LAST week was all about some weird and wonderful teams – but the obscure are becoming less obscure.
Now when I look at Sunday's lower-league games I recognise names such as Novara, Sassuolo, Spezia and Alcorcon.
Novara were one of the sides who did site regulars a turn with victory at Varese and they face Ascoli at home in Serie B.
An undefeated run of seven games has pushed Novara up the table and they should be too good for a struggling Ascoli side with two victories in 10 and a 3-0 defeat at home to lowly Reggina last time out.
So now to the sausage men of Sassuolo. The runaway leaders are 32 points clear of opponents Ternana and looking forward to joining the big guns in Serie A.
They have won six and drawn one of their last eight and can take another step to the title with three points.
Videoton were another side well backed here last week to win and to produce more than 2.5 goals in their Hungarian Cup tie with Pecs. The sides meet again in Pecs days after that 3-1 result and over 2.5 goals is 9-10 at BetVictor. Three of the four goals in the last meeting came early on so look at sportingbet's 21-10 on the first being the highest-scoring half.
Another game that could be high scoring is the Irish league clash between Drogheda and Bray. Six of their last seven meetings have gone over 2.5 goals so take this to be a seventh.
As usual be free to add your own suggestions and I might trawl for some more tips in the morning.
Double up
Novara (2pm)
Sassuolo (2pm)
Pays a biggest £25.50 to a £10 stake at BetVictor
Over 2.5 goals double
Drogheda v Bray (3pm)
Pecs v Videoton (5pm)
Pays a biggest £34.40 to a £10 stake at bet365
In December 2020 we sadly 
Aalst V Oostende / OOSTENDE WIN @ 10/11
Thrasivoulos V AEL Larissa / LARISSA WIN @ 4/6
Vicenza V Varese / VARESE @ 6/4
Villarreal V Huelva / VILLARREAL WIN @ 4/7
Milesey
Shelbourne v Shamrock Rovers, another dublin derby and between 2 decent teams…these lower league teams are pretty decent for in play bets
John, I looked at backing Shamrock but thought they were too short at around 1-2. What do you think?
Couple of good picks for Sunday here.
11:00
Poland 1 Liga
Termalica B-B. v Tychy
Termalica B-B. @ 7/10
Over 2.5 @ Evs
Ecuador Seria A First Stage
17:00
U Catolica v Barcelona SC
U Catolica @ 7/5
Termalica B-B down 1-0….32mins played need a turnaround
Termalica B-B 0-1 HT
12 shots, 1 on target, need 2 goals in the 2nd half
Treble – MouscronPeruwelz – Caen – Panaitolikos
Belgian Double – Woluwe – Borinage
Single – Verona -1
Both 2 Score
Dessel v SintTruiden
Adanaspor v Boluspor
Reggina v JuveStabia
Sabadell v Las Palmas
Anytime Goalscorer Treble
Charles (Almeria)
Oriol (Alcorcon)
Paulinho (Livorno)
AFRICA: World Cup – Qualification – Second stage
Treble – Ethiopia – Congo – Ghana
that’s strange I put the goalscorers treble in there because the 3 players were there respective clubs top scorers according to flash scores top scorers tab just had a look at odds checker to find the best price and not one bookies is giving odds for any of the 3 players
Danny, oddschecker are pretty good but sometimes they don’t have prices listed for all markets, especially if only a handful of bookies are doing them. I’d check with firms that usually takes the bets just in case they have them priced.
Paul just had a wee look there at the only 2 I have money in William Hill and bet365 nothing doing knowing my recent bad luck the 3 of them will all score first
if i wanted to know if a player was injured for an upcoming serie B match what would be the best website for that?? cheers
http://www.betinf.com/italy_injured.htm
http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en/serie-b/verletzt/wettbewerb_IT2.html
ANY of these two help ?
Milesey
Yeah thats great. I wanted to know if bari top striker was injured or not, before taking empoli at home..
Doubles for the day
Las palmas btts
Cork city btts
Doubles win
Alcorcon win
Adanaspor win
Over 2.5 doubles
Sassoulo
Videoton
What about DR Congo?
Oostende
Mouscron peruwelz
Brescia
Livorno
Sassuolo
only concern would be Livorno mate they are normally very good at home but in there last 5 they have w1 d2 l2 and that Lanciano mobs last 10 away have seen them l2 w2 d6 should be ok but with Livorno looking to pick up some good form that will see them automatically promoted
Wrexham 6/4 looks a big price . grimsby on a bad run at the min. its live on sc4
Wrexham are normally good for btts and its a cup game so probably will have both teams to score, thoughts chaps?
An early treble just for interest:
Tampines Rovers @ 1.33
Balestier Khalasa Over 2.5 goals @ 1.53
Real Madrid Castilla BTTS @ 1.57
Not a great deal of confidence in it so just small stakes.
Jwood .. wat sc4?
Danny going with they five was thinking of adding Wrexham the day mate think they should be ok
There’s a decent Seria B treble with Novara and Sassoulo if you add Verona homome to Crotona.
Verona are second in league overall and have the second best home record
P 15 W 9 /D 4 / L 2 F 21 A9
Crotona away are 20th out of 22 with equal worst goals against
P 16 W 2 / D 5 / L 9 F 11 A28
Looks solid, around 1.5 payout.
