JUST back from a lovely few days away in Berwick and Eyemouth – plenty of drinking, a bit of fishing but luckily no sign of the crabs that poor Craneguy is plagued by when he visits these remote coastal locations…
My first instinct when looking at today's card was to look into Afrika Reykjavik's game, they are potentially one of the worst form teams in world football and were the star of the recent pick which ended 17-0!
Alas,their opponents are GG who, themselves, are pretty damn poor so I'm not convinced it will be a rout – instead, I've picked out a team who I don't think deserve to be as big as 19/1 against their opponents
ÍH VS. LÉTTIR (9.00pm)
It's a tough call taking on a handicap bet at this level but I'm just not convinced IH justify such a big price as 365's 1/20 on, there's obviously some disparity as williamhill and paddypower have them at a much more reasonable 1/7 and 1/10…what that disparity does do is to crack open a potential angle for value!
Both sides occupy 3rd and 4th
positions in their divisional 4 Deild table with only 3 point separating them after their opening round of games – granted, IH have a game in hand and have a significantly higher g/d but then they notched 7 of those against the aforementioned Afrika!
The current standings aren't the only influencing factor here for me though, a look through recent seasonal form shows no significant historic gulf in the majority of H2Hs; scorelines of 1-2, 2-3, 4-3 and 1-1 demonstrate that IH may have won 3 of the last 4 but, more importantly, Lettir would have prevailed in 100% of these matches with a +2 handicap start!
Follow that line of thinking and it only backs up that initial doubt about the prices not reflecting both the current and historic picture, a look through the slim handicap markets on offer and the green light is potentially on for some hard-sought Icelandic value.
- LETTIR +3 ASIAN H/CAP
(1/1, bet365) NAP ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- LETTIR +2 H/CAP
(17/10, paddypower) NB ⭐