Yesterday was a no-bet day, which was definitely the correct decision.
As I stated on Wednesday's thread, nothing stood out like a bet, so why force it?
Hopefully, some of you who did have a bet did get a winner.
Some good news regarding the DRF, it looks like the ground staff have worked miracles. They have managed to remove the majority of the standing water, so it looks likely that the meeting will go ahead.
Carismatic Soldier 7/2 (1pt) – Ayr 3.13
In my opinion, siding with the unexposed horses for a race like this is the play. I thought that Carismatic Soldier was the horse to back, as he ran well in a Class 3 handicap at Wetherby the time before last.
Whenever James or Sean Bowen hasn't been in the saddle, this horse has run two stinkers. Since his poor effort last time out at Uttoxeter, he has had a little break and will have been freshened up for his runs in late winter/early spring.
He looks like he is on a good enough handicap mark of 114, and the step up to 3m should be what he wants. He was staying on strongly over 2m 6f when he finished third at Wetherby, leaving the impression he is an out-and-out stayer.
I am a huge fan of Sean Bowen, and Olly Murphy does well with his Scottish runners, so I fully expect a bounce back to form.
Jupiter Allen 11/4 (1pt) – Wincanton 3.33
Collector's Item and My Silver Lining have better form than Jupiter Allen, but I thought he ran a great race last time out on ground which was too quick for him.
Collector's Item ran well in the Welsh National trial, and My Silver Lining has started to look like the horse of old. My problem with the mare is that she is probably better over further. It's going to be a stamina test on heavy ground, but she stays 3m 6f + very well, so maybe this sharp track over this trip isn't ideal for her.
Jupiter Allen ran well at Exeter over 3m 6f, but probably didn't want that far, despite showing stamina at the end. Last time out, he stayed on in a decent race, but was definitely caught out by good-to-soft ground.
He is a previous winner on heavy over shorter, and I think he is on a good enough mark for him to win this race. He is still a very young horse with progression still likely to come, and he is with a trainer who is doing well with the small amount of horses he trains.
GambleAware