The UHT, obviously I’ve tipped up Novara and Sassuolo and added Verona into a treble on my way back from the football. Novare and Verona both cut by Hills – good sign but for the poor punter backing them.
Verona just gone 2-0 down after an hour…
Sessoula will come through, but that’s hard to take when you’re watching the update and GOAL!! and… ah, f – it’s for Crotone.
What?
Verona now 3-2 up!
That was 5 minutes… That NEVER happens! Come on, Sessuolo!
Steve…sc4….Welsh tv channel sky134 virgin 167 freesat 120.. u can use the red button to change it to english comentry.
Not a football post but where’s the sporting integrity in F1? Red bull drivers Webber and Vettel were occupying the first 2 places in the GP and the team gave out orders too manage the drivers and keep the race positions the same. Webber slows it down too manage the tyres too the end of the race and Vettel ignores it and steams by him too win the GP. This sport is a joke and all wrong. Could you imagine the uproar if the 2 leading horses in the National we’re from the same owner and the leader was told too slow down too let the 2nd place take the race? F1 is crooked and doesn’t allow the best man too win
Mr H, at the end of the day F1 is both an individual and team sport so I can undertstand the instructions even though it doesn’t make for drama. Same thing happened last week when Di Resta was told not to try to overtake his team-mate and I think the fear is they’ll take each other out and deny the team a few points. It’s not new in F1 but it’s not crooked to do it, it’s just the way it is when you have team orders.
Cheers Jwood … tempted to bak Wrexham?
Tanzania v Morocco – Tanzania win @3.40 on W.H…
great tip on tanzania, 3-0!!
Bixie, that was a good one, not sure who put it up. And also well done to whoever pointed out Tampines, a team I’d never heard of before last week. I had a little dabble on them and that’s two out of two for the terrific Tampines (Singapore, of course).
TODAYS DOUBLE
SASSUOLO 4/9
VILLAREAL 8/15
DOUBLE PAYS EVENS
Plenty of time Bayo. Their so on top they’ve got it in them. They’ve scored 11 goal in their last 3 home games and 8 of those goals come in the second half. Last game they won 3-0 at home all 3 goals came in the second half. Fingers crossed!
They are 15/4 in-play on Bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 5/4. They’re already on a double I have with Madrid B over 2.5 goals. Since the Madrid bet is already in, a Termalica win would be the ideal start to the morning!
treble on the gaelic …
Kildare v Tyrone
Tyrone- 11/10
Mayo v Donegal
Donegal 21/20
Louth v Derry
Derry- 4/5
just under 8/1
Termalica B-B down 0-2 WTF…
Termalica B-B down 0-3… conceded 2 goals in one minute….shouldn’t have follow this pick…
Ouch! Had them in a double and got on them at HT. At least the over 2.5 goals pick covered my arse a bit :D
1-3 now but too little too late!
Went terribly wrong there lol the at least the higher odds over 2.5 come up. Jumped on over 3.5 too at HT so still up.
ITALY: Lega Pro C1/A
2nd 4th and 5th are all in action at 13.30 and will look to further distance themselves from the chasing pack to gain promotion to serie b without too many end of season dramas
Trapani and Entella 2nd and 4th looks like a comfortable double at home short around the 1.8/1 mark but if you add in 5th place Capri away to dire bottom of the table club Treviso it makes for a tasty treble around the 6/1 mark safe bet would be the double as Capri don’t have the killer instinct away from home
anybody on that treble would have been sweating Trapani 95th minute penalty and Entella had about 10 minutes injury time
Bayo it’s easy to say that after lol it is football I suppose shocks happen. Over 2.5 still up.
Rwanda
v
Mali
mali 5/4 look tempting
Rwanda v Mali
Mali
Match Result
5/4
. .
Cork City v Derry
Cork City
Match Result
29/20
. .
Shelbourne v Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
Match Result
4/9
on this as well gl betting
Yet another frustrating morning. Decided not to go with my Aussie double and of course it would have won. Then change my from overs on the Real Madrid game to BTTS and Balestier draw no bet (can’t believe they were 2/1 for the win on Stan James) to overs. Just typical of my luck at the moment. I think for the rest of the day I’ll just follow some of the bets others are posting.
Chicago Fire vs Chivas (9:00pm)
Chicago Fire have had a horrible start to the season, losing 2 of the first 3 games, drawing the other and not scoring any goals yet.
Playing Chivas who defeated FC Dallas, picked up a respectable draw at LA Galaxy and lost the opening game.
Chivas are 4/1 to win tonight at William Hill. Could be a good single.
Draw No Bet is 5/2. Chivas to keep a clean sheet is 17/5.
Trapani @ 1.533
(Match Betting)
Gubbio @ 1.727
(Match Betting)
White Star Woluwe @ 1.600
(Match Betting)
Villarreal @ 1.500
(Match Betting)
Multiple Type: 4 fold
Stake: 10.00
Possible Return: 63.54
not looking good in Belgium with postponed game
Mali 6/5 (in-play)
Novara 8/15
Wrexham 6/4
Treble 84.33 from 10
Crooked is maybe a tad strong but where’s the integrity in allowing drivers too overtake team mates without a fight? And any punter that had a bet on Webber won’t recognise the bollox about team orders even though the orders were for Vettel not too overtake.
