Porto v Benfica, Saturday, 8.30pm
SATURDAY night, forget it, stay in, this one is simply unmissable.
Porto host Benfica in O Classico, a championship decider and one of the biggest games in Europe this season. In Portugal they are calling this one the game of the century.
All year these two giants have been inseparable and unbeatable. In March, Porto stumbled and drew a couple of games and that gave Benfica the advantage and with a four-point lead they were cruising.
But last week catastrophe hit, they drew with Estoril, an appalling result which meant Porto cut the lead to two.
It's now simple, Porto need to win in the Dragao and if they fail they most likely hand the title to their archrivals.
Porto boast the most impressive home record in the league, winning all but one so far and have been installed as firm favourites for this titanic clash at 2.08. Colombian superstars Jackson Martinez and Jaime Rodriguez have impressed all season, as have Moutinho and Gonzalez in midfield and Porto also have the best defence in the league conceding under a goal every other game.
Benfica have the best away record in the league and are the top scorers in the Primeira Liga, they won their last four on the road only conceding a solitary goal. Up front Cardozo and Lima do the business while Salvio and Gaitan run thing just behind them.
After conceding the title to Porto the last two years it looked like the Super Eagles were going to wrench it back this time. But last Monday's disappointing result has changed opinion, there now seems to be a consensus Benfica have lost the impetuous and maybe a bit of confidence.
They have also had to negotiate a draining Europa League campaign and face Chelsea in the final next Wednesday. Can Porto capitalise on Benfica's nerves and tiredness?
Benfica have a couple of injury worries but all the main protagonists from both teams will be on show. Despite Benfica knowing a draw will be enough they can't hope to contain the Porto attackers so don't expect them to sit back for long.
The atmosphere in the Dragao will be incredible and it should be a hell of a spectacle.
Recommended Bets
Back HT/FT Draw/Porto @ 5.7
Back Porto to win 2-1 @ 9
Back Porto to win @ 2.08
Besiktas v Genclerbirligi, Saturday, 6pm
FIRST up on Saturday night is a trip to the banks of the Bosphorous to catch up with Besiktas as they host Genclerbirligi.
Despite their best efforts neither Besiktas nor Fenerbahce could keep up with Galatasaray this year and last weekend Gala reclaimed their crown. The race now is for the champions league qualification spot.
Fenerbahce are in the driving seat, they hold a three-point advantage over Besiktas with only two games to go but that could well change this weekend.
Besiktas have a relatively straightforward home game while Fenerbahce must face champions and arch rivals Gala on Sunday. It's imperative Besiktas win on Saturday to put the pressure on.
Besiktas have been the most entertaining team to watch in Turkey this season – they're dangerous up front but wobbly at the back and their games guarantee goals. It's worth having a look at the overs in this one.
The Besiktas squad contains less famous names than their city rivals but coach Samet Aybaba has rotated his players to good effect.
Manuel Fernandes and Olcay Sahan have been their most consistent contributors and dominate the midfield in most home games at the Inonu Stadium.
Up front the goalscoring burden has been shared, at the start of the campaign it was Holosko and Almeida, but due to injury and loss of form the likely strike pairing on Saturday will be on loan Mamadou Niang and ex-Genclerbirligi player Mustafa Pektemek.
Genclerbirligi finished ninth last year and it looks like they'll have to settle for a similar position this time. Hard to beat but with a modest scoring record they have become the draw specialists in Turkey, 14 times already this season they've shared the points with the opposition.
One man to look out for will be Belgian striker Bjorn Vleminckx, since his loan arrival in January he has scored nine in 14 and given Genclerbirligi much more of a threat up front.
Besiktas will be determined to get the win, they will also be aware their goal difference needs improving if they are to have a chance of leapfrogging Fener. Expect the Black Eagles to win in an entertaining game.
Recommended Bets
Back Besiktas to win @ 1.52
Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.54
Milesey's Bet of the Day
Espanyol v Real Madrid, Saturday, 9pm
REAL seem to have been playing all-out attack for the last few games as Jose Mourinho aims to bow out amid memories of silky attacking flair rather than dour defensive gamesmanship.
They travel to Barcelona on Saturday night although, sadly for El Clasico fans, it is to visit Espanyol rather than the champions elect.
Even Stevenage would fancy their chances of scoring past Jose’s jokers at the moment so even though Espanyol are the definition of mid-table mediocrity, with no goals in their last two outings, this one looks like absolutely nailed on for both teams to score.
