by Geoff Ogilvy this afternoon, who threw away a two up with two to play lead when he three putted the last, the hapless Van Pelt somehow managed to scrape through, but Poulter, who looked like he might do the same, didn’t.
The grumpy Englishman had struggled all afternoon against Thomas Aiken but when he drew level with two to play, I was still confident that Mr Ryder Cup himself would just put the match to bed and move on to round two. It didn’t happen. He bogeyed the last and then threatened to hang himself!
I don’t have much confidence in Van Pelt tomorrow. Although I still think this venue really should suit his accurate game, he hasn’t putted especially well and he faces the number one seed and current favourite, Graeme McDowell, in the morning and I don’t fancy his chances.
Volvo World Match Play Championship Pre-Event Picks
Ian Poulter @ 9.8
Bo Van Pelt @ 23.0
Over at the HP Byron Nelson Championship, first round leader, Keegan Bradley, isn’t progressing anywhere near as impressively as he did yesterday, when he shot 60. He’s currently just one under-par for the day but he still leads by three. One of my very regular plays, Graham DeLaet, who in-theory was a good fit this week, is one of those tied for second as I type, so it’s fair to say I’m not exactly chuffed to bits with the state of play in Texas either.
One of my picks, John Huh, shot a decent six under-par round today though and on -7, he trails Bradley by four, so I’m not completely out of the game. I’ll let that one finish up tonight and take a look again in the morning but if Bradley could just throw in a couple of bogeys before he’s done today, I’d be most grateful.
HP Byron Nelson Championship Pre-Event Picks
D.A Points @ 51.0 (Fixed odds)
Brian Gay @ 130.0
John Huh @ 130.0
Matt Every @ 150.0 (Fixed odds)
James Driscoll @ 260.0
Justin Hicks @ 390.0
Patrick Reed @ 500.0
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The final weekend of the 2012/13 Premier League season
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Chelsea 1.73 v Everton 5.5; The Draw 4.1
Everton have only won one of their last 20 games at Stamford Bridge, so we can immediately disregard an away win from a statistical analysis point of view. However, six of the last 12 Premier League meetings between the two teams have ended in a draw, so the home win isn’t an obvious conclusion to draw.
Everton have won their last five Premier League games played on the final day of the season, including a 1-0 home win against Chelsea in 2010-11, while Chelsea are unbeaten in seven Premier League matches (W5 D2); their longest such run under Rafael Benitez.
With both sides having positives in the statistics, and the draw a popular result in this fixture, it makes sense to take the 4.1 on offer.
Best Bet: Back The Draw @ 4.1
Man City 1.36 v Norwich 11.0; The Draw 5.4
Norwich have won only one of their previous 11 Premier League games against Manchester City, and have been on the receiving end of some one-sided batterings in recent meetings.
City have scored 18 goals in their last four league games against the Canaries, with Sergio Aguero scoring four of those. More than the Argentine has scored against any other Premier League side.
Best Bet: Back Any Unquoted @ 4.4
Southampton 1.82 v Stoke 5.2; The Draw 3.8
Southampton have won six and drawn one of their last seven home games against Stoke City in all competitions, but are without a win in five successive Premier League matches (D3 L2) against all opposition; netting just two goals during this run.
With the Potters having scored only five goals in their last 10 Premier League away matches, the obvious conclusion is to go low on the number of goals scored this weekend.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.76
Swansea 1.91 v Fulham 4.4; The Draw 3.8
Swansea have a 100% Premier League record against Fulham having won each of their previous three meetings, and after losing just one of their last nine Premier League games its easy to conclude that a home win represents value at odds of 1.91.
If you’re looking for a bet at bigger odds then it may be worth looking at the HT/FT market. 11 of Dimitar Berbatov’s 14 Premier League goals for Fulham have come before half-time, while Swansea have scored the highest percentage of goals in the second half of matches in the Premier League this season (70%).
