BARCELONA have a mountain to climb at the Nou Camp tonight and I'm not sure they can do it – but there will be plenty of goals between them and Bayern Munich.
Barcelona trail 4-0 after being on the end of a footballing master classat the Allianz Arena. The Germans completely nullified the Spaniards A game and as we've come to learn with Barca they don't have much of a plan B.
Lionel Messi was completely ineffective but to be fair to the Argentine striker he clearly wasn't fully fit and after eight days of recuperation should present more of a threat to the Bayern defence this evening.
Tito Vilanova has injury and suspension headaches at the back though so it's hard to see them keeping a clean sheet – meaning they will need to score six themselves to progress. Jordi Alba and Javier Mascherano will be missing and Gerard Pique isn't in the best of form.
Bayern will have learned from their last-16 tie with Arsenal about how to play the second leg with a commanding lead. Manager Jupp Heynckes won't let his players forget what happened in Germany against the Gunners and I'm sure he will send out his side with the message to score a goal.
The Munich defence has been exceptional in large parts this season but I can't see them keeping Barcelona out for 90 minutes. Mario Mandzukic should return to replace Mario Gomez and the Croatian striker has been exceptional since his move from Wolfsburg.
Barcelona have to go for it from the off and if they can score an early goal then anything is possible. Bayern will be deadly on the break – especially the pace of Arjen Robben – and I just can't see how this Barcelona defence will cope. That's why, with under 3.5 goals trading around the 1.79 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Barcelona v Bayern Munich @ 1.79