BARCELONA have a mountain to climb at the Nou Camp tonight and I'm not sure they can do it – but there will be plenty of goals between them and Bayern Munich.

Barcelona trail 4-0 after being on the end of a footballing master classat the Allianz Arena. The Germans completely nullified the Spaniards A game and as we've come to learn with Barca they don't have much of a plan B.

Lionel Messi was completely ineffective but to be fair to the Argentine striker he clearly wasn't fully fit and after eight days of recuperation should present more of a threat to the Bayern defence this evening.

Tito Vilanova has injury and suspension headaches at the back though so it's hard to see them keeping a clean sheet – meaning they will need to score six themselves to progress. Jordi Alba and Javier Mascherano will be missing and Gerard Pique isn't in the best of form.

Bayern will have learned from their last-16 tie with Arsenal about how to play the second leg with a commanding lead. Manager Jupp Heynckes won't let his players forget what happened in Germany against the Gunners and I'm sure he will send out his side with the message to score a goal.

The Munich defence has been exceptional in large parts this season but I can't see them keeping Barcelona out for 90 minutes. Mario Mandzukic should return to replace Mario Gomez and the Croatian striker has been exceptional since his move from Wolfsburg.

Barcelona have to go for it from the off and if they can score an early goal then anything is possible. Bayern will be deadly on the break – especially the pace of Arjen Robben – and I just can't see how this Barcelona defence will cope. That's why, with under 3.5 goals trading around the 1.79 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet

Lay Under 3.5 goals in Barcelona v Bayern Munich @ 1.79

Milesey (Betfair)

1 Comment
  1. Milesey 8 years ago


    Bet 1: HB Koge (HOME) @ 1.9 (10/11)

    We begin in Denmark as HB Koge look like a decent price to end their run of three home matches without victory at the expense of Bronshoj.

    The Swans were relegated from the Danish Superliga last season and after 27 games in the First Division they are only seventh of 12. There may only be five games left in their campaign but they still need to keep looking over their shoulder as they’re only eight points clear of the relegation zone.

    Per Frandsen will want to put a couple of wins on the board to settle their nerves and they have a good opportunity the evening. They may have picked up only a single point from a possible nine at home recently, but before that they’d won three on the spin, including a 1-0 victory against the team in second place.

    Bronshoj ended a run of four straight defeats last time by beating the rock bottom Fyn. While the margin of victory was dominant, Fyn are the league’s whipping boys so I wouldn’t count on the result to start a revival.

    Prior to that, Bronshoj had lost three in a row away from home, all without scoring a goal. They may be a couple of places higher than HB Koge in the table, but I just can’t see them getting anything from the match.

    Bet 2: Libertad (AWAY) @ 1.61 (8/13)

    Off to South America now for our first of two visits as Libertad look like a good thing to win at Sportivo Luqueño.

    Libertad are the reigning Paraguayan champions but after drawing five of their opening 10 fixtures of this season, they need to get a few wins under their belt. Rubén Israel’s side are already 11 points adrift of first place and while they do have a game in hand, they need to start closing that gap sooner rather than later.

    They have a fantastic opportunity tonight as they face the side who are rock bottom with just six points. Sportivo Luqueño have lost their last three at home and have picked up just two points from a possible 15 there all season – scoring only one goal.

    This is a banker away victory and if you want further evidence then Libertad have won their last two on this ground by a 6-0 aggregate score.

    Bet 3: Barcelona v Bayern Munich (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.53 (8/15) – Sky Sports One at 19:45

    To the Nou Camp now for the second leg of the Champions League semi-final tie between Barcelona and Bayern Munich. The Germans produced a ruthless display at the Allianz Arena last week in winning 4-0 and while I don’t think we’ll get the same result, I’m confident of there being plenty more goals.

    Lionel Messi clearly wasn’t 100% fit in Germany but he’s had another eight days to recuperate and he should be much sharper this evening. The Argentine has netted eight times in this competition already this year and if his team are to make the final in London, he will need to significantly add to that total.

    Barca will have to take plenty of risks to overturn this deficit and that will leave them vulnerable at the back – even more so considering the injuries and suspensions they have there. Bayern’s Mario Mandzukic should be back in the starting line-up after serving a one game ban and he offers a much more all-round game than Mario Gomez. The Croat has excelled since his move to Munich – scoring 21 times in all competitions.

    I can’t see either side keeping a clean sheet as Barcelona can be irresistible going forward at times and Bayern will be deadly on the break. Over 2.5 is a short price, but I definitely feel like it’s value.

    Bet 4: Gremio v Santa Fe (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.66 (4/6) – Available on Betfair Live Video at 23:30

    It’s Copa Libertadores action now as Gremio play host to Sante Fe in the first leg of their last 16 tie. As it’s the first leg of two, I expect a cautious approach from both teams and I can’t see there being many goals.

    Gremio finished last season with a flourish by going 15 games unbeaten to qualify for the Libertadores. Despite making hard work of their group – including losing the opening match at home to Huachipato – they made it through and will be hoping to add to their previous two COL titles.

    Vanderlei Luxemburgo’s side have seen five of their last six at home go under 2.5 goals, with their last two results being 0-0 draws. Their defence have been in fine form – six clean sheets from eight at Arena do Grêmio – and it’s hard to see their opponents getting much joy tonight.

    Santa Fe won the Colombian National Championship in 2012 and they made it through their group in this competition with ease. They drew their first two matches before winning their remaining four to finish in top spot.

    Four of those six group games had two goals or less and their aim this evening will be to keep in the tie before the return in Colombia. I can see them playing relatively cautiously and that should mean there is a good chance of it being a low scoring affair.

    Recommended Multiple
    Back HB Koge @ 1.9 (10/11); Back Libertad @ 1.61 (8/13); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Barcelona v Bayern Munich @ 1.53 (8/15); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Gremio v Santa Fe @ 1.66 (4/6); The Multiple pays approximately 7.88 (7/1)

    Recommended Multiple:

    Back HB Koge @ 1.9 (10/11)

    DENMARK: 1st Division
    Koge 2-0 Bronshoj

    Back Libertad @ 1.61 (8/13)

    PARAGUAY: Primera Division – Apertura
    Sp. Luqueno 0-3 Libertad

    Back Over 2.5 Goals in Barcelona v Bayern Munich @ 1.53 (8/15)

    EUROPE: Champions League
    Barcelona 0-3 Bayern

    Back Under 2.5 Goals in Gremio v Santa Fe @ 1.66 (4/6)

    23:30 KICK OFF

    The Multiple pays approximately 7.88 (7/1)


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