The old saying, “When it rains, it pours”, is a very accurate representation of how things have gone this week.
Everything appears to be drifting out to much larger prices, and they are stinking the place out. Eben Al Khawaneej was always a risk as he was a one-time raced horse, but with the trainer's record in this race, I thought he could be overlooked.
Idefix De Ciergues went from 9/2 to 14/1, and you could tell from the start that he was never winning. The jockey had to roust him along to get going, and his jumping was like the horse was blindfolded.
To top the day off, my main fancy, who was backed in, refused to race.
Houquetot 40/1 (0.5pt EW, 6pl) – Ascot 2.20
This race could be carnage from a punter's view; it's a field of 29 runners on a straight track, and that means they'll either split into two or three groups. I've tried to play the pace angle game many times before, and it never works out how you expect it to, so I think it's best to go for the horse you think has the best chance.
Houquetot was an interesting contender on stable debut for James Owen. James is probably the best new trainer in the business who can improve horses from other stables. He's done it multiple times on the flat and jumps since he obtained his license a couple of years ago, and if he can work his magic with this horse, we could be cooking.
He came from David O'Meara's yard, but he was best known as a fairly useful horse in France. For the most part, he raced in Class 1 company in France, including a couple of Group 1 races. That showed that they thought quite highly of him, and he didn't run shockingly in those races, but was outclassed. He did manage to win a Group 3 and was a runner-up in another.
His handicap mark on his stable debut for James Owens is 98, which I believe is a workable one. Every time I look at the yard, they always seem to be in good form, and this time is no different.
Room Fourteen 7/1 (0.75pt EW, 3pl) – Ascot 4.05
I can understand why Naga is the market favourite for this race, as she has won three on the bounce and I think four-year-olds are very capable of carrying big weights to victory. However, I've gone for the one at the bottom of the weights.
I'm not sure the form of Naga's last win is a true level of her form. She beat a 90-rated horse, but I'm not confident that she should have been 90-rated.
Room Fourteen won on her handicap debut from a low mark and has gone up 6lbs in the handicap as a result. She didn't get the clearest of runs at Yarmouth, but managed to overcome the trouble in running to win and beat a subsequent winner. Saffie is riding off her lowest possible riding weight, so it's a good indicator that the horse has a solid chance.
Tellherthename 11/4 (2pt) – Haydock 1.15
Thankfully, it looks like the rain is going to come after this race, which means the ground should be dry enough for Tellherthename to be in contention for winning this premier handicap.
I thought he was an interesting runner at Cheltenham in March, but I did side away from him. It turns out that was the right decision, but he did run well from a long break and on his stable debut. He was meant to run at Ayr in a Grade 2 last month, but the ground was heavy, and he was withdrawn.
The way that Dan Skelton wins races like this throughout the seasons, it wouldn't be a surprise if this lad popped up and won. He is the current market favourite, and I think that's due to the Skelton being the trainer, but I do think he is one of the most likely winners.
Myal 13/2 (0.75pt EW, 4pl) – Haydock 3.40
There is every chance that Myal could be outclassed by a few of these in this race, but he continues to progress with age, and we might not have seen his ceiling yet.
Steph Hollinshead has done a great job with Myal, and the horse deserves his credit for being tough as teak and as durable as he is. He isn't a lightly raced horse, and has finds himself running in Class 1 races after big runs in good handicaps.
Looking at this race, I thought he was the each-way play. He is 3/3 at this track, handles any ground and arrives in great form on the back of a career best at Ripon last time out. He fended off Poet Master last time out, and I'd like to think if he can reproduce that run, he should be bang there.
GambleAware