To see Naqeeb weak in the market was a surprise, and seeing the Balding horse win as easily as he did was an even bigger surprise.
I can't imagine this form line is going to be worth much, given how easily the winner won. He is clearly progressing and is running from one of the best stables in the country, but he hadn't shown that level of performance in any of his runs this season.
Tikka broke slowly from the gates, which meant he was put in a bad position from the beginning. I don't think he was in love with track, as his balance wasn't the greatest. I'm not sure what happened in the final two furlongs, as the cameraman decided to focus on the front two horses and cut out the rest of the field.
Eternal Sunshine 12/1 (EW, 3pl) – Newmarket 1.50
I am a big fan of Jim Goldie, but mainly when he sends his runners south of the border. It's always tricky when playing a Goldie runner in Scotland or the northern England tracks, as he saddles three or four in many races and they all have solid enough chances. However, when he goes to the south of England, he doesn't like sending them unless they have a good chance of returning with some form of winnings.
Jim has two in this race, but his apprentice, Lauren Young, has opted for Eternal Sunshine. Despite having the stable jockey on him, she is double the price of the other Goldie runner, which makes no sense. Lauren has ridden both of these horses a lot over the last couple of years, and she clearly feels like Eternal Sunshine has the better chance of winning.
Eternal Sunshine went on a typical Goldie run last year, winning a few races in a row and improving through the sprint handicaps. She hasn't managed to win many races this year, but that's because she has run well and the handicapper hasn't altered the handicap mark too much. However, she has been in some big sprint handicaps in the past twelve months, and has shown she is capable of knocking on the door.
At a very solid each-way price, and running off a decent weight of 9st 2lbs, she got my vote.
Jojo Rabbit 4/1 – Pontefract 1.32
This race might not take much to win, with just Albegone in good form, so I wanted to back Jojo Rabbit from Stall 1 in the hope that he can bounce back to form.
He hasn't been consistent this year, but he did win over today's course and distance in April off a 4lb higher mark, so we do know that he can deliver the goods if in the right frame of mind. He made the running that day, and if they want to employ the same tactics, today is that day. He is drawn in stall 1, which is a great stall to bounce out and make the running at Pontefract, and we see it a lot of the time that they can be hard to catch if getting the head start before turning for home.
Albegone is definitely a more solid alternative, and isn't a bad price of 9/4 in a very weak race, but Jojo Rabbit was a much better horse in his prime, and he looms on a dangerous handicap mark.
GambleAware