Saturday's Lucky 15 was a blowout. Many underperformed, and others looked rusty on their first start of the season.
Pure Carbon 2/1 – Ascot 3.40
I'm not sure why Paul O'Brien isn't riding Pure Carbon, but he didn't ride on Saturday, so maybe he's having a break before Aintree. Because he's not on board, Brendan Powell takes the ride, who is 2/8 for the yard this season.
Haas Boy is a monkey of a horse, and I think he has crept up the weights too much now. Pure Carbon ran better than it appeared last time out at Kempton. He snuck into contention before getting tired late on over 2m 2f. I believe the drop in trip back to two miles is the correct decision, and he'll sit quietly behind a likely strong pace.
Joyau Allen 3/1 – Ascot 4.15
On all the form he has shown, Joyau Allen has to step up massively to win this race, but he has to be more than capable with the step up in trip.
He is related to Envoi Allen, who turned into a fantastic horse, even over three miles. If he has a fraction of the ability of his brother, he should be winning this race with flying colours. He's in good hands with Paul Nicholls, and if they believe this distance is the key, then you've got to be confident in a big run.
Certainly Red 2/1 – Ascot 4.50
With Copperhead and Gabbys Cross having a ding-dong battle last time out, and we know they're closely matched, it could be worthwhile giving Certainly Red a chance.
If this race were at Sandown, I'd be supremely confident, as he is very good at that venue. It's at Ascot, which does share some similarities with Sandown. It's a proper jumping test and has a stiff uphill finish, so it should also suit his running style.
The good ground has to be in his favour, and in a small-runner field, I thought he was the obvious candidate.
Uncle Pat 4/1 – Downpatrick 4.27
It's a bit of a boring pick for the Ulster National, but Uncle Pat must have a fantastic chance based on his latest run at Punchestown.
Willie Mullins's maiden chaser finished second to My Immortal in the Punchestown Grand National Trial, which shows he stays the trip. If he can improve a couple of pounds from that race, then he puts himself in with a huge chance, and that's why he's the price he is at.
I'm not saying it will be an easy task, as these races can get very messy, and if you're behind a horse who makes a blunder, it can also completely ruin your race as well. With a clear round of jumping, he will take a lot of stopping.
GambleAware