Always A Reason would've had a great chance if he hadn't made any mistakes, but his jumping was his main issue.
From what I can remember, he made mistakes on three different occasions, with one being a very bad error. He still managed to be in contention turning for home, and if he were in that position without the jumping mistakes, I think he would have won.
However, you have to jump well to win jump races, and he didn't manage to do that.
Billecart 9/4 (1pt) – Newcastle 1.15
It's a bit confusing that Andab isn't the current favourite for this race. He has the best form from his two-year-old season and had a solid effort in Qatar 48 days ago. Joseph O'Brien sends him from Ireland, so he always has to be respected.
The market fancy is Billecart, whom I also fancy for this race. If you're following me in backing him, then you're going off potential than the solid facts. His debut run at Newmarket last July has been franked by nearly every horse in the race. The winner, runner-up and fifth-placed horse are now all rated over 100. Based on that alone, he has to be respected.
We didn't see him for the rest of the season, but he did return with a win over today's course and distance. He was expected to win at odds of 1/6, and he did it with ease. That was always going to be a pipe-opener for this season's campaign, and with this coming relatively soon after, this has been a target in Karl Burke's mind for a little while.
Based on what we know, he has to improve to win this, but he looks like he could be a lovely horse.
Stateira 6/4 (1pt) – Newcastle 2.25
I am a big fan of horses who have course and distance form. Newcastle isn't a unique track, but to know that im backing a horse who is two from two at the venue is a confidence booster.
Stateira took the step up to Class 2 company in her stride, with no problems. She was given quite a positive ride by Oisin, who got her a prominent position early and took over to lead five furlongs from home. She showed signs of greenness when idling and handing, but she won by a cosy four lengths.
The handicapper has taken a respectable view of the win and has put her up 10lbs for the win. That will obviously make this a much tougher task, but she recorded an RPR of 102 and is thriving at this track, so there could easily be a bit more to come.
GambleAware