In my opinion it’s not a fair sport for gambling when finishing orders between 2 drivers can be pre-arranged before a wheel has turned
What about Hamilton pulling into the MacLaren pits during the race lol
Mr H, punters should be aware of it by now because team orders have been in placed for years. I don’t necessary agree with it but I understand it. At the end of the day winning the constructors championship is more important for the team than the drivers championship. So it’s a bit tricky when you have a team prize and individual one at the same time. Happens in events such as Tour de France as well when points are up for grabs and again the teams overall wans to do well.
Not a fan of motor sport…coodna tell ya who did what/bores me to tears….however, perhaps the way for betting purposes is to do a Pari-mutual n couple the teammates together so the “crookedness” dunt affect the punting result?
A pretty quiet day in the uk, with the League 1 game between Tranmere vs Stevenage followed my an intruging clash between Hull KR VS Castleford in the super league. On the face of it Tranmere vs Stevenage looks a draw but Stevenage havent had a draw in their last 19 games.It may be wise to play on the unders 2.5 goals. If there are goals in the game they could come from Akpa-Akpro 17/10 anytime and Lopez 27/10 anytime.
TOP TREBLE
Novara
Sassuolo
Villarreal
SUPER SINGLE
Lopez to score anytime
BONKERS BET
Tranmere 2 Stevenage 1
Good luck if your having a bet
Grimsby-Wrexham
I wreckon its a toss up between Andy Cook and Danny Wright to break the deadlock
Cook Grimsby – 9/1 William Hill
Wright Wrexham – 6/1 bet365
Anytime Prices
Cook – 10/3 William Hill
Wright – 15/8 bet365
Ormerod Wrexham – 12/5 bet365
Hannah Grimsby – 15/8 bet365
I had ta pines on bet fair but theyut up the wrong name for away team so bet was voided :(
DM, that’s a bummer. One to take up with Milesey, Mr Betfair.
There is a thread going on the betfair forum but nothing from bet fair cs as yet
Yes Mali just scored!! 1-1
Yes 2-1 Mali!!
Verona have just scored 3 goals in 7 mins!!’ Up 3-2 unbelievable lol
Have a look at the stats for Empoli.
In 32 matches either Empoli or/and their opponents have scored more than 1.5 goals in the match 35 times.
Today’s odds for that to happen are 1,20.
2,00 for Empoli to score more than 1.5 and 3,00 for Bari to score a minimum of 2 goals in the match. 60% of your stake on Empoli over 1.5 and 40% on Bari over 1.5 goals in the match will give you a 20% profit if one of the teams score more than 1 goal AND 140% if both score twice or more.
They met earlier in season where Empoli won … 3-2.
The Dane.
The Dane, I’ll have a go later if my earlier over 2.5 double comes in.
Congrats to the late goal in the Videoton game and a nice double :-)
The Dane.
Went with Tampine Rovers, Novara, Livorno and Sassuolo. Sadly Sassuolo is messing everything up right now.
Visualiza, Sassuolo a letdown, good result for Novara though.
Waitin on Wrexham for my Mali/novara treble!
sassuolo let down livorno verona novara and villareal
does ANYBODY here actually make a consistent profit or ye all just losing money and breaking even?
John biy, I’d suggest those who do mainly singles and doubles will make money. People playing bigger accas for smaller stakes will lose.
Sassuolo, brescia, wasted 4 fold bad days
John I have to say, I personally lose money. Not huge amounts but still end up down each month. Even when following tips I always seem to pick the wrong ones to follow so I’m giving up on the football and horses now and sticking to US sports where I make my profit
Aww 1-0 Grimsby sickner
I’ve bided my time today and dodged a bullet with Sassuolo, although I missed out on Tampine earlier. Plumped for Villareal,Elche,Alcorcon and Empoli later
John I think it depends on your strategy. I am currently following a system whereby I only place lay bets on the match odds market and I’m running at a 95% strike rate which gives me an average of 35% increase on my weekly starting bank, not had many bets this weekend though as I find the smaller leagues are less predictable
Mr H I have been eyeing the exact same how confident are you lol :)
sassuolo mustve cropped a few bets
my big gripe today was in etniki b, for t3rd set of fixtures my btnts and under 2.5 bets has been ruined by late goals in the later kick off match. i shot from £88 to zero today, £440 to £125 last week and £60 to nowt the week before!!
no wonder their economy’s up the creek if its owt like their football, ie dull and corrupt!!
Some help please. I have 7 from 8 fold up for £120 return. Need Caen to beat istres tonight. How should I cover this please ?
If you have Bet365, you could back Double Chance (Istres or draw ) @ 2.6 currently so £46 would return you £119.60 if Istres get a draw or win.
Essentially, you would get a £73.60 profit if Istres win or draw or £74 profit if Caen wins.
Alternatively, you could ‘lay’ Caen on Betfair.
By the way: Other people will have their own views but Istres + 1 European is evens or over in most places so sticking £60 on that should guarantee you £60 either way. Or you may wish to take a chance and lower your stake guaranteeing less but with the chance to win more.
Alternatively, you could sweat it out and hope Caen wins :D
Or else you could consolidate if Caen take the lead.
its definitely not easy i know, I have patiently turned 15euro into 200 in a month following tips on this site…then I up my stakes I back a few teams @1.5 and they lose very frustrating.
I managed to back 2 of 3 Iceland League Cup games. The one I missed (thought it was on later) has had 5 goals in the first half while the game I went big on has had 0 goals in the first half.
