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The Good Biscuit looked like he was going to collect the winnings at Pontefract until he was mugged on the line.
He was a drifter in the market and reached 4/1 at some stages throughout the day. I couldn't understand the drift, as he was the in-form horse of the race, and showed that he handles the track very well.
When the eventual winner came from out of the clouds, I had a gut feeling that he was going to beat us on the line, and it happened. To be beaten by the outsider of the field at 16/1 in that fashion is horrible to watch and hard to take.
Vanilier 2/1 (1pt) – Punchestown 3.40
This is an interesting race over the banks, and as I witnessed on the first day of the Punchestown Festival, it's a unique course and can cause a lot of problems. It's not quite the X-Country course like Cheltenham, but it does share similarities.
I think Vanilier would prefer a slightly softer surface, and it's a shame that the pour down expected to land isn't coming in time. Despite this, he has proven that he is capable off Yielding/Good to soft ground before. He was second in the Grand National on a similar surface and was third in the X-Country at Cheltenham in March.
I think the main horses in the market are the ones to focus on for this race, but I think that if Vanilier can jump well, he's the one to be on. He was sent off as the favourite for this race last year, but unseated his rider at the twelfth obstacle. Hopefully, Gavin Cromwell would have had a trip out to Punchestown and given him a spin around here to get his confidence and experience up for this race.
Champagne Chic 11/1 (0.5pt EW, 6pl) – Punchestown 4.15
The rain might not come in time to make it as testing as Champagne Chic would like, but I think the current ground will be better suited than what he faced in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham.
Prior to Cheltenham, he was progressing nicely in some decent handicaps. He won on his two starts coming into Cheltenham, and looked like a really nice horse for handicaps. He is tough as nails and stays the trip extremely well. He was running a decent enough race at Cheltenham, but the ground was good, and he made a mistake at the last obstacle, which didn't help him.
Jeremy Scott has only sent one runner to Ireland in the past five years, that was Golden Ace, who finished second to State Man. I think it's eye-catching that he's sending this horse over, and given how well the UK raiders have done at this meeting in the past, he was worth a chance.
Jimmy Du Seuil 15/2 (1pt) – Punchestown 6.05
I have always been very keen to take on Teahupoo at every opportunity, as for whatever reason, I've never been his biggest fan. He is fancied to win this race for the third year in a row, but I think this is tougher than it looks.
In his last two wins in this race, he has beaten Asterion Forlonge. No disrespect to that horse, but he's not a proper top-level horse, and he was an 11-year-old when he was runner-up last year. I thought Jimmy Du Seuil was a very interesting runner in this race, and if the decision to revert back to hurdles can spruce him up, he's a lively outsider.
His win in the Coral Cup of 2025 was impressive. He returned from an absence and won a competitive handicap in easy fashion. He was giving 5lbs to Impose Toi, who has since improved plenty and is now rated 157 and has won a Grade 2 and Grade 1 in the UK this season.
Based on that performance, I think the step up to three miles will be fine. We saw Klassical Dream win this race when moving up to this trip for the first time, so hopefully, lightning strikes twice for the same yard.
GambleAware
One for the James Owen trend tomorrow lads…
Super Hit 17.07 Lingfield 7/2. Again this is one some may not include in the trend. This one makes its stable debut after switching from Darryll Hollands yard only last week. Cheekpieces have been worn for previous 9 runs. James Owen has opted to keep them on so that makes this the first time for this yard.
I’ve seen a few stable switchers come from Darryll Hollands yard to James Owen and win first time out so this is a bit of a wining trend. Horse hasn’t run for around 3 three months. I reckon they know it’s fully fit and going straight in for a stable debut win.
James Owen yard, around 2 seasons back was well known for having winners on their stable debut. They were up at around 25% strike rate back then but that has dropped down to around 17% recently. Horse is well handicapped on old form and has run well here just in January finishing 2nd to an improving type that’s now rated 74. Got to feel pretty confident especially with how this trend has been doing for the last 17 months but even more so in the last 10 days with 5 from last 5 all going in 🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩
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Some singles to peruse and taken these in…
5 Folds (21x bets)
6 Folds (7x bets)
Acca x 1
CHURCHILL DOWNS – Race 9…Laygnos 11/8
Race 11…CY Fair 6/4
(For MULTIPLES take ‘Money back’ Top 2 @ EVS
OAKLAWN- Race 8…Magic Woman 4/1
(For multiples- Take ‘Money back’ Top 3 @ 11/4
Race 9…Walk Away Kaye 7/2
(For multiples – Take ‘Money back’ Top 3 @ 5/2)
SANTA ANITA -Race 7…Shady Gem 13/8
(For multiples – Take ‘Money back’ Top 3 @ 10/11
EVANGELINE DOWNS – Race 3…Big Nickel 10/3
(For multiples take ‘Money back’ Top 3 @ 9/4
Race 7…Diva Beach 10/3. *NAP*
Take ‘Money back’ back Top 3 @ 2/1
GL y’all 🫡 🇺🇸 👨⚖️
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When taking SINGLE bets ⬆️ the ‘Money back’ for Top 2-3 or even 4 s ALWAYS a good option especially if the price drifts nearer the off.
I.e Layganos @ 11/8 in Race 9 at Churchill Downs may drift out a bit meaning you could get 11/8 or 6/4 for money back top 2
Of course prices may come in 🤷
OAKLAWN PARK -Race 9…Walk Away Kaye *Nb*
EVANGELINE -Race 3 Big Nickel *Nbb*
When taking SINGLE bets ⬆️ the ‘Money back’ for Top 2-3 or even 4 s ALWAYS a good option especially if the price drifts nearer the off.
I.e CHURCHILL -Race 9..Layganos @ 11/8 who if better priced would have been a definite single bet, he may drift out a bit meaning you could get 11/8 or 6/4 for money back top 2 which in a tough G3 race be a better bet. 🤷
Of course prices may come in 🤷