Sherborne put in one of the worst jumping performances I have seen from a horse who was fancied in the market.
He didn't jump any fence on a good stride, and he just seemed like he wasn't on a good day. I thought because he has been in the form of his life that he would at least jump well, as he has done on the last two starts, but I was wrong.
Hoe Joly Smoke 5/2 (1pt) – Ayr 3.30
I'm getting similar vibes for Hoe Joly Smoke that I got from Riskintheground. We know he's a talented chaser on his, and has previously run well in a Grade 3, so to see him return to form for this race wouldn't be a surprise.
Dan Skelton generally does very well at this meeting, and I can see Hoe Joly Smoke running well in a race which should suit his running style. There appears to be a lot of pace on offer, with the likes of Twinjets and Myretown both being horses who like to make the running.
Hoe Joly Smoke has won over three miles, but he doesn't seem the strongest of stayers over that trip. I think a truly run 2m 4f race on soft ground should be his optimal conditions. He has a good cruising speed, and I expect to see a similar ride from Harry as he did on Riskintheground. If you didn't see that race, he settled the horse towards the rear, smuggled him into contention and made his challenge before or just after the last.
His handicap mark is 130, which is 3lbs higher than his last winning mark, but he did finish third behind Panic Attack off 131.
Came From Nowhere 3/1 (1pt) – Ayr 4.05
I think Came From Nowhere will be one of the most fancied runners in this race, but I can see him drifting out slightly due to his defeat last time out.
I am a huge fan of this horse, not because he hacked up for us at Ascot when he was tipped on the page, but because I think he has bags of potential. The form lines of his runs this year have been franked multiple times, and his Ascot run made it obvious that he is a Class 1 horse.
He should have won at Newbury if given a proper ride by Lorcan Williams. I rate the jockey, but he tried to win on the bridle, rather than asserting before the final hurdle and got the lengths in hand in case the horse made a mistake. Sure enough, he made a bad mistake and didn't manage to get up in time, losing my small margins.
Jeremy Scott had him entered in the Grade 1 at Aintree last week, but withdrew him because the ground wasn't soft enough. Ayr's course is soft, and they're expecting a few more millimetres of rain, so there's no excuse for him today.
This is a decent race, but if I think he's a Class 1 horse, he has to be winning this.
GambleAware