Pretty confident DM. The 3 Spanish teams have great home records and have suffered only 1 loss each at home this season and are all up against lowly opposition. Empoli would be my weakest of the 4 selections but they sit top of the leagues form table and have lost just in 18 league outings. Bari have decent results in the last 4 but previously too that they had just one win in 12.
Bytheway I’d sit tight and go with your bet without covering it. Caen should take care of a poor Istres side and I’d back them on the handicap to cover -1 but that’s just my opinion
Cracking Friday and Saturday; today’s been a bit slower. Managed to call Tanzania, so I’m pretty chuffed with be able to contribute something, as opposed to just copping all your tips. I’m going wind up the weekend with this:
£40 Empoli v Bari over 2.5 goals @ 1.95
£20 Empoli v Bari over 3.5 goals @ 3.40
£10 Empoli v Bari over 4.5 goals @ 7.00
only need 2.5% to put me in profit, albeit £8 profit, and I can’t see that being too much of an issue, least I hope not….
Best of luck.
Ok so I’m thinking if draw no bet is 2.6 and my initial stake was £5 on the 8 fold then even taking mr h at his word that Caen will do the business
Put on modest £20 returns £52 still doubling my initial £5 ?
Or am I missing something ?
Videoton 1-0 down to Pecsi 11/4 only 22 mins gone worth a punt ?
DM, Do you place your lays in play or before kick off? what type of odds do you lay at?
Decent double in Spain in half an hour…
Go for Elche HW x Villareal HW
Home form of Elche is best of all 22 teams in the Spanish 2nd
P 14 W 12 D 1 L 1 F 28 A 8
That’s pretty strong!
Away form of Murcia is 19th of all teams
P 15 W 3 D 2 L 10 F 18 A 28
Home win pays 1.55
You don’t get such good odds for Villareal.
5th best home record in league
P 14 W 9 D 4 L 1 F 26 A 10
Away form of Recreativo Huelva is 15th of all teams
P 15 W 4 D 2 L 9 F 14 A 27
Home win pays 1.49
Double will double up your stake + pennies.
Villarreal @ 1.450
(Match Betting)
Elche @ 1.571
(Match Betting)
Caen @ 1.500
(Match Betting)
Stake: 10.00
Possible Return: 34.17
what are these reasons behind backing caen?, lol..surely there jus as bad as istres!..im lookin for a team to add to my 4fold of ponte preta/villareal/empoli and elche
PartTime, don’t add teams for the sake of it.
Part time punter 4 is more than enough for an Accra. If your having too search for another selection then what’s the point of picking a 5th for the sake of it
How can they be as bad as Istres when they sit 5th and 14 points better off. Plus they have the best defence in the division. Istres have failed too score in their last 3 away games
Villarreal @ elche are both 1/2 in shop hills
lookin for more value as villareal are short, iv backed dem before and they have failed to deliver a number of times, bt with that insight that uv jus given me then i see why some may want to back it now..i was jus curious as i wasnt seein anythin to back it up, thnks mr H
Today has been one of my lowest volume betting days and also one of my worst. Been stung badly on two games where I thought there would be goals. The games I didn’t choose had 9 goals and 7 goals, one of those days. 20% of my entire account gone in a slow day is a sore one to be sure.
Rick, doesn’t make sense. “Lowest volume betting days” but 20 per cent account gone!
Mr F, perhaps Rick is referring to the quantity of bets is far less than normal but his stakes are heavier hence the betting bank being hit harder?
Mr. F, what I meant was that I’ve bet a lower total amount of money today than normal but lost almost every bet so I’m way down! Typically, I’ll pick quite a few winning bets even on a poor-ish day (Some of them come after following your tips :).
That said, Videoton’s last goal got me back a sliver! Here’s hoping the Empoli game has over 2.5 goals!
Rick, an unusually bad day for me too. Pretty much every selection I have made today has been a disaster!
I think I need to lay any of my normal backing selections for the remainder of today…lol
Looks like videoton not bothered about scoring and just sitting deep and defending their aggregate lead
Striker, just scored!
super single lads worth a 20 pound note lad im on it.
John I only lay draws, usually pre ko at odds between 4 – 10. There is not huge value but with a good strike rate and volume it works. Hurts when you get a draw tho
Gotta love VIDEOTON!!
Lovely…Videoton`s second. A little bit of success today at last!
They were 12/1 to win when I said they weren’t interested in scoring, now they’ve gone and won it, lol. Happy the 2.5 came in :)
might try it out! i tryed laying horses for a while, what a disaster!…
videoton have just snatched the win :)
Why was it a disaster ? i earn so much money backing to lay , horses and football, and just playing the market too, backing high, and laying low, it’s so simple and easy to make a nice profit everyday.
Milesey
And with my last bet of the day Villareal have decided I’m not allowed any wins
On the Verona principle of earlier on, I’m hoping that reporting Villareal have gone 1-0 behind means when I switch back, they’ll be 2-1 in front.
Nope
:D Was worth a try!
milesey,I just seemed to be laying the winner every few races always laying under 5.0, i started backing them recently and seem to be alot better at picking winners!
have you any advice for me on how to do it? (make money everyday!)
Lay Betting
Lay betting is quite simply betting on an outcome you think will not happen.
In football this is a new and increasingly profitable area for punters to take advantage of. Many tipsters now provide football betting tips advising to back against (laying) a team from winning, or in some instances backing against or ‘laying’ the draw as they believe either side will win instead of the match finishing all square.