Best Bet: Back Fulham/Swansea @ 30.0 in HT/FT
West Brom 4.9 v Man Utd 1.82; The Draw 4.1
Only Chelsea (33) have scored more Premier League goals against West Brom than Manchester United (32), suggesting that Sir Alex Ferguson could sing off in style from his Manchester United tenure in his 1500th game.
Man Utd also have the best points per game ratio in the month of May in the history of the competition (2.07), while West Brom have the worst (0.84), of current top flight teams.
Best Bet: Back Man Utd to win @ 1.82
West Ham 1.7 v Reading 5.8; The Draw 4.0
The Hammers have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games (W4 D3 L1), but have won only one of their previous five Premier League meetings with Reading (D1 L3).
Reading’s record of having won fewer points away from home than any other side in the Premier League season means that we cannot back the visitors, but there is room to take on the hosts at odds-on prices.
Best Bet: Lay West Ham to win @ 1.7
Wigan 2.24 v Aston Villa 3.55; The Draw 3.55
Wigan have failed to win any of their last six home games in the Premier League against Aston Villa (D2 L4), and with the wind being battered out of them by Arsenal in midweek I can’t be having them as favourites here.
However, Christian Benteke’s suspension will leave Villa short of impetus in front of goal – he has contributed to half of Villa’s 30 Premier League goals this year (14 goals, 1 assist) – and so we should expect a low-scoring end-of-season stalemate.
Best Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 15.0
Newcastle v Arsenal
Back the draw @ 4.2 (16/5)
Back a 2-2 correct score @ 12.0 (11/1)
Newcastle take on Arsenal in one of only two really meaningful games and while The Gunners know that a win will secure Champions League football, I think that the draw is a huge runner at odds of 4.2 (16/5)
The Magpies have endured a difficult campaign that has been blighted by injuries and fixture congestion. Those excuses withstanding, Alan Pardew’s men have performed well below par and they are very lucky to not need a result going into this game.
The pressure will be off for a change though and I’m sure everyone involved with the club will want to finish the season on a high. Hatem Ben Arfa is back from injury and he netted from the spot at QPR last weekend. The defence aren’t up to much but they do at least have some quality players in the forward areas.
Arsenal are on a magnificent run of nine unbeaten since the defeat at White Hart Lane that many thought had ended their top four aspirations. Seven wins and two draws have lifted them about Spurs and they only have to match their rivals’ result on the final day.
Arsene Wenger’s side have looked a bit flaky at times though and they don’t have a leader on the field to rally the troops when the chips are down. I just have a sneaky suspicion that an away win isn’t the formality that the odds suggest and there could be one last twist to come.
The draw is just too big at 4.2 (16/5) and I also quite fancy a 2-2 scoreline at 12.0 (11/1) as we’ve had some high scoring results between these two in recent seasons.
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GOALSCORER GAMBLE
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Liverpool v QPR (Sunday, 16:00)
Daniel Sturridge has scored more goals (10) in his first 13 Premier League appearances for the club than any other Liverpool player
After wrapping up a first Premier League hat-trick at Craven Cottage, the sky is the limit for Liverpool’s £12 million January signing. Sturridge has always shown potential for great things, though only now in a red shirt is he starting to realise his potential on the big stage. Making the most of the absence of Luis Suarez, the striker is gratefully gobbling up Philippe Coutinho’s exquisite through balls and he should fill his boots once more against hapless QPR.
Best Bet: Back Daniel Sturridge to score @ 1.75
Manchester City v Norwich (Sunday, 16:00)
Sergio Aguero has scored four goals in the Premier League against Norwich; against no side has he scored more often
Despite a turbulent week following FA Cup failure in which Roberto Mancini was given the boot, Man City got the job done against Reading with efficiency. One of the scorers was Aguero who, by last season’s illustrious standards, has endured a mixed bag of a campaign. However, while this fixture promises no repeat of those fabled last-day heroics against QPR, the Canaries are more reminiscent of sitting ducks where the Argentine is concerned.
