Bacio showed that if you've got the speed, all you have to do is keep it simple.
He was 4/1 because of the ground concerns; if it was good to firm, I would have backed him at 2/1 and said that was good value. He is just a very rapid horse, and at York you can get away with it. I didn't feel any anxiety at any moment, and when the horse was still in the jockey's hands at the two-pole, I knew it was over.
Plaid ran a decent race; I didn't advise it as an each-way bet, but she would've been a dirty each-way selection if you went that way. Oisin held the horse up towards the rear, and she took an age to get rolling. She did finish fourth, so if you did back her EW, you would have got your money back.
Lake Forest 11/2 – York 3.00
Appleby has avoided the big festivals with a lot of his horses this year, but he goes for Group 1 glory with Notable Speech, who is the favourite. He is the highest-rated in this race by a distance, but that is from form over a mile. This is different, as it's a relatively quick seven furlongs. I can see why he is the price he is at, but when you've got a seven-furlong specialist in the race at nearly double the odds, that makes more sense.
Of course, I am siding with Lake Forest at odds of 11/2. Surely this pick is a no-brainer. He can be a bit inconsistent, but when he's properly on his game, he's a Group 1 horse at this trip. He has put in some superb performances this season. The run at Haydock was impressive, and he backed that up at Goodwood, despite it not being done in easy fashion.
You could easily make a case for Rogue Diplomat, who was second to Lake Forest and is 12/1 in this race, but I think Lake Forest isn't in love with Goodwood. He was second in this race last year when he was short of room a furlong from home and lost by half a length.
Dorigo 9/1 (EW, 3pl) – York 4.45
Adonius at the top of the market beat a tip of mine at the start of the season, and he has gone on to prove that he is a very capable juvenile sprinter. He has the most solid form, but 9/4 is a short price, and you often see upsets in races like these.
I thought that the drop to five furlongs made Dorigo a very interesting contender at odds of 9/1. When you look through his form, it's actually really solid. He was second at Goodwood, and he did a fair bit wrong that day. The fourth in that race was Final Objective, who had previously run a scorcher at 125/1 at Royal Ascot, but was costed by being green as grass. Since then, that horse finished second in yesterday's Gimcrack.
Dorigo has a tendency to lug to the left when coming under pressure. It's hard to combat that, but when he has been given a godsend of stall 1, it means that if they go in a straight line, he can't go any further left or he'll break the barriers.
GambleAware