Chelsea v Benfica, Wednesday, Amsterdm, 7.45pm, Live on ITV1
Match Odds: Chelsea 2.5, Benfica 3.2, the draw 3.4
CHELSEA'S interim boss Rafa Benitez insists he's led the club to a successful campaign and if they win the Europa League trophy it will be tough to dispute the Spaniard's assertion.
Saturday's 2-1 win at Aston Villa sealed Champions League qualification for next season, with Frank Lampard finally breaking Bobby Tambling's all-time goalscoring record, so all that remains is for the West Londoners to win a second major European trophy in two years.
Having dropped out of the Champions League at the group stage, Chelsea have gradually grown into this competition. The Blues needed a last-gasp goal to edge out Sparta Prague in the last 32 and had to overturn a first-leg deficit against Steaua Bucharest in the last 16.
They survived a late defensive collapse in Russia to overcome quarter-final opponents Rubin Kazan and Basel were beaten home and away in the semis.
Portuguese giants Benfica have reached their ninth European final, having also dropped out of the Champions League. I would argue the Eagles have had a tougher route to the final than Chelsea.
Impressive German outfit Bayer Leverkusen were beaten home and away, as were Bordeaux in the last 16. Newcastle gave Jorge Jesus's men a huge scare in the quarter-finals, moving to within a goal of progressing before Benfica landed the knockout blow.
The semis against Fenerbahce were equally difficult – Benfica lost the first leg 1-0 in Turkey but turned the tie around with a 3-1 home win to book a trip to the Amsterdam ArenA.
Chelsea are finishing the season strongly – they are unbeaten in their last eight, winning six of them. Their only draws in that period were at home to Spurs and away to Liverpool.
Benitez is sometimes unfairly labelled as a defensive coach but under his tutelage Chelsea have clicked offensively in recent weeks. The Blues have rattled in 17 goals in their last eight matches and have drawn a blank just once in their last 20 games in all competitions.
Former Benfica defender David Luiz is revelling in a new central midfield role – he scored a stunning long-range effort at Fulham last month and netted spectacular strikes in both legs of the Europa League semi against Basel. He is a healthy 20.0 to be first scorer and 6.0 in the to score market.
Benfica's confidence has been knocked by a two-match winless run in the Portuguese league which has cost them top spot with a game to go. A 1-1 draw at home to Estoril allowed rivals Porto to make up ground then Porto beat Benfica 2-1 with a stoppage-time winner to move a point clear at the top.
It's difficult to know whether such a catastrophic defeat will galvanise Benfica or damage their morale but they do look to be running out of steam after a long season.
At least Benfica take solace from their explosive attack. Talismanic Paraguyan striker Oscar Cardozo has scored five goals in his last five Europa League games (he is 3.25 in the to score market) and in the league has rattled in 16 goals in 20 games.
His fellow striker Eduardo Salvio has already won the Europa League twice with Atletico Madrid and has made more appearances in the competition (33) than any other player. Benfica have played 46 matches in all competitions and have only failed to score four times. Two of those games were against Barcelona.
Neither team has defended well of late – Benfica haven't kept a clean sheet for five games while Chelsea looked fragile at the back in their last two games against Aston Villa and Spurs. With two strong attacks on show I like the look of over 2.5 goals at 2.12. Finals can be cagey affairs but Chelsea are brimming with attacking talent and they'll play on the front foot.
After missing the Champions League Final through suspension, Chelsea club captain John Terry seems likely to miss this game with an ankle injury. A bigger blow is the potential loss of elusive Belgian winger Eden Hazard who has been terrific in recent weeks.
If Hazard fails to recover from an ankle injury his likely replacement Victor Moses is at least in good form, having scored a goal in each of his last four Europa League appearances. Benfica are without full-back Maxi Pereira because of suspension but welcome back Dutch winger Ola John from a ban.
Chelsea beat Benfica home and away in last season's Champions League quarter-finals and I think the Blues will come out on top again. I have been really impressed by their attacking play in the last couple of months, with Fernando Torres (five EL goals), Oscar and Juan Mata (six assists in European games) all sparkling at different times.