Lay betting is also particularly popular in horse racing as it is often much easier to lay or bet against a horse than selecting the winning runner and rider.
Lay Betting Explained
Lay betting is common on betting exchanges and works when two punters have opposing views. When odds are agreed this then becomes a matched bet. The odds therefore that punters are willing to bet on are usually much higher than traditional bookmakers and betting exchanges notoriously have better odds
take an example of an English Premier League match between Manchester United and Liverpool:
If you want to make £10.00 and think Manchester United will not win (i.e. Liverpool win or a draw) then the best price in which to lay Manchester United is at 2.05. If the match ends in a draw or a Liverpool victory then you will win £10.00, but if Manchester United win then your loss or liability will be £10.50.
If you think Liverpool will not win (Manchester United win or draw) then the best price in which to lay Liverpool is 3.70. If the match ends in either a Manchester United victory or a draw then you will win £10.00. If Liverpool win then your potential loss and liability is £37.00 as this is a much more unlikely result and outcome.
Lay Betting Explained – ‘Trading’ for a Guaranteed Profit
One of the advantages of lay betting and betting exchanges is the potential to guarantee a profit through back-lay sports arbitrage. This involves betting on both outcomes (backing and laying) so that your total liability or loss is less than your total return or profit. This can occur as individuals have varying opinions and thus odds on a result or outcome. Differences in odds may also be brought about by a number of factors such as team news, injuries, suspensions and the starting eleven.
Lay betting can also be used as part of a long term betting strategy. For example, Everton traditionally finish the Premier League season strongly and usually achieve a top half finish. Backing Everton to achieve a top half finish whilst their odds are higher when they are in the bottom half of the Premier League table early in the season and then laying Everton when they have climbed up the table and are more assured of a top half finish should also guarantee punters a profit.
Lay betting can also work on in play betting markets. For example having backed Arsenal prior to kick off in the game against Newcastle in the 2010/2011 Premier League season, Arsenal found themselves 4-0 up away at St James Park. Laying the Arsenal win might and could have guaranteed many punters a guaranteed profit with the right stake levels as anything other than an Arsenal win seemed extremely unlikely. Newcastle famously came back and drew the game 4-4.
Many sportsbooks now offer ‘Draw No Bet’ and ‘Double Chance’ markets as an alternative to lay betting.
Milesey ( betfair )
If you have time then play the market, your looking to back something high that you think, believe will shorten up, so you back it at say 8.6 in the hope that it will come into say 3.4, so you back it at 8.6 and then lay at 3.4 therefore making a profit, you can do this the other way round also, so you put in a lay of say 1.78 on a short priced favourite, but you think this price will drift, it drifts out to 3.2 and then you put in your back, you always BACK HIGH, AND LAY LOW. The best place to look is in papers, racing post, on the morning line , racing channels at what they are tipping, i get the racing post online and comes through around 10pm for the next day, therefore i can look through at what they have tipped and get my backs in on their tips, for i know come the next day these prices will shorten up, they always do and hasn’t failed me yet.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Your laying at 5.0 what is alittle too high for me to be honest, if laying a horse i like to lay as low as possible, so looking for short priced favourites, and then looking at form, weights, distances, looking at previous runs as a guide. It may be a horse on a 5 timer, you can lay it at 1.48, but could have gone up by 25 in the weights, yes you have to have alook at the rest of the field for there may not be touch in it that can beat the horse even with the extra weight on board, but when the handicappers hit a horse in a big way like this is normally puts an end to it’s winning streak, especially on say heavy ground, over 3m, you have to do your homework, but you want to LAY as low as you possibly can, there are always ways out if it looks like it’s going wrong to minimise your loses, or if a favourite is too short priced but you think it will win anyway, watch it inplay, especially if you knew the horse, it may be ridden from the back to come to the front near the end, therefore you will see an increase inplay, i hit my backs inplay at 101 to insure that these get on, for with the delay the horse i am trying to back could be starting to move up and the odds are changing all the time, it’s not like football, we are talking 3 minutes, odds are changing all the time, you want to get your bet on so 101 is what i will always hit at inplay to insure it gets on, i won’t get it so low, i may get 2.8, 3.6 anything….. i am putting in at 101 to get the bet on, no point seeing something at 6.4 and trying to get on that price, for the time it takes to go through it will come back telling you that the odds are changed and your bet will not be placed.
Milesey ( betfair )
Villareal 1-1 Huelva :(
I’m not placing any bets tonight as it seems like an unpredictable day
Sassuolo a let down, again. They let me down for £125 in the previous game by conceding in the last minute.
But the team Sassuolo were playing (Ternana) haven’t conceded for 4 games now, so I might have a look at them next time.
Bari have had a man sent off. This actually isn’t good for over 2.5 goals as they will be putting everyone behind the ball to survive.
I think I’m going to give this all up, or at least change my strategy when It comes to betting because what I’m doing clearly isn’t working.
I’m sure I’m not the only one on here who is struggling to win bets, however I’m sure BetVictor are happy to have me on their books since I opened an account with them on Saturday Morning.
I’ve placed six bets, and I haven’t won any. I have been close on one or two but miles out on others.
On Saturday I had a five fold, which admittedly is unlikely to come in no matter how many so called ‘bankers’ are on your line. Partick, Brechin and Altrincham won, only for Newport to lose at Stockport and Coventry to lose at Pompey.