Recommended Bet
Both teams to score @ 8/13 Bet365
Bayern Munich v Augsburg, Saturday, 2.30pm
BAYERN have dominated the Bundesliga because they have by far the strongest squad in the division.
Jupp Heynckes' preferred starting 11 is incredibly talented but it's the sheer depth of talent at his disposal which has put the Bavarian giants 20 points clear of Borussia Dortmund.
For example, when Dortmund's star striker Robert Lewandowski is unavailable, Jurgen Klopp calls upon Julian Schieber (three goals in 21 Bundesliga appearances).
When Heynckes is without Mario Mandzukic he can pick Mario Gomez (11 goals in 19 league games) or even Claudio Pizarro (six goals in 19 Bundesliga matches). Indeed, Gomez and Arjen Robben have made just nine league starts apiece and yet have racked up 15 goals and six assists between them.
Heynckes has at least two high-quality options for each position (I include the goalkeeping department as Tom Starke is excellent) and there are plenty of players keen to make their mark ahead of the Champions League Final against Dortmund and the German Cup Final against Stuttgart.
All of this is bad news for relegation-threatened Augsburg, who are in the relegation play-off spot, just two points above the automatic drop zone.
Augsburg looked doomed at the winter break but have rallied impressively under inexperienced coach Markus Weinzierl, who has made his team much more attacking in the second half of the campaign.
As a result of this riskier approach, Augsburg have simply stopped drawing games, winning five and losing six of their last 11 matches. Away from home they have struggled of late, losing their last three road matches.
Augsburg know their final game will be against relegated Greuther Furth and that's a match they will expect to win.
A good result at the Allianz Arena would be a massive bonus but it's hard to envisage that against a Bayern side that has won 19 out of the last 23 league games.
Opta tell us Augsburg have lost their last 10 encounters with Bayern and even though they are yet to lose a game by more than two goals this season, I like the look of backing Bayern -2.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.04.
In seven of their last 10 games, Bayern have won to nil and despite Augsburg's attacking improvements I would back Bayern to do so again at 2.08. If Juventus and Barcelona couldn't score at the Allianz, it's fair to say Augsburg might struggle too.
Recommended Bets
Back Bayern to Win to Nil at 2.08
Back Bayern -2.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.04
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
COUPLE FOR SUNDAY
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PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag
Sunday 13:30
With a Europa League playoff place still a possibility, Raymond van Barneveld’s beloved ADO Den Haag travel to the Ijsseldelta Stadium knowing that three points is vital if they are to leapfrog rivals Heerenveen in dramatic, last day style.
The visitors sit only two points behind the all important eighth spot and come into this fixture with a moral boosting victory over Feyenoord in their last outing – which notably ended the Rotterdam side’s push for Champions League football.
With five places and four points separating these two sides, it would be fair to say that both have endured an inconsistent campaign. With little movement from both their current league positions throughout the season, it is no surprise that neither side has managed to put a run of three wins together throughout the year. This combined with the lack of a prolific goal scorer between them; both sides have had to rely on grinding out victories and taking points off the sides around them.
Prolific… perhaps not, but Den Haag’s Dutch striker Mike van Duinen has performed well this season. With eleven goals to his name and an ever present in the starting eleven, the 21 year old looks to have a bright future ahead of him in the Eredivisie.
With nothing to play for except for an eleventh placed finish, the hosts will come into this fixture with their summer holiday heads on. Escaping the relegation playoffs with back to back wins a fortnight ago, Art Langeler’s side will be happy with their debut Eredivisie season safe in the knowledge that they will be playing top flight football again next campaign.
Although they have only managed to pick up nine victories – their 3-1 away win to PSV will surely rank highly on the list of this season’s achievements.
Relying on Heerenveen or Groningen dropping points, Den Haag know that their fate is out of their hands. However, with three points the minimum requirement for Maurice Steijn’s side, expect them to come out strongly in Zwolle doing all they can to keep the pressure up on a nervy last day in the Eredivisie. With everything else settled, all eyes will be on this race for eighth place, which in turn will dot the I’s and cross the T’s on another exciting Eredivisie season.
Recommended Bet:
Back ADO Den Haag to win @ 2.3
Back a 2-0 ADO Den Haag win @ 6.0
Genk vs Anderlecht
Sunday 17:00
With Anderlecht getting their title bid back on track last weekend, the topsy-turvy nature of the Belgian playoff continues this weekend as Genk play hosts in a crucial clash at the Cristal Arena.
