IT's back to domestic business tonight with a busy card and the usual European leagues to focus on but after a lot of deliberating, I've done a U-turn and can't ignore the price being offered for goals in the Scottish Premiership match between Livingston and Hibs.
Its a crucial match for both but I think the bookies have this wrong, 139/100 for over 2.5 goals looking extremely generous. Hoping to make it 20 winning Naps from my last 25 in Scotland.
Livingston vs Hibs (7.45pm)
Paul Heckingbottom takes his Hibs side to West Lothian with a victory tonight all but securing their place in the top 6. They are in for a tough game though against a Livingston side who outside Rangers and Celtic have the best home record in the league.
Livi certainly take advantage of their plastic pitch with 9 of their 10 victories this season coming at home. They've picked up some impressive results at the Tony Macaroni Stadium, including a 4-0 and 5-0 hammerings of Dundee and Hearts respectively, victory over Rangers, a draw with Celtic and they have already beaten Hibs at home with a 2-1 back in September.
They are a real threat from free-kicks and set-pieces and it would be no surprise to anyone if they got on the score sheet tonight.
Hibs certainly benefited from the new manager bounce and were dead and buried in terms of getting into the top 6 but 4 wins and a draw coupled with the shocking run St Johnstone went on has seen them take a strong grip of that last slot. They'll be backed by 3000+ Hibees and there should be a great atmosphere.
Livi have seen 6 of their last 7 home games go over 2.5 goals and with Hibs revitalised under Heckingbottom and Florian Kamberi and Marc McNulty scoring there's every chance we'll see goals tonight.
- Over 2.5 goals
- 139/100 (MarathonBet) (NAP)
Some thoughts on French Ligue 2
Now into the business end of the season in Ligue 2 and we should start to see games open up with a lot more goals being scored as sides compete for promotion, play-offs and avoiding relegation.
There are 8 games tonight and it's sad to see Sky Bet squeeze the goal total margins. No longer being offered, over 17+ or 19+ but still feel 21+ at 9/4 is worth a punt along with the usual first-half goals and over 1.5 match goals. Shop around as may get bigger prices.
- 21+ goals 9/4 (Skybet)
- All 8 matches goal in the first half 30/1 (Skybet)
- All 8 matches over 1.5 goals 20/1 (Skybet)