IT'S been a cracker of a weekend and hoping that luck holds into Sunday – there are two games I like the look of both in SA and both offer some potentially great value.
BOLÍVAR v ORIENTE PETROLERO (9pm)
I’ll start by saying this one represents plenty of risk as I oppose the bookies way up in the clouds of Bolivia’s capital city La Paz.
Along with The Strongest, Bolivar will always be one of the big two teams and have exerted their collective dominance much like Rangers and Celtic have in Scotland over the years – therefore that risk I mentioned is very real and is built up by reputation over time.
But here’s where there may be a chink in the bookies' armour. That reputation is a huge factor in driving prices – especially on home soil in La Paz – and rarely changes Bolivar’s odds-on favouritism while form is almost negligible as a result. This is where we can look to exploit their default favourites status.
So two things are in our favour here – firstly the fact Bolivar’s crown has slipped. I’ve mentioned several times this year they are not the force they once were and secondly Oriente have an interesting H2H history against the mighty Bolivar!
Let’s start with the latter – over the past 4 seasons the two sides have met on 15 occasions. You would assume Bolivar would have mullered them in the majority but haven’t – far from it in fact and they have won just 4!
Oriente have actually won 6 of those 15 games while the remaining 5 finished honours even. Put in a different way that means a little tickle against the giants either on DNB or the handicap markets would have gotten the green light in 73 per cent of the last 15 consecutive meetings between the two.
You can probably see my train of thought by now and it’s worth just looking at Bolivar’s recent form as they play host to Oriente who don’t forget sit above them in the Primera’s Clausara table.
Bolivar have lost their last 2 away from home and while home form is obviously stronger they have conceded in 5 of their last 7 showing their once bulletproof fortress up in the Andes is showing increasing signs of vulnerability.
History dictates a low scorer here and if I factor in my reasoning there are three selections that are worth exploring although the chance of an early red card is always a concern and has to to be factored in to stake sizes.
ORIENTE +2 (8-11, bet365)
ORIENTE +1 (9-4, bet365)
ORIENTE GOAL BEFORE 79mins (6-5, bet365)
UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA v COLO-COLO (4pm)
Can well see goals in this one with top side Catolica taking on the old warhorses of Colo Colo.
No sprawling write-up for this one but it’s ripe for both sides netting. Catolica are the slight favourites and form and paper say rightly so but Colo have never failed to score in every single one of the last 9 H2Hs.
BTTS & OVER 2.5 MGS (6-5, bet365)