Cheltenham Day 4 – Lucky 15 Tips

Paul Nicholls and Caldwell Potter didn't disappoint yesterday as a dominant performance from the front got the bet off to a flyer.

Unfortunately, only Sa Majeste managed to place among the rest, which did at least give us a small return. We go again today to try to end the festival on a high. Overall, it's been a very enjoyable watch this week, with plenty of top-class competitors on display and many of the same faces winning.

Attacanter Racing Tips

Valgrand 8/1 five places – 14.00 Cheltenham

Sticking to Cheltenham and the each-way angle, the County Hurdle is unavoidable, thankfully for us either Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton have won this race in nine of the previous ten runnings, with a few entries in this, I'll stick with them.

Kargese was second behind Majborough in the Grade 1 Triumph last year, which, for me, makes him very hard to oppose; he has rock-solid form and dropping into a handicap, carrying a relatively modest weight – the only drawback being the price.

My selection Valgrand is on the slide yet I am going to stick with the Skelton's who have had a decent festival with one winner and three places, two of which in similar big field handicaps.

I hope they've saved another likely type for one of their favourite races to target. Ignoring the market, what I've found interesting is how great a novice season he had, winning on his first three starts, the latter of which was at Cheltenham last October, effectively over C&D, a 17-length procession.

In three subsequent runs he's shown little after a hefty hike in the ratings, our chances seemingly rely on whether or not that was by design.

Three of the yard's four winners in this hadn't been seen since boxing day, which applies again here. Admittedly, he doesn't have the same profile as his previous two winners, who were well-treated, experienced eight-year-olds, but Superb Story won it as a five-year-old, so I won't be put off. The owners are more synonymous with flat racing, with only seven National Hunt horses. This could be a day out, but we'll hope Dan has given them something to shout about.

Rocky's Howya 12/1 four places – 16.40 Cheltenham

The Hunters Chase is the penultimate race on the card, we'll either be looking to get the bet back on track after Ma Shantou or have flocked to the thread to complain – save your breath, it's the fault of the amateur riders! The current market leader won at the festival last year, beating Stumptown in the Kim Muir by a neck. You won't find any better form in the race, and given the older generation has hoovered up this race, there is very little reason to go against the current market leader other than value.

There is little reason to take on the only mare in the field, she'll carry 7lbs less than the entire field despite being the highest rated, the stats show the classier animals obviously tend to do better in this ‘level' weighted fields, 11 of the previous 15 winners were rated 134 or better but I am going to give another chance to a horse who falls 3lbs short of that, last year's 4th Rocky's Howya after a little bit of deliberating.

The horse has only raced once under rules since Cheltenham. He's won between the flags this year, however, and you have to suspect (albeit for them all) that this has been the target, with the proven suitability and a year's more prep, I am happy to risk that he has a bit more to offer, this race being his first try over three miles last year implies he's entitled to do better now, add to that seven of the previous 15 winners were in the top four a year prior and we're good to go.

Wodhooh 5/1 six places – 17.20 Cheltenham

With six places on offer to end the show, my eyes did dim a little, seeing who was leading the market, effectively reliability in abundance, the best owner, the best trainer and a jockey I seldom see but seem to note whenever I do. The fact he makes Wodhooh a 5/1 2nd favourite tells me enough, of course we have to take it on with so much value on offer, I have been waiting for a JP 1-2-3 all week, could it happen here – surely only a matter of time on the evidence of this week.

Despite so much to like on the tin, only one favourite has ever won this race. Most of the winners have had a run in the same year, too, which is another negative. I trust the market more than the stats. Willie Mullins, after all, is the exception to the rule. However, it is his main rival over the years that I am going to side with, perhaps foolishly, given his lack of winners since his antics away from the track.

Wodhooh came onto my radar when I tipped up Joyeuse successfully, I wouldn't typically get carried away with that but the third Take No Chances was also involved in the Grade 1 Mare's Hurdle this week. That race was over today's C&D, the two in behind may have been there for a pipe opener but the fourth has won a Listed race since and I'm happy enough to take that form at face value. The horse hasn't even been beat at is still an each-way price, granted the game isn't this easy but there is little reason to left her untouched in a handicap.

With an unlikely type in Ma Shantou, it might have been wise to find something bigger with so many places on offer, but our faith is with a man who may not have mine next year. The jockey, at least, is a Grade 2 winner and should be capable of producing the horse nicely.

Ma Shantou 28/1 four places – 15.20 Cheltenham

The Albert Bartlett is a fascinating Grade 1 which year after year loves to throw up a big priced winner, given it's prestige, it is the Irish who have ran riot over the years leading 7-3 over the last ten years, winning five of the previous six. Although a few of the home support did catch my eye, Lucinda Russell is looking to add to her tally, whilst a trainer I looked at yesterday has had his horse hammered, having “chased” home the cantering The New Lion at Newbury.

Wendigo's is half-brother to Lossiemouth and Jingko Blue, his trainer besides Git Maker last year, has a bad record here but he's a respected yard with a horse who may well flourish over the distance, I would have thrown him in readily against the Irish but have instead taken a huge punt that you might wish to swap out.

Emma Lavelle is another female trainer with history here with another stayer in Paisley Park, the market don't give them any chance but with Harry Cobden back on board in search of his third win in the race, I don't see any harm trying to go out with a bang.

The price has shortened a bit which I'm not taking as a good thing but Ma Shantou is who we'll throw in in hopes of a shock – in which there haven't been a great deal from my perspective.

Cobden is 2-2 on the horse, his only two wins over obstacles, a half-sibling to Stay Away Fay, there should be improvement to come over the trip having only tried it once when last seen in January at Doncaster. Plenty of improvement is needed just to feature, but his last win at Windsor was effectively hands and heels, so there is hope – with a line through Excello, who others in this have beaten soundly, he can certainly outrun the original 40/1 I selected him at.

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Advised Bet – Eachway L15

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