HOW many times have we said that big cards aren't always the best cards?
Yes, there's loads of choice but that doesn't necessarily mean that you home in on the games and markets that you maybe would on a smaller set of fixtures!
Sometimes, even with so much choice, you have to go with instinct and, despite being stung by the lack of goals midweek, I find myself gravitating, once again, towards the East Lancashire coast…
FYLDE VS. EBBSFLEET UNITED
Mill Farm's close proximity to Blackpool (or Heroin by the Sea as we used to call it) means that there's always going to be the opportunity to make donkey-related comparisons and whilst that would be a bit harsh on Rowe and co, they couldm't convert any of their many chances against Chorley on Tuesday night.
Yet, I just can't write Fylde off after one performance – they have way too much to offer and a visit by Ebbsfleet this afternoon could be just the tonic for The Coasters and Rowe to refind their shooting boots.
Ebbsfleet have already conceded 7 goals in their opening salvo; a 1-4 home defeat to Halifax was followed by Tuesday's 3-1 away tonking by Bromley and if Fylde can find their form and not f*ck it up then they could have a field day.
Previous H2H's have seen the hosts hit 2-3-1-3 team goals with three statistics standing out; firstly Danny Rowe scored in every one of those games; secondly, there were some high corner counts in the first 3 with totals of 13, 11 and 18; thirdly, there was a preponderence of late goals scored with at least one after the 80 minute mark in all 4 matches!
Late goals were certainly a feature of Flyde's matches throughout the 2018-19 campaign and both that and the high corner counts are indicative of their pressing game and possession and I can't help but wonder if there may be a bet-builder type punt based on the above?
- Fylde over 1.5 team goals
- (4/5, bet365) NAP
- Danny Rowe to score at anytime
- (10/11, bet365) NB
- Fylde over 1.5 team goals + Rowe to score + over 10 match corners + 2nd half highest scoring half
- (7/1, bet365 – Betbuilder)
Early post for any Night Owls out there…
SÃO PAULO VS. SANTOS (9.00pm):
I've had my eye on Santos for a while and they've obliged perfectly with my last two team goals bets netting 6 and 3 times in the process!
I just think the bookmakers are underestimating their form as they travel to Sao Paulo whose reputation precedes them – yes, they are a great side but, coupled with Santos' current form, H2H's have always seemed fairly close fought encounters.
In fact, of the last 26 H2H's played at Sao Paulo, Santos have only failed to score in 6 giving an ‘away goal success' rate of 77% – taking the analysis a step further, Santos have scored 2 or more goals in an impressive 15 of those 26 which equates to an ‘away brace success rate' of 58%…not too shabby a record!
Of all the South American Leagues, bookies have the best grip on the Brasilian top-flight so it's rare to see a pricing mismatch and, although this isn't necessarily an incorrect pricing, it does open up the back door for a bit of potential value:
- Santos goal before 67:00
- Santos over 1.5 team goals