JUST back in and had no phone since last night – the Sao Paulo game saw a stonking nine goals (7-2) so an easy winner on the Asian line but the later game was a dud at 2-0 … well done all winners.

The Welsh leagues are calling again this evening and they’ve been a consistent stomping ground of late – hopefully that trend will continue tonight as I carefully put on my best velcro gloves and creep down to Ceredigion.


Connah’s Quay are much the stronger side here and that shows in The Nomads' league position – top after 20 games and a goal difference bettered only by the mighty TNS.

Aber’s last two home matches were 2-0 defeats to Newtown and Cefn Druids – two teams Connah’s beat 2-1 and drew 1-1 respectively away from home within the last month or so and that gives a decent gauge of the quality difference between the two.

More tellingly, and in Aber’s defence, it’s the H2H that give more away in terms of possible outcomes. Over the last 4 years there have been 11 matches between these two with just a single one of those games where both teams didn't score. Eight of those 11 saw btts and overs land and 7 of them saw 4 or more match goals!

I’m taking on 3 selections here and it’s worth noting The Nomads have failed to keep a clean sheet in 100 per cent of their last 5 away games despite their decent form.

Recommended Bets

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Probably a foregone conclusion who should win this and Fluminense are as short as 1-10 in places so no value there!

Goals-wise there appears to be a bit of value with 5 or more fetching an attractive 7-4 but it’s another market that may offer the best way in; I’ve absolutely no stats to back it up but from last year’s tournament I have corners written in the notebook next to Fluminense Youth … hardly the concrete info you need but it may just a different angle with the majority of bigger sides not hitting their individual goal lines.

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