Former Benfica duo David Luiz and Ramires give real thrust from central midfield and I suspect Benfica will struggle to contain them. With free-scoring players like Frank Lampard likely to be on the bench, Chelsea have the opportunity to change things up if the game is tight in the latter stages and if things get tough they can draw on their experience of last season's Champions League Final win. I think the price of 2.5 for the Chelsea victory is too good to miss.
Recommended Bets
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.12
Back Chelsea to win at 2.5
Milesey (Betfair)
In December 2020 we sadly 
Do you think Lampard will start on the bench?
I was thinking 12/1 for Lampard man of the match would be a good shout. He’s 7/1 with Betfred but 12/1 with VC. Mata may also be a good shout at 7/1
He likes to play Oscar in the Europa games, so i expect Frank to be on the bench, got a full game at the weekend, and got his record, so i’d expect Oscar to come in, and of cause Torres will be in for Ba.
Milesey
Chris, like Milesey the info I says Lampard willl be on the bench.
Chris, just read that Lampard may start as captain with doubts over Mikel and Hazard.
I didn’t even think MIKEL was starting, and from what i’ve heard if no Hazard, then Moses will start…………………..
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Cech; Cole, Cahill, Ivanovic, Azpilicueta; Ramires, Luiz; Hazard, Mata, Oscar; Torres.
Milesey
Chelsea have suffered just one defeat in their eight previous clashes with Portuguese opposition, winning six (including each of the last five) and drawing one
Though this is not the European final that Chelsea’s players were dreaming of at the start of the season, it’s one they will be going all out to win nonetheless. Their ability to focus on this task is made all the easier by wrapping up a top-four berth in the Premier League with victory over Aston Villa just ahead of this showpiece. Having produced some of their best form this season in recent weeks – culminating in five wins in their last six games across all competitions – Rafa Benitez will be adamant that his players deliver him a favourable Stamford Bridge legacy. Furthermore, Benfica have a terrible European final record, having lost their last six in a row.
Recommended Bet: Back Chelsea to win @ 2.46
Victor Moses has netted in each of Chelsea’s last four Europa League games (four in four)
While Chelsea have an issue keeping clean sheets, scoring hasn’t been a problem in the latter stages. The Londoners have registered at least twice in their last five Europa League outings. The actual scoring has been shared between just three different players since they made it into the quarter-finals. Fernando Torres, Victor Moses and Brazilian David Luiz have been responsible for the last 11 European goals that Chelsea have plundered. Given the doubts over Eden Hazard’s hamstring holding out, Moses may well be the main beneficiary to claim one of those three attacking positions behind the lone striker.
Best Bet: Back Victor Moses to score @ 5.9
Benfica hitman Oscar Cardozo has netted five in his last five Europa League fixtures.
Six of Chelsea’s eight Europa League games this season have witnessed exactly one goal going against them. These matches have only produced one clean sheet for the Blues as well, who have relied on outscoring their opponents as a general rule. This is something that will no doubt trouble Rafa, who took great pride in defensive solidarity on the continent as Liverpool boss. If anyone is going to notch this customary goal for Benfica then look no further than Oscar Cardozo, who scored the two goals that overturned a 2-1 aggregate deficit in their Europa League semi-final against Fenerbahce.
Recommended Bet: Back Oscar Cardozo to score @ 3.55
Milesey
Benfica v Chelsea, Wednesday 7:45, ITV1.
Match Odds: Benfica 3.15, Chelsea 2.54, The Draw 3.4.
Benfica’s preparation for the Europa League final could hardly have been worse – Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Porto, where they conceded a stoppage time winner, was a heartbreaking way to lose the biggest game of the Portuguese league season. It is now Porto, rather than Benfica, who will start the final weekend of fixtures on top.
The Europa League final is not so much a distraction for Benfica, and rather an opportunity to put things right. If they are to fail in the league, only a victory over Chelsea would make this season satisfactory for Jorge Jesus’ side.
Chelsea’s formation and line-up should be predictable. The absence of Eden Hazard means Victor Moses will start on the wing – that’s a key area for Chelsea. John Obi Mikel will surely partner Benfica old boy Ramires if fit, with Frank Lampard an alternative.
