NOT the best of days yesterday and looking towards the lower leagues for some potential value.
Sometimes you have to adapt your usual betting style to suit the game and last night was a perfect example where everything pointed to an unders game at Rochdale v Oldham – I flagged it but didn’t back it because it simply doesn’t suit how I like to bet.
But that’s s flaw on my part and although I much prefer going for numbers of goals if the value means going for fewer then that’s the way it should be!
A chance to prove my point (or possibly make a complete knob of myself) comes in the shape of a game hailing from the English Isthmian League this evening.
Lewes v Brightingsea Regent (7.45pm)
Lewes sit around 1-3 for the win here and while I can see the reasoning for the price I suspect the margin of the probable victory may be lower than the favouritism suggests.
Lewes sit third but could well leapfrog a couple of places for a tied top spot with a win here whereas Regent look a world apart down in 19th place – but factor in their games in hand and with a good wind they could see themselves around the mid-table mark which changes the complexion a touch.
What changes it further and drives my line of thinking is Regent’s away record – only 2 of their last 8 away league games have seen more than 2 goals with 3 wins, 4 draws and just 1 loss – and that solitary defeat to top side Dorking.
As for Lewes they are in better form but scorelines aren’t what I’d class as overwhelmingly in favour of goals with 3 of their most recent 5 league matches failing to trap for 3 or more.