With four points being taken in four playoff fixtures, Anderlecht fans were rightly starting to fear the worst as the chasing pack closed in on the reigning title holders. After winning the regular season by a comfortable distance, the playoff format has played into the hands of the title pretenders with pressure coming from all angles. A Genk win could see them move top after starting this weekend in fourth spot, and with three games to go the smallest of margins could end up deciding whose home the Belgian title goes to.
The hosts have made easier work of the playoffs than their visitors so far. Taking eleven points from seven games, Genk have looked genuine title contenders and confirmed this status last weekend with a phenomenal 4-0 away win against in-from Zulte-Waregem.
Finishing third in the regular season, Mario Been’s side were considered the ‘best of the rest’ as the chasing pack failed to keep up with the pace set by Anderlecht and Zulte. With the best form coming into the playoffs, a big push for the title was expected and so far the Genk boys haven’t disappointed.
In-form striker Jelle Vossen has looked dangerous all season. Scoring twenty goals in the previous two seasons, he is only three away from that incredible feat of consistency again, and with three games remaining the Belgian striker will fancy his chances of reaching that target.
With only two wins from their seven playoff games so far for Anderlecht, John van der Brom knows the importance of this weekend’s fixture and will be eager as ever to secure back to back wins for the first time since February.
As ever, their strike force will be their main threat. Mbokani, de Sutter and Jovanovic haven’t been shy of goals this season and will be confident of finding holes in a Genk defence that have been rather generous to attackers this season.
An Anderlecht win will see them retain their two point lead at the top of the tree (at the very least), and with Zulte and Club Brugge facing tricky away ties the purple and white’s could have one hand back on their title after this weekend has concluded…
Recommended Bet
Back Anderlecht to win @ 2.28
Back 2-1 Anderlecht @ 9.4
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SUNDAY
MILESEY’S BET OF THE DAY
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Lyon v PSG (3rd v 1st) 8PM K/O
By the time this game kicks-off PSG may have been already crowned champions. If Marseille lose at home to Toulouse on Saturday afternoon then PSG will be at least seven points clear with two games to play.
If Marseille draw then PSG are virtually assured of the title because of their vastly superior goal difference – and if Marseille win then PSG can seal their first league triumph in 19 years by beating Lyon in the big Sunday night game. My feeling is we’ll get an open and exciting game whether PSG need the points or not, not only because this is a clash between the division’s two highest-scoring sides, but also because there’s so much at stake for Lyon.
About six weeks ago Remi Garde’s side looked nailed-on for second place but an attack of the jitters has seen them fall four points behind Marseille (now in second place), which means Lyon are battling it out with Nice, St Etienne and Lille for the third and final Champions League spot. Lyon will be praying PSG already have the title wrapped up by the time the teams take the field in order to make their task easier – yet regardless of the situation Lyon’s best hope of winning will be to adopt an attacking approach because they are more convincing offensively than defensively. Second-choice goalkeeper Anthony Lopes will start for a third consecutive match because no. 1 Remy Vercoutre is injured, while Lyon’s centre-halves continue to perform uncertainly regardless of who Garde picks.
Recommended Bet:Lyon v PSG Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05
Milesey
Lay Bordeaux to beat Nancy @ 2.4
After showing significant promise early in their Ligue 1 campaign, Bordeaux are now shackled in mid-table due in no small part to their propensity for a draw. France’s ninth-placed side have drawn an incredible 16 times in 35 league games this season, twice more than any other team and eight times more than Paris St-Germain at the summit. Here they face a Nancy side fighting for their top-flight status. However, the visitors have displayed brilliant character to pull away from the bottom of the division after spending the majority of their campaign propping up the rest. A run of six games unbeaten which included four wins may have been ended by third-placed Lyon at the weekend but, given that this game comes three days before Bordeaux’s French Cup semi-final, the hosts will surely rest players and could lose focus.
Lay Osasuna to beat Getafe @ 1.95
A cursory glance at the form book is enough to alert the potential layer to this shades of odds-on price for struggling Osasuna. Hovering precariously just a point above the danger zone, the hosts’ 4-0 drilling away to Valencia last Saturday represented their sixth loss in nine La Liga games, a dire run which has witnessed a solitary win six games ago. Eighth-placed Getafe make the trip still harbouring faint dreams of a Europa League spot after pulling off one of the results of the weekend by ending Real Sociedad’s 15-game La Liga unbeaten run with a 2-1 victory on Monday. This should give the visitors every confidence that they can improve on the 1-1 draw with Osasuna earlier in the season.
