TEMPTATION all over the place today with a great EPL card and the same further afield – I was attracted by btts in the Manchester derby and pulled in by Cerro Porteno goals in Paraguay but ultimately I find myself being drawn like a moth to a set of 1976 Bolivian floodlights.
Bolivar vs Nacional Potosi (8pm)
I think one of the reasons I enjoy betting in the Bolivian top flight is the fact that over the last 18 months, as the footballing power struggle in La Paz has dispersed and other teams have taken advantage, the bookies don’t appear to be consistently clued up in their pricing of games.
Where before it was always a two-horse race between Bolivar and The Strongest, now we see the emergence of teams like Wilstermann, Royal Pari and San Jose whose success appears to be clouding the bookies judgment. I love it and although there’s no guarantees I sense they’ve overpriced another game here.
No doubt about it, Bolivar are good – in fact at home they are very good. But they are not the side they once were and La Paz is not the stronghold it once was. In seasons gone by you could count on one hand the numbers of games in which Bolivar had conceded, a sign of the times then that 20 of their last consecutive 26 matches have failed to see a clean sheet!
Nacional are no mugs and are another of those sides waiting in the wings for their bit of Bolivian limelight. They actually humped Bolivar 6-1 in the last H2H and have scored in all but 4 of the 17 H2Hs that have taken place over the last 4 years.
More recently Nacional have hit a cracking bit of form and head into this on the back of six straight wins having scored 3-3-2-2-3-1 team goals in the process. Given the context and the fact they have netted in so many of those historic H2Hs I’m all over this with my only reticence being around the possibility of red cards.