Captain Bellamy ran well, but bumped into a horse that ran a belter on their chasing debut.
For the most part, Captain Bellamy jumped well, but towards the end, he made a few mistakes. Cobden was too casual over a couple of the last fences when in the lead, and I'm not a fan of that. I like when jockeys fire their horse into the fence. The winner stayed on well and won comfortably in the end.
Based on that performance, I will be more than happy to back him again in a similar race, as there are races to be won.
Tankardstown Diva 11/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Kelso 1.00
Despite being one of the lowest-rated horses in this race, I think Tankardstown Diva has a much better chance than it looks like on paper.
The decision to revert to hurdling has been a fantastic decision. She has won three in a row over hurdles after being winless over fences on two occasions in between the hurdle wins. I tipped against her last time out in a weaker class event, and she was very impressive.
The way she travelled through the race at Ludlow was classy, and I instantly thought she could be good enough to take the step up against better horses.
Class 1 Mares' races can often throw up very strange results, and you will see horses at high prices outrun their odds, and sometimes cause an upset. I don't think Tankardstown Diva is going to be high odds, as I think many will be interested in backing her for this race, like I am. She is a horse in fantastic form, and there's every chance that she'll be able to take this step up in grade in her stride.
Diamond Dealer 7/2 (1pt) – Kelso 2.40
I've been defeated by Diamond Dealer earlier in the season, but I decided to tip him up last time out at Wetherby. It looked like a win was on the cards for 95% of the race, but he was collared late on.
He has gone up 3lbs for his recent close defeat, which is never an ideal scenario, but he almost won, so it's a fair rise. I think the drop back by a couple of furlongs is the right place, and this is the perfect race for him at this stage of his career.
He is going to be prone to an improver whilst carrying 12th, but if he gets a lead and jumps as he has done for the whole season, I only see one winner.
GambleAware