Rumoursareflying gave us a nice 3/1 winner at Ludlow on Thursday.
I think it's safe to say that Rumoursareflying did not deserve to win. His jumping was atrocious. He made a mistake at nearly every fence, including at least three or four where he walked through the obstacle.
Thankfully, his momentum wasn't massively checked despite the blunders, and he proved that he was the best handicapped horse in the race. If he could jump a fence, he could easily improve another 5lbs after the handicapper puts him up for his win.
Captain Bellamy 2/1 (1pt) – Newbury 2.30
If you were to look at the most recent runs for each horse, Captain Bellamy wouldn't be close to the top of the list. It was evident that his latest run was on ground he despised, and I believe the return to a much quicker surface will be much better for him.
I think you have to focus on his second-place finish over today's course and distance on good ground. The winner of that race was Calimystic, who has since won on his return to racing, a couple of weeks ago. Holloway Queen was back in fourth in that race. He went to Cheltenham and won the National Hunt Chase in good fashion, franking the form even further.
Captain Bellamy is 3lbs heavier than he was for finishing in second at this venue two runs back, and I don't think that's enough to prevent him from putting up a bold bid. He evidently needs good racing ground, and now that he's running over a suitable trip, we'll see the best of him.
The two chase debutantes are interesting in this race, as they can be anything. However, I'd really like to see Harry Cobden give Captain Bellamy a positive ride from the front. I don't think the other horses with experience are good enough to beat Captain Bellamy, so to get the inexperienced chasers out of their rhythm would be ideal with a good pace. A solid pace should hopefully force the newcomers to make mistakes as they'll be jumping at a pace they don't want to go.
After a quiet Cheltenham, Paul Nicholls' form is coming back to how we usually expect it to be. He had the Midlands National winner and had a good winner at Ludlow yesterday.
GambleAware