Lucky 15 racing tips

The main thread was bad, but the Lucky 15 was even worse.

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Pedley Wood finished third, ran okay, but nowhere near good enough to get involved in the business end.

Myretown continued to put in another disappointing performance to put himself in a very strange position for the season going forward. I don't think you can blame the stable form, as they bagged three winners on Friday.

Lightningupourdays went off as the favourite for her race, but finished last of the ones who finished. Baffling.

Thankforthehelp ran an okay race. Considering there was no money on him throughout the day, it was sort of expected for him to finish where he did, as they are a gambling yard and the horse is owned by JP McManus.

Clansman 3/1 – Newcastle 2.12

In a race this poor, I think edging with the class option is the way to go. Two of the horses with winning form have won in a lower grade, and every time in recent times they've stepped out of class 6 company, they get punished.

Clansman is an older statesman now, and his handicap has tumbled as a result. However, he was once a useful handicapper who mixed in Class 4 races. He raced over 1m 4f last time out, and despite him getting tired towards the end, I think the return to this trip and against a weaker set of horses will see him bag another win.

Bossy Parker 10/3 – Newcastle 3.42

It's not a fantastic race, and these types of races are ones where they take turns to win. Bossy Parker stood out as the most likely winner in this classified stakes race.

He is a six-year-old, but still isn't fully exposed over a mile. He has run over this trip once, with the last time out coming over slightly longer. I think the half furlong less is a positive, and I thought he ran very well in a similar race at Wolverhampton last time out, making him a key player.

Flowstate 4/1 – Newcastle 4.12

He has gone up 2lbs for his recent success, which might not be too bad considering he won a little cosier than the winning margins suggest. He is still an unexposed horse on a stiff track over 7f, so there's still a lot to believe there is more to come from David O'Meara's five-year-old.

Em Jay Kay 11/4 – Newcastle 5.12

Phil McEntee has a solid enough record when sending horses to Newcastle from his Newmarket stable, so I'm happy to take a chance on Em Jay Kay, who won at Lingfield last time out.

Like Flowstate, I think he could appreciate this stiff track, and the drop back to 5f on a stick track should compensate for the fact that he won around Lingfield over 6f. He has only gone up 2lbs for the recent win, which isn't a lot with how the handicapper treats winners in this day and age.

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