What can I say about yesterday’s bet Harry Brown, other than ask if he’s still running? Well handicapped, for sure, but not to be on that occasion. No-shows of that nature are simply part and parcel of the game. Moving on.
| Warwick - 13:00 |
Cloud Dancer |
7/1 |
On Wednesday, I’m drawn to Cloud Dancer, who runs Gary and Jamie Moore in the 13:00 race at Warwick.
This horse finished second to a winning Nap of mine (Honneur D’Ajonc) back in September. Off the back of a 153-day break, the unexposed gelding ran really well that day, doing his best work late on, suggesting that this slight step back up in trip could easily bring about further improvement.
Step back up in trip should suit
As mentioned above, on the evidence of his last effort, the return to a longer trip should suit, and it’s not just on the basis of his latest run that the return to further rates as a positive, oh no.
Over two miles and four furlongs at Plumpton back in March, the gelding ran very well to finish third as a novice, finishing behind a pair that now rate clearly above this contest.
It’s also worth touching on the fact that this race looks no deeper in terms of overall quality than his last assignment, and if he’s all the better for that comeback effort, then we really shouldn’t be surprised to see him go close here. After all, a mark of 115, which is unchanged since Fontwell, may just be on the lenient side, especially as he’s far from overly raced.
On the subject of being well handicapped, he placed in both March and April from marks of 125 and 123, so 115 definitely seems workable.
The yard has fired in a few winners of late, while Caoilin Quinn’s 3 lb claim continues to be wisely used, with the apprentice also enjoying a few successful outings in the last couple of weeks.
Ultimately, if that September run has brought him on, in first-time cheek-pieces, he should go well, and I really would argue that odds of 7/1 are too big. Given the positives, such odds are well worth taking.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 65 Naps) has a running P/L of +£95.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
Trixie
2:45 Warwick – Heard That 15/2
2:25 Dundalk – Chica Power 6/1
1:25 Ffos Las – Blue Las 9/4