Lay Werder Bremen to beat Eintracht Frankfurt @ 2.24
Since clinching a third-place finish back in 2009/10, Werder have really struggled to make an impression in the higher reaches of the Bundesliga. Now they find themselves embroiled in a relegation battle after a truly dismal second half of their campaign which has witnessed only two wins that both arrived way back at the beginning of February. Their next 11 games have seen their fans endure six losses and five draws leaving them teetering just three points above safety heading into this game against Frankfurt. Meanwhile, newly promoted Frankfurt – who’ve picked up seven points from their last nine available – are hot on the heels of Schalke in fifth as they chase Champions League football for the first time.
Milesey
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Atletico 3.8 Barcelona 2.0 draw 3.8
Barcelona will be crowned champions if they win at the Vicente Calderon on Sunday.
Leo Messi should be fit to start and that’s enough to persuade us to back the Catalans to notch a sixth straight win over Atletico, who contrived to lose 2-1 at home to city rivals Real just a fortnight ago.
Diego Simeone has the Copa del Rey final to think about and might even rest a few first-teamers.
Recommended Bet
Back Barcelona @ 2.0
Malaga v Sevilla
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Malaga 2.7 Sevilla 2.86 draw 3.5
Sevilla last won on the road at Deportivo La Coruna in September. Since then, every other team in the top five European leagues has won at least one away game.
But we are now in the twilight zone of the season, a shadowy place where motivation can be as important as form.
Malaga have lost 5/8 – most recently bested 6-2 by Real Madrid on Wednesday – and will probably not now make next season’s Champions League, whatever the result of their appeal.
The squad was stretched by a run to the quarter-finals of the Champions League that the players must now be feeling in their legs. For Manuel Pellegrini’s men, the rest of the season is not much more than a warm-down.
Away draws with Betis and Valladolid have shown Sevilla are not total losers away from home. With Geoffrey Kondogbia and Gary Medel back in central midfield, Unai Emery’s side have a chance to break new ground.
Recommended Bet
Back Sevilla Draw No Bet @ 2.02
Milesey
Genoa v Inter
I wouldn’t normally recommend a team involved in a relegation struggle against one of Italy’s giants at odds on, but Genoa look like value at home against Inter at around 1.85. Inter’s shortcomings have been plain to see in recent weeks, and they’ve now lost 7 of their last 10 games as they fade towards a mid table finish. Antonio Cassano may be fit enough to return to the Inter bench, but suspensions for both Juan Jesus and Alvaro Pereira seriously weaken Inter’s already injury hit squad. Davide Ballardini has turned around Genoa’s fortunes, and their fully fit squad and desperation for a win means that they should be a bit shorter to beat abject Inter. Inter have already lost a record number of games this Serie A season, expect them to add one more defeat to the tally this weekend.
Recommended Bet
Back Genoa to beat Inter @ 1.85
Milan v Roma
Sunday night’s big game has had the edge taken off it somewhat by Roma’s shock midweek defeat by Chievo. Roma were on the charge, and there was real confidence that they could still make a run at 4th place, but the wind has been knocked out of their sails now, and for all Aurelio Andreazzoli’s public statements, they must know that their race is run. Milan need three points from their last two games to be absolutely sure of a Champions League qualifying round place, and I think that they’re a little short to beat Roma. Andreazzoli’s team were a little unfortunate against Chievo, and their win the previous week in Florence showed the quality that they possess. Roma have a team which is packed with big game players, and they’re good enough to at least pick up a draw in Milan, especially with the psychological benefits of the thrashing they dished out to the Rossoneri before Christmas. Roma should still be motivated enough to want something from this game, and so the lay of Milan at a stupidly short 1.72 is the play.
Recommended Bet
Lay Milan against Roma @ 1.72
Milesey
Milesey, I’m done!
me too, still buzzing after my night at the dogs though, 5 wins out of 6, came home with a fat wallet ;) ;)
Milesey
Milesey, that’s better than coming home with a fat burd I suppose!