My treble of Belgium, Montenegro and Sweden to win looked promising, but the latter failed to put the ball in the net
Last night, I was on highly fancied Barcelona B and Turkish outfit Manisaspor. Both failed to win their games despite being strong favourites.
I use so many different resources to find the best picks, including BetVirus, Betdevil, SoccerVista, Soccerway, Soccerh2h and many more, but it all seems to be in vain.
Dean, there are no guarantees. Keep doing your homework and keep selections to a minimum.
Dean, first of all, you need to stop doing fivefolds. I hardly ever have more than a treble and stick to doubles and singles. The tips on this site from Mr. F, Milesey and a couple of other lads are rock solid and you’ll notice they rarely go above the treble mark. You’ll also notice that Bounty Punter deals in singles.
I’m having an appalling day today but the last week has been much better overall because I have bet on singles/doubles a lot. The rewards may not be as inviting but you’ll be more likely to make a profit overall.
Trixies are also worth looking into (pick 3 teams for a total of 4 bets [3 doubles and a treble) because you can still make a slight profit or at least win most of your stake back if one team messes up.
I’d also above accumulators on the English leagues like the plague! Just my 2 cents mate.
‘Above’ should be Avoid!
Thanks for the advice lads. I think I’m making the right selections but I need to stick to singles, doubles and trixies.
TWO Big singles for me tonight, my only two big big bets of the day.
VENEZUELA: Primera Division – Clausura
Zamora V Yaracuyanos
ZAMORA WIN @ 1/2
1 Rosario Central
Atlético Tucumán v Rosario Central
(Full Time Result)
24/03/2013
None
5/4
To Run
Milesey
………..and one for tomorrow
3PM K/O
RUSSIA: Division 1
Yaroslavl V Tomsk
TOMSK WIN @ 6/5
and this will be the only football bet for me tomorrow, football on monday looks very poor, but hopefully i have picked out alittle Gem here with nice odds ;) ;)
Milesey ( betfair )
Mr F what did we do last time, PALMEIRAS CORNERS ? had alittle mess about on the game just finished with Santos on the corners, PALMEIRAS 10 SANTOS 5 Corners, so all little bets i did came in. So i’d like to thank Bounty Punter for bringing PALMEIRAS to my attention for tonight they did love a corner and all bets, only small, but they all came in.
Milesey
ENGLAND V MONTENEGRO
——————–
In a job well done against the part-timers of San Marino, England accounted for Friday night’s opponents with minimal fuss and now look ahead to Tuesday night’s showdown with a far more dangerous foe.
Roy Hodgson’s men remain two points behind Montenegro, who secured a 0-1 win over Moldova in pretty trying circumstances after being reduced to ten men when midfielder Milorad Pekovic was dismissed. The scorer of that winner was Juventus’ Mirko Vucinic, a striker of decent pedigree whose time at Juventus was preceded by five seasons at Roma, the last of which convinced the Old Lady to part with 15m Euros for his services. His goalscoring record almost touches one in two and he will be ably aided and abetted by Fiorentina’s Stevan Jovetic, one of Serie A’s superstar performers who is perfectly capable of putting England’s backline to the sword on his day.
Montenegro were drawn in the same qualifying group as England for Euro 2012 and England failed to beat them both home and away. A 0-0 draw at Wembley was followed by a stalemate in Podgorica as the Three Lions were pegged back after going 0-2 ahead, the game eventually finishing 2-2 after Wayne Rooney’s petulant sending off was followed by an injury time equaliser from Rayo Vallecano’s Andrija Delibasic.
England only needed a point from that final game to progress to Euro 2012, but they will certainly need more than that on Tuesday. I think a confident England have enough to overcome a pretty handy Montenegrin side, but a loss of personnel at the back is a concern. The aforementioned Vucinic and Jovetic can threaten a centre back pairing of Lescott and Smalling, who have just 20 Premier League starts between them this season. Indeed, San Marino presented the first time they had ever played together, so the midfield players selected in front of them will need to take responsibility for forwards dropping deep. The recall of captain Steven Gerrard will be a boost, as these days he eschews the lung-busting box to box bluster of yesteryear and looks to dictate play from deeper while providing an outlet for the inexperienced centre halves.
The team Hodgson selects must maintain their focus and discipline for this game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Danny Welbeck recalled to run the channels, hold the ball up and add more frontline energy to the side, something he does with aplomb at Manchester United. With him as a busy out ball, he can bring others into play and England can look to hurt Montenegro that way.
Recommended Bet
England look a bit short at 1.82 to win in Podgorica; Branko Brnovic has built a capable team around two match-winners in the shape of Jovetic and Vucinic who could certainly stop England, especially at home. I’d much rather go for both teams to score, which is currently trading at 2.07. I think England will nick it, probably 1-2 or 1-3, and if you’re feeling brave, prices for that are 10.0 and 19.5 respectively.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Milesey,my eyes lit up when i read that I think your technique on trading and is brilliant definitely going to give it a go, do you post up the horses you back high lay low? or is that just making it to easy for me :)
That wouldn’t be possible to do i’m affraid for it’s all about keeping your eye on the ball, the time i have posted something on here the market could have changed in a massive way, it’s about looking out, another factor could be the jockey, be it Ruby, AP, Frankie, they will always get the money in no matter what their rides are, just play the market, minimum stakes and see how it developes for you, if you can make a profit, and can keep it going over a period then look to raise your stakes, but just start simple, just start with the racing post or look at whats been tipped in a daily paper, take 5 races and just stick with them, makesure you have plenty of time when the first race finishes to look through your next race, around 20 minutes is good enough to be able to watch the market and see what it’s doing, you get big changes in the last 5 minutes before a race is off, you have to think to yourself how that market is going to play out, there is a short priced favourite, then money is going to come for the next 2/3 in the market as people look for value.