On the other hand, Benfica have used a variety of shapes this season. Jesus has selected a 4-4-2 or a 4-1-4-1 at times, having favoured a diamond midfield in previous campaigns, although it’s more likely to be his standard 4-2-3-1 that starts this final, the same shape he used against Porto on Saturday night.
Although Benfica have a side full of good technical footballers, expect Chelsea to dominate possession at the Amsterdam Arena. Benfica are unlikely to press high up the pitch, and will instead focus upon remaining compact in their own half. Fernando Torres’ pace no longer seems a huge threat, so Benfica should be able to hold a high defensive line and deny Chelsea space in behind.
Jesus’ primary concern will be in the zone between the lines, where Juan Mata, Oscar and – if fit – Eden Hazard will roam. Mata is unquestionably Chelsea’s key player, and Benfica can be guilty of leaving too much space in that central zone for the opposition number ten to exploit. Nemanja Matic – formerly of Chelsea – is probably Benfica’s key player. He plays a left-of-centre holding role in front of the defence, and must stop Mata.
Matic usually has another midfielder alongside him, Enzo Perez – but it’s not inconceivable that Jesus could select Perez and another central midfielder, perhaps Carlos Martins, in a 4-1-4-1 system. That would give Benfica a more solid feel in the centre, although Mata could be able to skip either side of Matic into dangerous positions. Matic has a habit of getting into trouble with referees (seven bookings in 24 league games and four bookings in five Europa League starts) and at 3.0 is a decent bet to be cautioned here.
Where Chelsea can really cause problems, however, is down the flanks. Jesus is without experienced right-back Maxi Pereira through suspension, which means 22-year-old Andre Almeida will play on that side. On the opposite flank, left-back Lorenzo Malgarejo is probably Benfica’s weak link, and can look nervous against direct dribblers.
Not only are Benfica’s full-backs unimpressive, they lack protection from the midfield. Benfica often struggle against attacking full-backs because they use young, creative players in wide midfield positions – the likes of Ola John, Eduardo Salvio, Nicolas Gaitan aren’t always defensively reliable, and Rafael Benitez will probably ask Ashley Cole and Cesar Azpilicueta to motor forward and stretch the play.
Overall, Chelsea’s price of 2.54 seems a little high. Benfica have a talented group of players, but Jesus’ record in big matches is very poor, and while Chelsea fans still don’t have much love for Rafael Benitez, this seems like the type of tight contest he might prevail in.
The only blow is Hazard’s injury – without cup-tied Demba Ba, Chelsea lack attacking options from the bench. Still, I’ll back Chelsea at 2.54, especially after Benfica’s weekend disappointment.
Recommended bets:
Back Matic to be shown a card at 3.0
Back Chelsea to win (in 90 minutes) at 2.54
Milesey
Milesey, I’m reading Lampard is likely to start now and be captain but we’ll find out tomorrow.
Looking through a few previews online……….. actually looks like David Luiz will start in the middle of midfield.
Milesey
BENFICA v CHELSEA:
Both of these clubs started this European campaign in the Champions League and whilst this is not the silverware they would have hoped for it is still a major prize.
Chelsea have already sealed a Champions League spot for next season after an impressive win against Aston Villa which not only saw them seal CL spot but also saw a history being made by Frank Lampard who broke Bobby Tambling’s record of Chelsea’s all-time top goalscorer.
Rafa Benitez has concerns over availability of Eden Hazard and John Terry since both have experienced knocks last Saturday. Fernando Torres is certain to start this game since Demba Ba is cup-tied to play in the Europa League. Bertrand is out through a knee injury while Marin and Romeu are doubtful.
Benfica had a disastrous, potentially title losing 2-1 defeat to Porto at the weekend, in which they conceded the winner in injury time, that could have hurt their confidence ahead of this fixture. That was their first league defeat of the season.
Benfica’s form of late has been poor by their standards, only 3 wins out of the last 8 in all competitions, they’ve lost 2 and drawn the other 3. Previous to this latest run though they had won 8 games in a row! scoring 25 goals and conceding only 4!
Lima might partner Cardozo in the attacks for Benfica, with Ola John on the bench. Luisao and Jardel are fighting for a the central defender spot alongside of Garay. Salvio and Nico Gaitan will support the strikers with Aimar ready to help his team in the second half.
