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Cairnzy will be covering both Saturday and Sunday's Lucky 15 bet, with Rizz covering the main thread as usual.
I covered a Lucky 15 bet last weekend, which resulted in one 9/1 winner and three losing selections. I felt a tad unlucky with a few of the others running quite well in defeat, but missed out on the places by small margins.
Anyway, enough blabbering on, and onto Saturday's selections!
French Ship 10/3 – Newbury 1.40
This looks wide open, but I think French Ship is just about a worthy favourite on paper, and this progressive five-year-old could be anything.
French Ship has won four of his nine races, and even though this is only his third handicap run, he’s already racing off a rating of 136.
On his latest start at Cheltenham, he won comfortably over a similar distance by nearly four lengths. The only downside is an 8lb rise in the weights and a step up into Class 2 company, but with that said, I think this five-year-old is more than capable of progressing further and taking this step up in class in his stride.
I took a quick glance through his previous races, and to my surprise, I saw he came up against The New Lion in a previous race. I caught a replay and French Ship ran a blinder in defeat and went down by just over 5 lengths in the end. My selection has clearly gotten better since and should run a big race under jockey Harry Cobden.
Constitution Hill 7/4 – Newcastle 2.00
The race of the day, The Fighting Fifth Hurdle, and despite a small field, it promises to be a classic.
I've decided to give Constitution Hill one more roll of the dice in the hope that the word on the streets is true, that he is back to somewhat of his best. I couldn't trust the Henderson yard as far as I could throw them, which makes this whole selection a tad hypocritical, but here I am tipping him up.
It's an interesting contest, we have The New Lion who looks like a real exciting sort for the Skeltons. The drop to 2m on a flat track like Newcastle worried me. Most seem to think he is fast enough to cope but from watching replays of The New Lion, I personally thought he took a while to get through the gears.
The Willie Mullins powerhouse in Anzadam could be anything really, but that one has to prove he is capable of this step up in grade. He has been backed into 2/1 from around 3s, but I'm not totally sure.
On his day. Constitution Hill has the engine to go the full gallop over 2m, and I'm hoping Nico pops him out and makes all. The recent falls in prior races are a concern, but I think if he were to go from the front, he could be a hard nut to crack if he gets into a nice rhythm.
Indeevar Bleu 7/2 – Newbury 2.15
My third selection comes in the shape of the Olly Murphy-trained Indeevar Bleu, who will be ridden by the usual Sean Bowen.
I was really impressed with Indeevar Bleu when winning last time out at Ffos Las and he had other good performances before that outing, including a very impressive bumper win back in 2023.
His career in itself has been very stop start, having only had five runs since that Wetherby victory. With that said, Olly Murphy is no mug, and you can only assume he is ready to go. I'm hoping race fitness won't be an issue because there is plenty of progression left in this lad, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he performs.
Fortification 13/8 – Wolverhampton 4.30
The nine raced maiden Palmeira would be your obvious starting point, and she brings some okay form to this contest, but I thought she was worth taking on with Fortification from the Archie Watson team.
My selection was an expensive purchase ( £350,000 ), and he took a step forward from his debut run when finishing second at Ripon during the summer. Fortification has since been gelded, and connections have gone for the cheekpieces this time around, which looks like a good move given he was nabbed late on at Ripon, having taken the lead early on in an attempt to make all.
With further progress expected, I think Fortification has a strong chance of getting off the mark at the third attempt in what looks like a pretty ordinary affair.
GambleAware
Cairnzy your so predictable you done your brains in on CH last season.
If there was ever a no bet race this is it to many unknown factors on them all and its price is useless for a Lucky15.
I wouldn’t say the price is pointless for a Lucky 15 bet, given he is just short of 2/1, but each to their own and all that.
You are probably right in terms of the race being a no bet as there are plenty of unknowns, but it’s the best race of the day, so I opted to throw it onto the side thread for those who want to watch the race and have a selection in it.
I took CH solely on the fact that if he jumps well, I think he wins, which may sound silly as he has fallen on more than one occasion in recent times, but from what the racing world has heard, he is schooling well and somewhat back to his oldself.
I thought 2m was probably on the short side for The New Lion as from watching replays he took a while to go through the gears which again I thought could be a downfall if CH was to show up. Anzadam well, nobody really knows what to expect and I fully expect that one to sit off the pace.
It’s a bit of fun this bet Deb, I rarely cover on here now due to stepping away and I jump on here and there. Take it for what is it.
Hope you are keeping well (Y)