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Thanks again to Cairnzy who was able to fill in for me on Sunday as I needed to take a day away from racing.
Plumpton 3:52 – Mr Mackay 5/1 (1pt, Bet365)
I'd say that Nigel Twiston-Davies' Mr Mackay was unfortunate to bump into one last time out at Hereford. The winner was backed off the books and won quite convincingly in the end, so it was a fair effort by Mr Mackay to finish as close as he did as the way the winner was backed in, defeat was never in their mind from the Kerry Lee yard.
Prior to that runner-up finish, Mr Mackay had shown some nice pieces of form, especially at Cheltenham, with the distances from where he finished to the winner not telling the full story. He was in contention for at least a top 4 finish at Cheltenham until jumping the last where he struggled to see out of the trip up the hill and his final jump put that to bed, but he definitely raced better than his 9th/12 would look on paper. That race was a strong renewal and the form has turned into a decent form line to follow as the winner was 3rd in the Betfair Hurdle, the runner-up was fourth in the same race at Newbury and the 3rd won a Class 2 race up at Musselburgh. Today's race is definitely weaker than the Cheltenham race, and even the other Cheltenham race that Mr Mackay ran in, which saw him finish 4th/17 behind Impose Toi who has since finished 2nd in a Grade 3 at Ascot and 3rd in the Lanzarote at Kempton.
I'd say that Mr Mackay would prefer a slightly quicker surface, but for the majority of the way on his last start at Cheltenham, he proved that he handles the conditions and around an easier track, which should play to his strengths, as will the furlong less he has to run over. James Turner takes the ride and he is putting good use to his 7lb claim, most recently on Chance A Tune who he gave a belter of a ride to at Hereford last week. That horse also runs at Plumpton today, but with a penalty to carry he doesn't stand out as a bet to me, and out of the rare Nigel Twiston Davies pair at Plumpton, Mr Mackay looks to be my strongest fancy of the day. Nigel hasn't used Plumpton a lot in recent years, he has only had 8 runners at the track in the last 5 years, coming away with 2 winners, so they must fancy their chances with Mr Mackay to bring him to this venue today.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Roxhill rosie 7/2 L/town 3.00
Makina girl 7/4. L/town 3.30
St Dennis well 9/4 L/town 5.05
Bint Havana gold 7/4 wolves 7.00
Artisan dancer 2/1 wolves 7.30
Lucky 31 & accy 365
A little ew extra on Marelly top 5 at 50s
4.30 Leop.
GL
Close!
Constitution Hill confirmed as out of Cheltenham which is a real shame as we want to see the best horses run at the festival.
It does open the door though to the possibility that Irish Point will now switch to the Champion Hurdle so the 2 Robcur horses at the top of the betting for the stayers are split up with Teahupoo (who according to Rob Acheson represents their best chance of a winner) being their sole representative in the stayers.
Hi DC. Do you think Lossiemouth will switch to the CH?
I would have assumed, barring injury to State Man, Lossiemouth would stick to the Mares.
DC
I new that Friday night he would not be running .I was at a Cheltenham preview night and was talking to Sean Doyle a horse breeder and the very words he said that the horse hadn’t a hope in hell of running ,I know Nicky said he would give him every chance of making Cheltenham ,But surely if S Doyle new he wouldn’t run then Nicky would know this too.
I suppose it adds to the drama of the festival
Also i was talking to JJ Slevin and he is very bullish about Lark in the morning in the Boodles at 4/1
Sean Doyle gave us Love Envoi at 14/1 at the 2022 Festival and the one that he is mad about this year is in the bumper, Romeo Coolio 7/1. Any thoughts on these 2 horses.
Plug
I think most people knew he wasn’t running but it was only confirmed this morning with a handwritten letter by Hendo put up on Twitter.
Smoothsailor
Lossiemouth will definitely run in the Mares this year. They’d only switch her if State Man was out but he’s as reliable as they come so very much doubt it will happen.
Reply gone into moderation ?
Hopefully it shows up later
@Smoothsailor no chance unless something happens to State Man.
State Man now wins his champion hurdle with Irish Point 2nd rest no chance IMO
What Deb said
Plug
My thoughts on the 2 horses you mention.
LITM
Clearly well H’capped but off 122 would be the lowest rated winner over the past 11 years.
He ran in a Maiden Hurdle LTO and horses running in Maidens LTO are 0/40 past 10 years.
They had him entered to run in 3 races before being withdrawn so prep has to go down as not ideal and only 1 fav or Jt fav has won in the past 10 years so it’s fair to say trends are not on his side.
Romeo Colio was purchased for a small fortune and GE was saying he was his No1 Bumper horse all campaign but prep hasn’t gone to plan having only had the 1 run to date. (11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs).
I’m pretty sure he was purchased to be a top 3m chaser and will probably will be but I’d prefer to be on someone a bit more streetwise for this race.
super stylinn 2.05 well done all winners yesterday
chance a tune 2.50
chance a tune 2.50
yup and ..roxhill roise 3.00
Mahoning -Race 8..Gunner Gabriel 10/11 **** Paddy Power
Santa Anita -Race 4 …Prince Prancelot 11/10 ***+
Paddy Power
Race 7…Elegant 11/4 **** Paddy Power
A lot SHORTER price with most here, Bob “the baw bag” Baffert runners on turf haven’t been going great but that all changed at the weekend,starting to motor now and lightly raced Elegant hopefully be another to climb the ranks.
Combo forecast -No: = 2-7-4 * (x6 Bets)
Add 5 at a push for 12x bets at smaller stakes
Few more to sort but they look the best of so far?
Eh there in the IU S of A ⬆️ – just in case 😋
GL rest of day folks
🇺🇸 🫡
Nazine 5-05 leopardstown 9-2 @betmgm 🇮🇪
This has no chance on form but opened 25-1 and is now 7-2 generally bar 2 firms.
The Irish are careful with their money and usually these sort of punts have some substance to them.
Stoneyford lady 5-35 leopardstown 9-4 🇮🇪.
Mullins usually wins the bumper and has the odds on favourite today but was well beaten on debut under similar conditions.
Stoneyford lady ran a good race on debut behind the impressive tullyhill in a hurdle coming 4th of 25.
Closely related to captain Guinness I’m hoping he stays on past the Mullins horse.
Jerk 😂
I noticed that one 😂😂
Edoardo 5-21 Toulouse.
7-5 top 3 finish BETFAIR
16-5 top 2 finish BETFAIR
these prices lot better than the usual robbing bookies.
Rouget has 2 in this race, one is the 2nd favourite kotgar.
His stable jockey though is on edoardo which is odd !!.
The EVENS favourite quantum hasn’t ran before and unless its top class really shouldn’t be that short on debut
80-20 stake on the above
French horse won 🇫🇷👍
2 Irish horses bag o shite
white mist 5.30 well done all winners today
And now Marine Nationale is also out
Cheers DC
Has to be the worst Arkle ever.
Artisan dancer 7-30 Wolverhampton
15-8 betting without havanazam @starsports.
Couldn’t split the 2 as havanazam is 3/3 here so gone with the above bet.
Artisan dancer top 2 finish at EVENS good for a doubles maybe as it’s very consistent
mellys flyer 8.00 ew
liberty mountain 8.30 ew