DOGS Romford, Friday
Rummy Lord (20:18) ** WIN @ 4/6 **
Droopys Move (20:50) ** WIN @ 11/10 **
Airforce Roger (21:24) ** 3RD @ 7/2
Nans Turbo (21:56) ** WIN @ 2/1 **
Glanmire Lad (22:11) ** WIN @ 4/7 **
Lughill Valerie (22:26) ** WIN @ 3/1 **
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Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.74 in Ceske Budejovice v Hradlec Kralove
RESULT: 1 – 0
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Over 2.5 match goals @ 4/5 IN Zorya V Metalist Kharkiv
RESULT: 1 – 3
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Back Draw in Crystal Palace v Brighton at 3.2
RESULT: 0 – 0
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Levante v Zaragoza
Back the draw @ 3.4
RESULT: 0 – 0
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Murray A. (Gbr) 0 – 2 Berdych T. (Cze)
BACK Berdych @ 1.97
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Wawrinka S. (Sui) 2 – 1 Tsonga J-W. (Fra)
Back Wawrinka @ 1.75
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GOLF
LEADER AFTER ROUND 2 IS SERGIO GARCIA -11….. ONTO MY PICKS, AND LOOKS LIKE MICKELSON HASN’T MADE THE CUT.
WEBB SIMPSON @ 28.0 -6
Marc Leishman @ 220.0 -6
Ben Crane @ 140.0 -4
Luke Donald @ 24.0 -3
John Huh @ 280.0 -2
Phil Mickelson @ 30.0 +1
Mark Wilson @ 400.0 +4
Milesey
hahaha, betfair account bulging aswell, 2 draws in the football, the unders and overs in……. both tennis matches went my way ;)
Milesey
Once again, Top Tipping
Well Done
Milesey,,,Cheers for the Porto v Benfica piece,,Im all over Porto with this one,,Ive been going on about this tie for a cpl of weeks now,,should be a great match but I reckon Porto have a slight advantage as Benfica seem to be tiring,,when u look at both teams final match nxt week with Porto away to Pacos I think this gives more importance on a win tonight with Benfica at home to relegated Moriense???
My team of the Portuguese season : Pacos Ferrier…
And thanks for assisting in a wee top up of the weekend balance,,,,C. Palace v Brighton last night,,I believe you had 0-0 in the piece you wrote,,I got a wee single @ 8/1 last night,,cheers mate
Recommended Bets
Back Bayern to Win to Nil at 2.08
Back Bayern -2.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.04
RESULT
BAYERN 3 – 0 AUGSBURG
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Lay Werder Bremen to beat Eintracht Frankfurt @ 2.24
RESULT
BREMEN 1 – 1 FRANKFURT
Milesey
Some good results this weekend, nice one :)
PLAYER CHAMPIONSHIP – TWO BALL TIPS
———————————————————-
Starts 18.20
Back Martin Laird to beat Rory McIlroy 3u @ 3.0
Prior to Thursday’s 66, Rory McIlroy had only managed a best score of par in six rounds at Sawgrass and the fact he failed to beat par again yesterday means the jury must remain out regarding his suitability to this narrow track. Moreover, unlike Tiger Woods in his pomp, Rory is not somebody to rely upon when out of contention.
Those doubts must point towards a bet on the man who got the better of Rory in the recent Texas Open. Martin Laird was second here last year and, while lacking consistency, often thrives in the big US events. Laird is close enough to challenge again and, at the very least, rates a value outsider to win a two-ball that might not be as daunting as it first appears.
Starts 19.20
Back Henrik Stenson to beat Ryan Palmer @ 1.9
It is not that easy to differentiate between the leading groups at halfway, with several obvious pre-tournament candidates in the mix. The one name that stands out as a surprise is Palmer, who had previously made only one out of seven cuts here and finished a dismal 75th on that occasion. In complete contrast, Stenson is a course specialist, a former winner with five top-25s to his name here.
Milesey
**********************************
Back HT/FT Draw/Porto @ 5.7
Back Porto to win 2-1 @ 9
Back Porto to win @ 2.08
RESULT
H/T PORTO 1 BENFICA 1
F/T PORTO 2 BENFICA 1
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Milesey’s Bet of the Day
Espanyol v Real Madrid
Both teams to score
ESPANYOL 1 REAL MADRID 1 60 MINS
************************************
Milesey
FULL HOUSE ;) ;)
Back HT/FT Draw/Porto @ 5.7
Back Porto to win 2-1 @ 9
Back Porto to win @ 2.08
RESULT
H/T PORTO 1 BENFICA 1
F/T PORTO 2 BENFICA 1
Milesey
Some brilliant today milesy, brilliant on the porto game, away from betting, imagine the atmosphere there right now with the late goal as well , awesome
I watched it, they went crazy, and was some strike as well, the whole bench ran onto the pitch, Benfica staff and players were distraught.
Milesey
Milesey,I take my hat off to u,simply supurb tipping on the Porto – Benfica game