Start out how you wish, minimum stakes, and take out 5 races for the day, 20 minutes apart is a good way, then you have time to watch what the market is doing. When, WHEN you get the hang of it, then raise the stakes and take on more races, on a good day 20 races, big stakes, you can earn a nice amount of money and this is regardless of the result, for your playing the market, if you get a few winners in too then that is a big added bonus, but your playing the market just like a stock exchange.
Milesey ( betfair )
ALWAYS REMEMBER:
BACK HIGH / LAY LOW
If you get in trouble and the market isn’t doing what you thought it would then get out of it, get in your lay or back, and keep your loss down to a minimum.
Milesey
Arbitrage
Basically, the idea behind Arbitrage is to buy at a low price and sell at a high one.
The application in Horse Racing (or any other betting proposition) is to Lay at low odds and Back at at high odds.
Naturally, things are a bit more complicated than that, and one of the issues is how much money to risk when backing and laying.
For example, say you back a horse to a stake of £100 at 3.00 (2/1 – in the rest of this page we’ll use Decimal odds).
Say you then lay the horse at 2.00, again for a stake of £100.
If the horse wins, the profit on your win bet is £200 and the loss on your lay bet is £100 – you’ve gained a net profit of £100.
If the horse loses, the loss on your win bet is £100 and the profit on your lay is £100 – you haven’t lost anything, but you haven’t gained anything either.
For many people this is perfectly satisfactory – after all you’ve had the chance to gain £100 for zero risk.
But, suppose in the foregoing example you had, as previously, backed the horse to a stake of £100 at 3.0, but then, when the horse was available to lay at 2.0 you had layed it for a stake of £150
Now, if the horse wins, the profit on your win bet is again £200 but the loss on your Lay bet is £150.
Your net profit is reduced to £50.
BUT, If the horse loses, the loss on your win bet is £100 but the profit on your lay bet is £150 – a net profit of £50.
So you make the same net profit whether the horse wins or loses.
Now that was an easy example using nice round figures, but suppose you’ve backed the horse to a £100 stake at 2.73 and you have the opportunity to lay it at 1.9.
How much should your Lay stake be to equalise your profit whether the horse wins or loses?
Well, there’s a formula:
Lay Stake = Back Stake * Back Odds / Lay Odds
So, in the example above, to equalise your profits whether the horse wins or loses, your Lay Stake should be:
100 * 2.73 / 1.9 = £ 143.68
and your net profit, whether the horse wins or loses, will be £43.68.
Similarly, if you’ve already Layed a horse (say £100 at 2.7), but now see an opportunity to back it at longer odds (say 3.3):
Back Stake = Lay Stake * Lay Odds / Back Odds
e.g: 100 * 2.7 / 3.3 = £81.82
for a guaranteed profit of £18.18
http://www.betcalc.com/backlaycalc.php
Definately looking at that Tom Tomsk game in the Russian 1st division, like yourself Milesey it will be my only game tomorrow, going to have an in play bet though so hopefully it stays 0-0 for a while :-)
Thanks for the advice, do you stop after you drift +1.0, seems like enough to get a good profit..
No one can answer questions like that but you, you will see the market and will do what you think/believe the market will do, do you think it will drift anymore, are you happy to put your back in at that price, yes it will be a profit, but you have to play it how you see it, there maybe alot of money coming in for others, so it may drift more, it’s what your happy with and the activity that is taking place on the market at the time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=832fLBc8PkI
Loads of videos on youtube some better then others, and also there are books out there.
Milesey
When your on it, it’s all very simple and easy to pick up, keep to minimum stakes, a profit is a profit, if your making a profit at the lower end, just think what you could be doing once you raise your stakes, but you want to get the hang of it first, when your on it , it will all become clear, it will go green, you will watch how the market is playing out.
Milesey ( BETFAIR )
Hi lads,
looking at the Russian League tomorrow and Ural look good although at around 6/10 not the biggest.
Both the U21’s games should roll in again at very short odds but the treble returns well over evens.
Don’t like a four-fold but tomorrow might be the day.
Ural
Tomsk
Belgium U21
Scotland U21
Carl, Ural and Tomsk look good things. I’ll need to have a closer at the U-21s.
Dean, as already said keep selections minimal. I keep a record of all my bets and helps you see where you are profiting. I do multiples on Stan James and Bet Fred but with my other accounts do singles only with staking strategy. The singles accounts are the ones that make the profit long term for me. The others fluctuate because although returns can be big they are very infrequent. But singles seem to grow my pot steadily each month.
Ural might be another decent team tomorrow, playing at 12pm.
Haven’t suffered a defeat in the league since September which was against the only team above them Tomsk. They haven’t conceded a goal in the league at home in the last 8 games.
They are priced at 4/7. Might double them with Tomsk. Those two teams are basically running away with the league at the moment anyway.