The undoubted star is forward Oscar Cardozo, who has six goals in eight games in the competition this term, the Paraguayan also netting two in five Champions League contests as his side were narrowly edged out of Group C.
BENFICA v CHELSEA: PROBABLE LINEUPS
Benfica (4-2-2-2): Artur, Luisao, Pereira, Garay, Almeida; Matic, Perez; Salvio, Gaitan; Lima Cardozo
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Cech; Cole, Cahill, Ivanovic, Azpilicueta; Ramires, Luiz; Hazard, Mata, Oscar; Torres.
Chelsea to win by one @ 4.20 paddypower
1:2 Correct Score @ 10.00 betvictor
Draw/Chelsea HT/FT @ 6.00 pinnacle
Oscar anytime goalscorer @ 4.50 coral
Milesey
Mr f can you tell me where you heard lampard is likely start bcuz it’s between him and mata 4 man ov the match 4 me wiv Cardozo and Torres anytime scorers.
DALEOVSOT, Daily Mail online is one source and other papers saying it too. And Milesey’s just posted Sky Sports who reckon he’s starting with Hazard confirmed out.
Chelsea forward Eden Hazard has been ruled out of the Europa League final against Benfica on Wednesday evening with a hamstring injury.
Rafa Benitez confirmed on Tuesday that the Belgium international had not recovered in time after pulling up in the closing stages of Saturday’s 2-1 victory over Aston Villa.
But captain John Terry will be given a chance to prove he has recovered from his ankle problem in time for the Amsterdam ArenA.
Centre-back Terry also limped out of the Villa Park encounter at the weekend but a final decision on his fitness will not be made until nearer the kick-off.
“Hazard will not be available,” Benitez said. “John still we will try and see how he feels. We will try to see tomorrow.”
Terry missed last season’s UEFA Champions League final win in Munich through suspension and his injury means he faces further continental heartache.
“Now it’s not easy for him,” Benitez added. “It’s not the best injury, but we will see today, we will see tomorrow with the medical staff and after we will decide.”
The 32-year-old former England captain’s place in the side was already doubtful in a competitive position in central defence, with David Luiz, Gary Cahill and Branislav Ivanovic the Blues’ other options.
Lampard
The loss of Belgian playmaker Hazard will be more keenly felt by the Blues as they go in search of back-to-back European trophies.
Coupled with the concern over John Obi Mikel, who has a hip problem, it may mean Frank Lampard is included, in all likelihood as captain.
Lampard, who became the club’s record goalscorer by netting twice in the win at Villa Park, could be deployed in a deep midfield role alongside Luiz, with Ramires pushed further forward alongside Juan Mata and Oscar.
Lampard’s future has been shrouded in doubt for much of the season.
The England midfielder, who will be 35 in June, is out of contract at the end of the season, with talks on his fate likely to take place after Sunday’s 69th and final match of the season at home to Everton.
Lampard said: “I don’t know what the future exactly holds, but it doesn’t matter tomorrow night. It’s about winning the game.”
Chelsea travelled to Amsterdam with a 25-man squad, with left-back Ryan Bertrand (knee) a doubt, but midfielder Oriol Romeu is in contention following his long-term absence with a knee problem.
Demba Ba also travelled, but the striker is ineligible after playing for former club Newcastle earlier in the competition.
sky sports
Milesey
Lampard a good shout at 12/1 for man of the match with Victor Chandler. He is only 7/1 with Betfred.
David Luiz would be a good outsider bet, think chelsea will win also but if Luiz gets a goal he must have a chance, and being up at corners and possibley taking freekicks can see him scoring 7/1 at ladbrokes so that’ll be my super single :)
Chelsea to win btts at 4/1 for me
also I put a £5 on luiz to score anytime.
From the racing post this morning it states that man of the match from the past 3 Europa league finals has been the first Goalscorer. The racing post are tipping Torres for man of the match @ 10/1 and Mata first assist @ 10/1.
Torres 1st GS @ 6/1 Money back as a free bet if Chelsea fail to win @ Ladbrokes.
Perez most tackles 12/1
Recommended Bets
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.12
Back Chelsea to win at 2.5
That will do nicely to end the day ;) ;) GET IN !!!!!!!!
Milesey