Recommended Bet: Back Sergio Aguero to score @ 2.1
Tottenham v Sunderland (Sunday, 16:00, Sky Sports 2)
Emmanuel Adebayor has scored five goals in his last six Premier League appearances in the month of May, including two in his last two matches for Spurs
Tottenham fans have been left wondering where the real Adebayor has been hiding all season, after the mercurial striker’s recent spate of goals. Still, those of a Lilywhite persuasion will have no qualms if the former Gooner scores against Sunderland and helps force his previous employers to start a season in the Europa League for the first time since 1997/98. He looks unplayable at present.
Recommended Bet:Back Emmanuel Adebayor to score @ 2.2
Wigan v Aston Villa (Sunday, 16:00)
Shaun Maloney has scored three and assisted four goals in his last nine appearances for Wigan in all competitions
Wigan’s Scotland international is one of a crop of players who is sure to attract offers from other top-flight clubs in the wake of the Latics’ Premier League elimination. Maloney’s recent performances and goals in a Wigan shirt have certainly caught the eye, especially his ability to notch a free-kick using that Gareth Bale-esque dipping technique. Being his last game in the shop window, he’ll be out to impress once more.
Recommended Bet: Back Shaun Maloney to score @ 3.75
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Tottenham v Sunderland
Sunday, KO 16:00, Live on Sky Sports 2
We end the season with a battle for fourth place between two North London rivals. In the red corner is Arsenal, who take their point advantage on the road with them to Newcastle and in the white corner are Spurs, who host Sunderland at White Hart Lane.
It promises for a nervous atmosphere, with the crowds at the respective matches being just as interested in the news from elsewhere as they are in the action on the pitch in front of them.
Tottenham have endured a long season due to their European exploits but they go into this game missing only their long term absentees Younes Kaboul and Sandro. Moussa Dembele should be fit to play having failed to start the last two games and could replace Scott Parker.
Sunderland have far more problems. The on-loan Danny Rose has returned to Spurs with injury and would have been ineligible anyway. Stephane Sessegnon and Craig Gardner are suspended, while Lee Cattermole and Steven Fletcher are both injured.
This could have been a potentially tricky game for Tottenham if Sunderland were in need of a result, but the midweek relegation of Wigan has left the Black Cats with nothing much to play for.
Yet it’s still hard to recommend odds of 1.31 on a Spurs win. Andre Villas-Boas’ side have often struggled to break down teams that they should beat at home, even when (like Sunderland) they have nothing much to play for. The recent 1-0 home loss to Fulham can count as painful evidence of that.
Under such circumstances the logic is to look for more value in other win markets. The Tottenham half-time/full-time result at 1.9 doesn’t provide it. If you look back at Spurs’ last 12 Premier League wins, they have only lead at half-time in two of them. The draw/Tottenham at 4.7 is a better bet.
Another market that you’d perhaps go for when the home side is a very short price, is for them to win to nil. Spurs can be backed at 3.05 to win without conceding, but statistically it looks unlikely.
On paper Sunderland’s attack might seem more toothless than a bald man’s comb, but they have managed to score at least one goal in their last six outings. Tottenham meanwhile, have only kept one clean sheet in their last 12 Premier League games.
Spurs are defending terribly from set pieces at the moment and the 1.98 for both teams to score appeals, while the 8.2 for AVB’s team to win from behind looks over generous. Tottenham have conceded the first goal in six of their last nine games.
Ultimately I expect Tottenham to prevail but as is often the case with the club, there are bound to be nervous times ahead and they are likely to make things difficult for themselves. 2-1 to Spurs at 10.0 is my correct score pick.
Spurs are now out at 3.2 to finish in the top four, with Arsenal at 1.42. I think Arsenal will also win, but there could be some trading opportunities in-play, with the market overreacting as the goals fly in.
