RizzelTips weighed in with two nicely priced winners on Saturday with Tadleel (8-1) and Nayef Road (9-1) both winning on the all-weather at Newcastle. He's back again, aiming to repeat he feat with his tips for Sunday.
This race is mostly about whether the unexposed horses are still improving, or whether they are not up this level, off their current ratings.
However, I think they might not be ready to win this on their first time out this season, and they could set it up for a horse with more experience.
I really like the look of PROTECTED GUEST. Tom Queally has had a lot of grief on social media for how he has ridden this horse in the past, but in my opinion, his riding has been spot on.
This horse is talented, but very quirky, and he needs to be ridden cold, which is how Tom does it. 1m 2f on a stiff track like Newmarket, with a lot of pace expected from the likes of Davydenko, he should be able to settle and come swooping late on in the race.
He looks like a quality EW bet.
In a race where no one knows the ceiling of any of these horses, it can be quite dangerous to select a horse, but I think ALPEN ROSE has shown enough form at Group level to suggest she is smart.
Her last run was too bad to be true, so I am happy enough to put a line through that, and to concentrate on older pieces of form. She finished 3rdat Doncaster behind Powerful Breeze and Boomer, who have since run well at Group 1 level, behind the 1000 Guineas favourite, Quadrilateral.
On that day Alpen Rose finished in front of Run Wild, and I think she can confirm the form over this longer trip, on a stamina testing track, which should suit her pedigree. The fact she has had four previous races will be advantageous, and the fact she has had two previous runs at the track will put her in good stead.
Selection: Alpen Rose EW
3:35 Newmarket (1000 Guineas)
I generally try to keep to one selection in races, but on this occasion I feel like one at bigger prices could definitely outrun her odds and land in the places, but at the same time I think the favourite will be too strong.
Therefore, my two selections for the 1000 Guineas is QUADRILATERAL and LES HOGUES.
Quadrilateral looked to be in big trouble on her last run at Newmarket, but she showed she stays the stiff mile, and further in the future. Her stamina laden pedigree showed as she powered up the final furlong to beat Powerful Breeze and Love into third place.
That performance was very impressive as she has a troubled passage in the final 2f, and it is hard to disagree that she is not a worthy favourite, in a race where a lot of horses’ stamina is unknown.
Milisle looks a strong stayer over 6f on a stiff track, but an extra two furlongs will be a different ball game, and I do not think it will suit her, the same can be said about Raffle Prize. Whereas the one horse who has gone under the radar at huge prices is Les Hogues, who is a new recruit to the George Baker team.
Last season she raced in France, and she has some cracking form, especially finishing a neck second behind Dream And Do, who won the French 1000 Guineas last weekend. On that day she was staying on very well over 7f, so the step-up in trip will suit and the quicker ground should be a bonus.
MOTAGALLY is the one to be on in this race as he can continue his recent progressive form since being gelded. He has some nice form tied in with his last run on the AW at Wolverhampton.
He beat a horse called Power Link by 2.5 lengths, and that horse has since won 2x and finished runner-up 3x.
Watchable who finished back in sixth has managed to win 3x since that race back in October. The drop in trip to 5f does not faze me as Newmarket is a stiff track, and there is a lot of pace in the race, so the fact he stays further will be a huge benefit.
This race does not look too good on paper, and I think that KIPPS is a class above this field.
He previously had a Derby entry, before all entries were wiped, and he looked better than the bare result last time out at Lingfield.
The front two pulled five lengths clear which suggests that they were both above average. The form of his first run has been boosted in recent days, with Celestran winning at Yarmouth on Wednesday.
He has only run on the All Weather, which is a slight negative as we do not know how he will handle the ground conditions. His pedigree suggests he would prefer a quicker surface than Good-To-Soft, but I think he is a step above this field.
I will be very disappointed if ELARQAM does not win this race on Sunday, as he is head and shoulders above Group 3 company.
Last season he was mightily unlucky not to win a Group 1 at York, where he had a horrible passage behind Japan and Crystal Ocean.
No horses in this field come close to the level of Japan or Crystal Ocean, with the highest rated horse being 114 (Bangkok).
Ground conditions do not bother me in slightest, as he has won on soft ground against a soft ground specialist in Addeybb. The only doubt is his fitness, but based on how Mark Johnston’s horses are running, I am positive he will have him in fine order.
The horse in this race which has the potential to win a Group 1 is definitely SPACE BLUES.
He was touched off in a couple of Group 1’s last season, where he finished second to Too Darn Hot, and third behind Advertise, both races being in France. On his day he is close to top class, and we did not see that potential at Meydan last time out, where he was clearly not himself.
I am happy enough to put a line through that run, and to go off his superb runs over in France. 7f looks to be his ideal trip, and he should strip fitter than most of these horses as he raced 92 days ago and was being trained in Dubai for some of the big races over there.
It would be a disappointment if he were not winning a Class 1 Listed race.
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