Andy, we know all about Ural after backing them last week. Probably be on it but will have a look in the morning.
93rd minute goal for Caen!!! Obviously never In any doubt
Bytheway, there were a few let goals that went our way including Caen and Videoton.
I was just looking at the Columbian game tonight between Pasto and Millonarios. The latter being possibly the most well known of the Columbian clubs. But looking at the stats Pasto have an incredible home record where they have only lost once in all competitions in their last 23 matches (possibly more if I could be bothered checking back further). They also hosted Millonarios in October and November beating them 3:1 both times. 2.40 for the home win on Bet365 so going to give it a bash.
Not the worst effort for such a limited card
Treble – MouscronPeruwelz – Caen – Panaitolikos
ITALY: Lega Pro C1/A
2nd 4th and 5th are all in action at 13.30 and will look to further distance themselves from the chasing pack to gain promotion to serie b without too many end of season dramas
Trapani and Entella 2nd and 4th looks like a comfortable double at home short around the 1.8/1 mark but if you add in 5th place Capri away to dire bottom of the table club Treviso it makes for a tasty treble around the 6/1 mark safe bet would be the double as Capri don’t have the killer instinct away from home
I wreckon its a toss up between Andy Cook and Danny Wright to break the deadlock
Cook Grimsby – 9/1 William Hill
Anytime Price
Cook – 10/3 William Hill
Danny, pretty good really. If you can make a profit on days like these you’re doing OK.
Paul please me make a profit lol the tips I put up are ones I feel should come up more often than not and will give people a good chance to win should they fancy any of them If I was to put up some of the mad 8fold accumulators a do you would have to ban me for being the worst possible contributor too the site
I wonder if betting on a bunch of 20 year old Czech lads would be considered a step two far when betting on these more obscure leagues lol
Mondays 4 Fold
Pribram U21
Hradec Kralove U21
Jablonec U21
Slavia Prague U21
Great start for Zamora as they go 1-0 up after 2 minutes.
2-0 Zamora
Cheers for the tip Milesey. Looking good so far
Mr F, reckon the brazil game will be over 2.5 goals tomorrow? and bts?
Dave, at first glance yes. Brazil were decent against Italy and should be even better while Russia will benefit froma not having to play Ireland today. Will have tips up in the morning.
Mr F, did you get an answer on my in play bet thing with WH?
Dave, still nothing, will try again. If you want email me a couple of comments to mrfixit@dailyrecord.co.uk and I’ll forward them directly to my contact.
Just having a look through tomorrows fixtures to try & pick out a bet or 2 for day 1 of the comp, not much to choose from but I’ll have a bet or 2 up once the thread appears
AL, good luck to you too. I see Steve’s in quick but says it’s his only bet of the day. Might change his mind later.
Both the U21’s games are qualifiers so will be taken very seriously as Belgium are at home to Cyprus and Scotland at home to the might of Luxemberg.
Can’t see anything other than both home teams winning and both will probably smash the -1 handicap although those odds are not avalible on will hill atm. Scotland should do a 4-5 nil job and from what iv seen in the stats Belgium will beat Cyprus easily although with Cyprus’s situation we should wonder if they can afford a flight in to the game.
Carl D, Scotland I’d say will win by three or more. Celtic’s Tony Watt is back in the squad and I’d take him to score if you can get a price.
Also mr f, I know there isn’t a feature on here for F1 and a brief chat earlier (when i was trying to avoid the result to watch the full replay GMT time!) but maybe for the future races a small area could be set up for some discussion. I have had both fastest race laps the last 2 weeks at 8/1 and 25/1 today with Perez, money to be had on such a tight market.
Also be good to hear off some other f1 fans! im off to the Belgium Gp in August too so any others up for a piss up can start making arangements, surely stella tastes better there!!!!
Carl D, we got try and see what the reaction is. I’m sure Milesey will give us some Betfair stuff that we could post to kick off a debate.
Good info on lay betting something I’m gonna try on flat season, the guy who mentioned bout change of strategy because he kept losing, I agree wiv the lads keep bets to trebles, I had 4 bets on the Wigan vs Widnes game 3 won did em as singles and permed em they weren’t biggest odds 1/2 6/4 6/5 but still get good returns, the odd bonkers bets and super single comes in all the better, aslong as u can make a profit even a small one that’s all the better.
Cheers Mr f, thanks for the amazing site and the unbelievable tips/regulars-characters/banter. Well and truly above any other iv seen.
Enough with the praise tho, lets get another profitable week underway!!
Carl D, we aim to please and there are some good contributors.
Speaking of bonkers bet I did desmond on the Brazil vs Italy game on Thurs, it could be same score tomoz, I fancy goals in that but will hav proper look in the morning. Ural were a team I never heard of until last week but be keen to see wat the lads think of their chances.
whats going on in this rosario game
Rosario 1 up, then 2-1 down, now 3-2, another rollercoaster ride lol. I agree lads singles doubles and trebles the way to go, I do a 10 team acca on the weekend but only for a couple of quid, needless to say I’m still waiting on my first 10 team win :-) one day lol
3-3 now lol
3-3 ht, 15 mins injury time first half?? Madness!
3 goals in injury time lol
Off to bed let’s hope it comes in :-)
Tip for the day is ht draw ft win for BRAZIL v russia
Sorry put on wrong 1 lol