Recommended Bets
Back both teams to score at 1.98
Back the draw half-time/Spurs full-time at 4.7
Back Tottenham to win from behind at 8.2
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SUNDAY 19TH MAY 2013
MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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Liverpool v QPR
Back Liverpool to win both halves @ 2.4 (7/5)
QPR complete their miserable campaign at Anfield but I can’t see them getting any respite from a rampant Liverpool.
The Reds are unbeaten in seven since their abysmal performance at St Mary’s back in March. They put three past Fulham last time out and hit Newcastle for six a fortnight ago. Luis Suarez hasn’t been missed at all as the likes of Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho have really stepped up to the plate.
Sturridge banged in a hat trick at Craven Cottage but it’s the performances of the Brazilian that have perhaps been the most impressive. He is looking like quite a find by Brendan Rodgers as not only does he score goals, he creates plenty as well.
Harry Redknapp’s appointment at Loftus Road was supposed to kick-start their survival bid. It never really worked out though and Rangers are set to finish bottom of the pile – further adrift than when the former Spurs boss took over.
They’ve picked up just two points from a possible 24 and scored only two goals in their last half dozen. Both those goals were scored by Loic Remy but given the recent stories about him in the media, it’s not a certainty that he will even travel to Anfield.
Liverpool to win both halves at 2.4 (7/5) is probably my strongest fancy of the entire weekend.
Over 3.5 Goals @ 1/1
Daniel Sturridge 2 or more goals @ 11/4
Milesey
Reply
MOTO GP
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Dani Pedrosa opened his 2013 win account at Jerez with a masterful, if somewhat unexpected victory. The talk of the race though was the battle between Jorge Lorenzo and rookie, and title leader, Marc Marquez. Marquez’s last corner overtake on Lorenzo drew criticism from some quarters, inclduing Lorenzo himself, for being too risky but for mine it was nothing more than an aggressive racing manouvere. The sort that Valentino Rossi was once applauded for but now Marquez is chastised over. The one thing it did show, above everything else though, was that Marquez is for real. He’s not laying down for anyone and believes he can win the title in his first season.
And that belief continues to reign at Le Mans. A track he’s never ridden a MotoGP bike on before yesterday and Marquez’s best time of the weekend so far is nearly half a second quicker than the rest. That’s a little misleading though. Over the course of the sessions his race pace more on track with everyone else rather than the two quick laps he pulled out this morning. He’s a 4.0 chance for the win, third favourite behind Pedrosa and Lorenzo and that seems about right. Although don’t sleep on him. The twenty year old is capable of anything.
Usually the king of consistency is Lorenzo but this weekend that crown goes to Pedrosa. Dani is more often than not a slow starter over a weekend but he has been bang on the money here straight out of the truck. That sort of instant pace from Pedrosa generally spells trouble for everyone else when he takes that rare route. A second favourite for victory at 3.25 seems a bit long for me and the Honda pilot is hands down the best value bet of the weekend.
Lorenzo, on account of being Lorenzo, sees himself a 2.88 exchange favourite. He hasn’t set the world alight this weekend but he has been thereabouts since the off. On Friday however he found himself behind his team-mate Valentino Rossi for the first time all year. Le Mans is one of Rossi’s all time top tracks, surprising perhaps since it is a favourite of very few. He scored two of his very few podiums with Ducati here over the last two seasons and his steady pace, and returnign grina nd confidence so far this weekend means anything hovering around 1.8 for a podium return is a decent investment on the Italian.
But the main topic of the weekend, as it so often is in Le Mans, is the weather, Today was freezing cold, tomorrow it’s mean to rain. Or not. No-one really knows. If it’s a flag-to-flag wet dry race, as it could very well be, then all the balls go back into the air. If it’s wet, look out for Cal Crutchlow and Rossi. If it’s damp, look out for the Ducatis. If it’s a bit of everything, draw straws.
Le Mans may not be one of the most exciting, or loved, circuits we visit but it always throws up a surprise or two. In the past we’ve seen unexpected wins for people like Chris Vermeulen in the past and surprise podiums for Rossi. It’s always the best race of the year to be sitting by the in play markets as anything can, and often does, happen.
