LIKE Paddy Power and Antonio Conte I reckon the Premier League title race is done and dusted.
The Irish bookies paid out before Man City won last week's derby and a 4-0 midweek thrashing of Swansea maintained City's 11-point lead over their neighbours.
Conte says City can't lose four games and having won 16 and drawn one of their last 17 he's right.
To put it in perspective no one fancies Rangers for the Premiership crown yet they are five points adrift of Celtic having played a game more.
Tonight City face what could be one of their toughest tests at home to Spurs who ended last season's 10-game unbeaten start but that was at White Hart Lane.
Later the sides drew at the Etihad and while Spurs haven't looked as sharp this season a 5-1 romp against Stoke followed by victory over Brighton has lifted them back into the top four ahead of, ahem, Burnley.
City haven't won in four against the White Hart Lane men but they're in the mood to overcome that stat.
Pep Guardiola's side are a biggest 4-7 at Coral with Spurs 21-4 at McBookie. The fixture has a history of goals – the last 0-0 was in 2010 – and I like City and over 2.5 goals at 11-10 with Ladbrokes.
Both sides are missing key defenders so this should lead to goals. City are still without John Stones and Vincent Kompany is set to miss out. Centre-half Davinson Sanchez remains suspended for Spurs and Toby Alderweireld is injured. Defensive midfielder Victor Wanyama is also sidelined.
City have quality all over the park but recently David Silva has been the star turn. His manager asked for more goals from the midfielder and he's responded with four in three games.
Talking of Burnley they look a value price at a Brighton side winless in 13 and lacking goals.
Burnley struggled on the road last season but this time they have the fifth best away record and the same points as Man United and Liverpool.
Somehow the Seagulls are favourites with Unibet offering a biggest 17-10. Sean Dyche's Burnley should win at a best 12-5 with Marathonbet but play safer with Burnley draw no bet at 32-25 with Marathonbet.
Elsewhere in the Premier League I'm on Leicester at 19-20 with betfair to make it five wins in a row against a Crystal Palace side unbeaten in six under Roy Hodgson.
Watford have suffered a form blip but look good at 4-5 with Betway to beat injury-hit Huddersfield at home.
In the Championship best bets could be Bolton at evens to beat basement boys Burton. Twelve points separate the sides and Bolton's recent home record is strong.
Bristol City should beat Nottingham Forest and goals look on the cards. City and both to score pays 12-5 at Ladbrokes.
Another game that looks good for goals is Cardiff v Hull. Five of Hull's last six have gone over 3.5 goals and another pays 9-5 at Unibet.
Blackburn at home to Charlton and Portsmouth against Bury look best bets in League One while in League Two I like Notts County at home to Grimsby and Luton at Forest Green.
- Man City & over 2.5 goals
- David Silva to score
- Burnley draw no bet
- Bristol City & btts
- Cardiff v Hull over 3.5 goals
- Notts County