Recommended Bet
Back Dani Pedrosa to win the French MotoGP @ 3.25
Milesey
LAY OF THE DAY
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St Etienne are odds-on for their French Ligue One clash with Marseille tonight and while they need a win to keep their European hopes alive, Marseille are in fine form and are value for at least a point.
St Etienne are sixth with just two games to go but only one point separates them, Lille and Nice in the battle for fourth and a Europa League place. They were in a much more commanding position but just two wins from their last nine has scuppered their chances. In all fairness to The Greens, they haven’t really been losing – last week’s defeat to Lorient being the only one during that run – but they’ve simply dropped too many points to challenge at the top.
Christophe Galtier’s side have been quite strong at home – 18 points from a possible 24 – however they’ve drawn two of their last four and failed to register a goal last time against Bordeaux. It is also worth noting that St-Etienne haven’t beaten Marseille in any of their last dozen meetings.
Marseille will finish in second place no matter what their results in their final two games so it’s perhaps wise to be cautious as they may play fringe players or lack motivation. I can’t imagine they’ll want to end their campaign on a low though and given that they’re on a run of 10 unbeaten, it’s doubtful that they’ll give that up easily.
Away from Stade Vélodrome, Élie Baup’s men have won two of their last three and not conceded a goal in any of their last four. Their only recent defeat on the road came at champions, PSG, so that can easily be excused.
St Etienne are odds-on because of perceived motivation and not form. That can be a dangerous rule to go by and at around the 1.91 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay St Etienne v Marseille @ 1.91
Milesey
Dani Pedrosa won a wet French Grand Prix as Britain’s Cal Crutchlow overcame a broken leg to take second – the best result of his MotoGP career.
Milesey
Spurs and Arsenal should both win their games on Sunday so even though bookies and sky sports are making a big deal out of the games it’s pretty much sorted….going to have a small bet on a crazy scoreline, Liverpool 9 QPR 0
cant be having troyes v bordeaux
both to score
bordeaux have nowt to play for, have one of the
worst scoring records in europe
troyes will go 1 up, and thats it for goals.
1-0 troyes, under 2.5 cert
Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result
1 Over 2.5 Troyes v Bordeaux
(Total Goals) 18/05/2013 None 9/10 To Run
2 Bayer Leverkusen Hamburg v Bayer Leverkusen
(Full Time Result) 18/05/2013 None 11/10
Won
3 Bayern Munich Borussia M’gladbach v Bayern Munich
(Full Time Result) 18/05/2013 None 4/9 Won
4 Yes SC Freiburg v Schalke
(Both Teams to Score) 18/05/2013 None 8/15 Won
5 Valencia Getafe v Valencia
(Full Time Result) 18/05/2013 None 3/4 Won……….
……….here’s hoping you’re right.
surprise surprise
troyes v bordnil 0-0
approaching half time.
you were wide of the mark with this one
milesy ??
boredeaux away games.
played 19 including todays borefest
total goals in these games 32.
i said under 2.5 cert
should have said 1.5 based on these stats
like i said earlier 1-0 now troyes.
game and scoring over.
Jasper, u better hope so because Milesey will hit you with both barrels if Bordeaux score.
Great call jasper went with 1-0 cheers mate. But also got to say milsey is usually pretty accurate, and no one wins every time
Good shout Jasper, you obviously didn’t watch it, was a nice free flowing game of football, what i didn’t count on was how sh*t these players are in this league when it comes to shooting and close control, The amount of chances in the stats just goes to show this game should have been a high scoring match, especially after the red card, the game was more open with chances at both ends, sometimes the luck is with you, sometimes against………….. i had two great high scoring games this morning, so was maybe too much to ask in this one…………. be on qpr v liverpool over 3.5 goals though tomorrow and hope this one goes better.
Milesey